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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Weekapaug who wrote (34289)	7/12/1998 6:44:00 AM
From: JBoyd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571800

Buying AMD/Bankruptcy Might sell some of my AMD, but it seems to me that this company has a huge amount of upside potential. Intel has in the past earned close to 40% return on equity. If AMD can do half of that, this stock will soar. Unfortunately, their losses and have been increasing and if they can't manufacture profitably when Dresden comes on line, I think bankruptcy would eventually occur. The questions I am trying to examine are: -Performance. Will they be able to at least stay close to Intel? It seems to me they are close now and in certain instances (games) are ahead. If Intel pulls further ahead in 1999, however, AMD won't have anything to manufacture and a $2 billion dollar facility might be sitting idle; that completely wipes out all equity. -Dresden Financing. Germany is putting up or guaranteeing most of the debt. Given that it certainly is in another subsidiary that could declare bankruptcy and not drag AMD down, the question I don't know is how much of the debt is AMD going to guarantee. I don't think the 10-K or annual report answers this question, but I am going to check into it. -Manufacturing. It seems to me that based on the posts I've been reading AMD's designs are too complicated to be manufactured as efficiently as Intel's. I don't have any idea about the trade off between die size and yield since AMD doesn't say anything about yield. Suspect company would comment on yield if it was a positive trade-off. -Mendicino. Seems like Intel is doing the right thing to counter the K-6 here. Celeron might be good marketing, but I think it is a ripoff. Ali Chen said once that their Intel's marketing was arrogant and I think he was right. -Commoditization. When purchasers are comparing price/value, I don't think many, including businesses, will want top end performance in the future. Games, servers, CAD being the exceptions and I don't know if these will be enough. Do know that it is in box manufacturers interests to make sure AMD stays around though. It shouldn't be money you can't afford to lose, however. In the past I have done very well trading AMD, but the losses I have taken in recent months have hurt an aweful lot.

To: Weekapaug who wrote (34289)	7/12/1998 10:57:00 AM
From: Yousef	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571800

Weekapaug, Re: "I'll keep watching for awhile. Why, the talk about bankruptcy?" I personally have not been talking about bankruptcy ... however ... How many quarters in a row can AMD continue to lose money ?? And, the losses are getting larger each quarter. AMD is 2-3yrs behind Intel in IC process technology and this won't change anytime soon ... In fact, it will get worse as AMD has to cut back on capital spending/R&D. Make It So, Yousef