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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (5147)	7/22/1998 11:50:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

If we're trying to pick a time in history that this "feels" like, I'd say the late '60s and early '70s. No, I don't think so. You didn't have any sort of radical change in technology or structure of the economy unless you want to count the change to an inflation based sort of market. If you put a gun to my head, I would agree with those that look at the 1920's and compare them to today. Now before I have to put on my asbestos underwear, I think you should take a look at some of the radical changes that were made in the 1920's (autos, radio, and telephones and electricity in more widespread use) to today with computers, communications revolution and internet with the corresponding changes in commerce. Ms. Yamada had made some of these points in her most recent book and in an old Barron's article. Throw in a Kondriteif (sp?) cycle plus some generational demographics and I think you have another 5-8 years on the upside before we really blow the lid off this market. That doesn't say we won't have a bear market in the meantime, but the upward trend since the mid 1980's in unlikely to be broken until the demographics change. The fly in the ointment to this arguement is that the world economies are becoming more tightly coupled as the flow of money is less restricted. Consequently the demographic changes in Asia and latin America may soften the blows as the population changes effect Japan, America and Europe with aging populations. Dave BTW, it may be time to learn about hard assets again. If/when this cycle ends (next 5+ years), the commodity/hard assets arenas will once again be the place to be IMO of course.