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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: M.J. who wrote (10874)	8/1/1998 2:11:00 PM
From: GerrieG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

You are forgetting foreign growth? Advertising,advertising,advertising. Shopping-my 15 year old buys her cds on line now,that market can be so unbelievable profit wise once it really takes off,even clothes,furniture,dishes,software,perfume,flowers,cars,airline tickets,unlimited now. Think about it,how does tv make its money,magazines make its money,advertising,huge,huge,huge.I even buy things online now,my husband buys his airline tickets online. Not to mention "you got pictures"! People will be buying their christmas gifts,birthday gifts online directly from their offices. AOL gets a piece of the action and the whole pie is very huge!Look what the brokerage house are paying aol! Real estate, the list goes on and on.......... The reasons above are only a few for me to invest in aol,there are many more. Grant

To: M.J. who wrote (10874)	8/1/1998 3:13:00 PM
From: Dell-icious	Respond to of 13594

You seem to not account for the huge amounts of revenues they are deriving from signing multimillion dollar advertising deals with E*Trade, Unilever etc. The latter is particularly important since it is the first major CPG (Consumer Packaged Goods) company to pour massive amounts of advertising dollars into the internet. Dell-icious

To: M.J. who wrote (10874)	8/1/1998 8:06:00 PM
From: Dom B.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

M.J. ... the market is always right, all the time. Proving the market Wrong! has been costly... Buy 10 shares of AOL @$120 on Monday, then go play your favorite game... That's a small bet with the house, IMHO... Iomega might see its glorious days again... hehehe...//dom

To: M.J. who wrote (10874)	8/2/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: Bharat Kalra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

Your analysis is way offmy friend. The way to value AOL is not on an earnings basis currently, even though it will achieve that level more quickly then people think. The way to value AOL is on a subscriber basis. Let's say AOL currently has 15 million subscribers, which I may add is a very conservative estimate, since at the end of last quarter they had 12 million excluding their compuserv members. AOL has a market cap of $25 billion. This values each subscriber at $1700. This value is much less than what cable subscribers are being valued at. The recent AT&T TCI deal valued each sub scriber at more than $3000. Note this valuation excludes AOL's other sources of income, namely advertising and sponsorships which is proving to be a great source of revenue and income with limited incremental expenses. Note , this is a great business model. Once AOL has built the infrastructure, they collect monthly rents. Note the way they collect their rents, they get their money upfront because they let users pay by credit card. Thus they have huge cashflow they are generating. sorry for thelong blown out anlysis. But anyone that says that AOL is not worth what it is trading for is only fooling themself. I fooled myself until recently, where I was able to get comfortable with the valuation by doing this type of analysis. regards, sonu

To: M.J. who wrote (10874)	8/2/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: Dell-icious	Respond to of 13594

The rest of the world remains. What's more, since they manage the connection time of so many subscribers, they can be the conduit for a lot more purchasing decisions of consumers than they are currently. The E-Trade, Amazon stuff is the tip of the iceberg. Finally, theirs is a subscriber model. DELL and MSFT etc need to keep selling more to keep their money coming in. AOL's revenue frommonth to month is much more assured. AOL is currently making the transition that Microsoft made when it went from the company that sold DOS to the company that sold Windows 95. Go long on AOL. It's going to test it's high again sometime this year.

To: M.J. who wrote (10874)	8/3/1998 2:51:00 AM
From: FACTUAL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

Its because of their business model. Essentially, increased revenues from derivative sources flow directly to their bottom line while capital costs per subscriber decrease at a certain critical mass which they have reached. At this stage increased subscribers has an exponential effect on earnings by increasing subscriber revenues and profits on a fixed capital base as well as increasing derivative revenue streams which flow directly to the bottom line. The only model more leveraged is Yahoo's which has avoided the issues relating to capital costs. For an incredible example, in Yahoo's last quarter fully 88% of increased revenues flowed into profit.