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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (12361)	8/2/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

When you can point to any real trouble in Amazon's execution, and we longs disregard it, then tell us we are wishful thinkers. William, Let's start with the need for more inventory due to gross margins being squeezed by their jobber suppliers. That was not anticipated and the problem will get worse. Next, there is the debt to service. Not in the original plan. Also, more employees are needed due to the increased on hand inventory. Not in the original plan. There is the loss of advertising on very prime sites such as AOL directly not in the original plan. Glenn

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (12361)	8/2/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: Jan Crawley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

When you can point to any real trouble in Amazon's execution, and we longs disregard it, then tell us we are wishful thinkers. Are we discussing the future of Amzn as an on-going business or the price of the stock? Would you comment on the "float", "ownership", and "short interests" issues? from the "long" view.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (12361)	8/2/1998 9:23:00 PM
From: llamaphlegm	Respond to of 164684

William Harmond: You wrote: <<<Being long Amazon is just as intellectually and emotionally challenging as being short. Holding either position is hard work. Wishful thinking is the last practice anyone wants to rely on, and your contention that to disregard your summary of what Amazon or industry experts are saying means that we are therefore involved in wishful thinking is shallow and cynical. When you can point to any real trouble in Amazon's execution, and we longs disregard it, then tell us we are wishful thinkers.>>> No offense, but I have yet to see ANY BULL post anything with the analytical rigor, let alone comprehensiveness, of what Glenn R. posted this afternoon. Instead of getting into a pissing contest with Rob or anyone else, go back and slowly read and re-read what Glenn posted as he alluded to at least 5 different mentions of execution problems (rankings by independent services on cd shopping, Bezos' own concerns about "executive bandwith," the disgruntled employee who was apparently encouraged to adopt used car salesman tactics, the need for more distribution centers, difficulty of getting enough qualified employees for programming, phone lines, management, etc. -- and there are more "real troubles in Amazon's execution." BTW, you might consider the bear argument that even if we assume (and I don't believe for a moment that this is true) that amzn did not currently face execution problems and could grow forever in oh, let's say 8 industries at breakneck speed (something its own ceo denies), there is still not one single element of amzn's strategy that is not replicable given a bit of time and money. LP

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (12361)	8/2/1998 9:52:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

>>None of the above is a brand Do you know anything about marketing? William, I sure do. I own two very successful retail jewelry stores. I have an MBA and marketing is my specialty. Do you know anything about marketing? Glenn

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (12361)	8/3/1998 1:33:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 164684

OK, Amazon.com expects lower margins, slower growth in sales, increased competition by Barnes & Noble and Borders. This is what the company has said. They have warned that there they will need to spend increased amounts to build inventory and facilities and have no current plans to expand markets outside of their core areas of books, music and video. Amazon also warned that this quarter's sales will be flat to marginally improved over last quarter. Although showing a substantial gain over last year, this is expected to be the first quarter in the company's history that sales will not be up considerably from the previous quarter. I hope you do read the posts and articles that point these details out. Contrast that reality with what is needed to justify the current stock price, even if you imagine that we are now in the year 2000. Amazon.com isn't worth $60 in the year 2000 by the concensus sales and earnings estimates. Amazon.com stock is a speculator's popularity contest. You like the promise of the internet and the figment of imagined profits and earnings. This is just a retail merchant company. They aren't even a Real Audio or Vsio, let alone a future Microsoft than many of imagine - just a simple five and dime store. Soon you may be able to buy condoms and tampons there too. Amazon.con does not own much of anything but a fleating bit of excitement.