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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jelrod3 who wrote (2944)	7/10/1998 11:04:00 PM
From: Jim Switz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5944

jelrod3: But alas, more bad news is undoubtedly on the way, and the price could reach single digits as holders flee the stock for better investments. Lordy, I sure hope not, but we sure don't seem to be catching any breaks so far this year at all, do we? As of tonight, we're down slightly over 75% from the all-time high, but even if you consider mid-40s as a previously-fair valuation, we're down more than 70%. If there's any logic left in the market for this stock and this company, that ought to be enough! But emotion may take over temporarily and squeeze us all some more - sigh. I'm not surprised, I guess, that CFO Paul Hansen is leaving. After 14 years, he's made good money, and I'm sure he doesn't need the heat now nor the prospect of facing shareholders at the August meeting. Handling the conference call in two weeks is going to be uncomfortable enough. I also wonder how much heat the institutional holders are putting on the board to shake things up in management. My guess is that a company priority recently has been guiding the analysts' expectations down for the current and next quarter, and with Robbie Stevens reducing estimates this morning on the heels of Bear, Stearns they seem to have had some success at doing so without crushing the stock price drastically today. An earnings downgrade isn't "good news" but it's probably better than keeping expectations up during a period of very unpredictable earnings swings. So, maybe, just maybe the reported earnings will be close to revised estimates and people will begin to think about a recovery track for revenues, earnings and stock price. I hope to hell that all the acquisition and R&D money has been spent intelligently, and that they begin to pay off pretty damn quickly. Knowledgeable people (no, I won't elaborate, sorry, but not legally-restricted insiders) are indicating to me that things may have bottomed out, but IMHO it's probably a bit too soon to tell if this is indeed the case and when the market will come to the same conclusion. One of my biggest concerns now is what internal damage has been done in terms of lost personnel and difficulty in motivating current people and attracting new ones.

To: jelrod3 who wrote (2944)	7/12/1998 9:45:00 AM
From: jelrod3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5944

More News from the WSJ. This comes as no surprise. But it does underscore the fact that things have got to be gloomy at ADPT from an earnings standpoint. In addition, I view the recent departure of CFO Paul Hansen as a negative. CFO's do not move around much from company to company, and as a general rule, the departure of a CFO is usually a red flag that something is not right. Perhaps Hansen's departure is related to the many pending class action lawsuits. But you can bet your sweet you-know-what that there is something behind his departure that as of yet has not been disclosed to the public. As they say in the WalMart ad, "Watch for falling prices..." July 10, 1998 Disk-Drive Industry's Slump Continued in Second Quarter By CHRISTOPHER GRIMES Dow Jones Newswires The disk-drive industry's slump continued in the second quarter, made worse by weakened demand for personal-computer components. The big U.S. players -- Seagate Technology Inc., Quantum Corp. and Western Digital Corp. -- are all expected to post large earnings declines from their year-ago levels. Western Digital already has warned investors to prepare for a wider loss than had been expected. These companies are fighting increased competition from the likes of International Business Machines Corp., Maxtor Corp., Fujitsu Ltd. and Samsung Group. Making the already tough landscape even worse was a brutal inventory correction in the PC industry, which started early in the first quarter and continued into the second. Compaq Computer Corp., the world's leading PC maker, idled its U.S. plant for two weeks in April to level out its inventories. IBM and Hewlett-Packard Co. also cut back on PC production, analysts said. "Clearly, we saw the continuing impact of the inventory correction, when we had three of the big four computer makers either reducing their build plans or their channel inventories," said Bear Stearns & Co. analyst Andrew Neff. Seagate May Post Profit For the glass-is-half-full crowd, Seagate looks poised to reverse two straight quarters of losses. Todd Bakar, an analyst at Hambrecht & Quist Inc., estimates that Seagate earned 10 cents a share in its fiscal-fourth quarter ended June. The Scotts Valley, Calif., company earned 61 cents a diluted share, excluding charges, in the year-ago quarter. Mr. Bakar said Seagate's cost-cutting measures, which included 15,000 layoffs, have helped its performance. The company also seems to have improved its high-end drive business, a market where its dominance has eroded in the last year. "I think they will turn a profit, albeit a small one," Mr. Bakar said. "The vector is moving in the right direction." Joel Pitt, an analyst at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, said Quantum may have lost money in the competitive desktop-PC drive business. But the Milpitas, Calif., company probably saw "moderate improvement" in its tape business. Quantum "didn't do too badly, [considering] nobody's doing very well," Mr. Pitt said. Mr. Pitt estimates that Quantum earned a penny a share in its fiscal first quarter, compared with 61 cents a diluted share in the like period a year ago. Western Digital Warning Western Digital warned June 9 that it would likely post a loss above $100 million before adding on the additional costs of a licensing agreement with IBM. Mr. Neff is expecting Western Digital to record a loss of about $1.30 a share for the fiscal fourth quarter. The Irvine, Calif., earned 95 cents a share in the year-ago period. Analysts continue to be cautious about recommending shares of the disk-drive companies. Mr. Bakar said he expects a "slow gradual recovery, not the sharp recovery we've seen" from the industry in the past. "Clearly, you've got six strong players competing in the business in the desktop [computer] space," Mr. Bakar said. "Increasingly, people need to look at who's capable of achieving high volumes, low costs with great customer service. Not all six major players will be able to do that." Source: WSJ Online 7-10-98 interactive.wsj.com