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Technology Stocks : General Magic -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kevin G. O'Neill who wrote (3280)8/4/1998 1:32:00 PM
From: David  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10081
 
Will this scare some investors. Although this burn rate increase is normal for the phase of business they are in, any pull back in stock price below 6 could cause a sell off. There are too many long positions out there using margin that will cover on the next pullback. I think we were able to hold on well with the bounce off 5 5/8, but that may not be case next time down. Now is the time for the larger investor to show some support for this company and not let the traders take this down. I am a daytrader who also holds a long term position in gmgc. I have not and will not sell short intraday so as to protect my investment. And there have been some great short selling opportunities lately for a daytrader. But I believe in this company and don't wish to kill my IRA. Good luck to all. Let's get this one back above 7



To: Kevin G. O'Neill who wrote (3280)8/4/1998 3:57:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10081
 
<Parekh maintained his market outperform rating on the tiny money-losing Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company.> That's actually a pretty good rating from Goldman Sachs, assuming the outlook for GM is still untested.

I found his numbers a little fascinating.

<If General Magic were able to sign up to 500 Portico subscribers a week by the end of the year, the company could see revenue contributions of $100,000 in the third quarter and $500,000 in the fourth quarter, Parekh wrote.>

If you assume there are abut 21 weeks until year end, at 500 new users a week you would have a client base of 10500, not including beta test customers.

Now, if you divide $500,000 by 10500 you get an average of $47.62 as a quarterly billing, or $15.87 a month. This number seems conservative to say the least. He must be counting in some estimate for churn. Personally, I'd be very surprised if the average monthly charge weren't above $30. I personally have started my account for the $29.99 rate.

Sure seems like it wouldn't take much for his figure to balloon to double.

All in all, I'm very pleased to see Goldman make public statements about how they project the company to do. I think this is a very good sign.

I feel good about averaging down this week. What a bonus. Will probably feel stupid for not buying more, but I can deal with that.

Regards,

Mark



To: Kevin G. O'Neill who wrote (3280)8/4/1998 4:19:00 PM
From: Rubber Man  Respond to of 10081
 
It's expected that it'll cost them more per quarter to promote Portico; nothing new there. However, it's nice to know that Mr Parekh didn't downgrade or drop coverage of GMGC.

I hope the writer quoted the company verbatim in the last line. The key word is "fundamental". Other stocks in similar situation usually comes out with a (moronic) statement such as "we know of no reason why this stock is down".

When a company doesn't care what its stock does day-to-day, indicates to me they're doing their job and not retrieving the latest real-time quotes.

Buy GMGC if you believe in the company, cut back if you're unsure or on margin. Let the recent decline play itself out before deciding what to do. Personally, I'd rather miss a few points going up instead of sweating as it goes down.

OT.. should've, could've, didn't short CCEE.. Now THAT was an opportunity missed.



To: Kevin G. O'Neill who wrote (3280)8/5/1998 12:24:00 AM
From: Jane Hafker  Read Replies (10) | Respond to of 10081
 
This is general information to anyone who actually cares to know, AND DOESN'T ALREADY KNOW IT, and can't read 50 posts to piece it all together. All of these comments were o.k.'d by the Corporate IR at GM's product location, and she didn't feel any of it was not worthy of mention apparently.

I called today to talk to Mr. Markman. Of course I didn't get through to him, but instead of being farmed out to the 415 IR #, they put me through to someone who wasn't there. I kept calling back and saying I can't get anyone, finally I did. A very, very excellent contact named Wendy, who is the inside IR rep.

Was going to do the old Freedom of INformation Act demand for answers to my questions, but she was so obviously real and willing to discuss particulars I just told her that I had questions to ask, and if she went into technical fundamentals, I probably would be lost, but would she mind answering the following questions:

It was my feeling that Bill Gates had pumped the stock up big time and then announbced he was selling off, and had dumped the stock. It seemed like sabatogue to me.

Answer: MSFT is the PREFERRED INVESTOR, and still hold a position.
How large, not at liberty to say. That info may be available. Cautiously added they were still preferred investors with faith in GM. But there is NOTHING UNDER DISCUSSION AT PRESENT AS FOR GROUP ACTIVITY. There is at present no particular magic things being discussed. But the fact is that MSFT only holds 50,000 preferred shares out of the 5 mill traded on Friday and again Monday. Her point--they didn't do squat to cause the dive. The 50,000 shares were simply lost in the panic selling. Not his fault at all, even if they (MSFT) had sold all. That was good to know.

Also Gates and GMGC are very open to mutual discussion in the future of mutually agreeable projects, of course.

So much for the Gates mystique and questions I had.

Yes, he was very responsible for the move up, she more or less agreed, and the move down no so much. She was rather subdued on the Bill Gates thing, actually.

So, what was it then, I asked?

Answer: they were as shocked and as hard hit as everyone. She agreed that the Corp. office was about like the threads, in shock and reeling, trying to figure out what had cuased it all. Some MMing, of course, she said, and the margin call at the end of the month hurt.

So I said I had posted out on the SI thread that it seemed to me the option announcement hurt as there was an almost immediate small dive along with the options announcement. I told her it seemed to me that a lot of people pulled cash, went to options and were holding the cash as a cushion against bad luck, should the fortune in options fall through.

Answer: This had been discussed at their damage accessment meetings. They too felt the option move had had a reverse affect on the stock, and looking back they can see that. She agreed it was very possible there COULD HAVE BEEN a lot of greedy transfer of money, and more or less agreed completely with me, actually. I said, so I'm not that far off in this? No.

I said, I CAN'T BELIEVE YOU GUYS ANNOUNCED THE LOSS OF .82 IN THE SAME 24 HOUR PERIOD AS THE RELEASE OF PORTICO, KNOWING THAT THE SLIGHTEST PROBLEM WITH ANYTHING ABOUT PORTICO WOULD CUASE A MASS SELLING OFF IN PANIC.

She agreed completely, and that had also been recent topic of much y discussion during damage control assessment. It was planned ages ago to release Portico. That date was set in stone. The fact that the earnings release had to fall at the same time was a blunder they had not anticipated, and she seemed very, very unhappy also at the PPPPPP. She was geniunely chagrined talking bout it and they had all been discussing just that apparently yesterday and today.

So I said, another thing I asked on the threads (and made it clear to her I got answers so it didn't matter), was that the Advertising Agency was a complete no-show. WHAT HAD HAPPENED? WHy not?
Why no ads showing how wonderful Portico is in big beautiful slick commercials?

Answer: The Advertising agency, Sacci and wahtever, was part of a very tailored and well thought out progressive roll out as probably known by most here. Or one or two. Whatever. The first wave is 3 channel resellers (my notes?) so GM could have complete hands on control, work out kinks and not get oversold and flounder. Second wave is through Tele-Com co's when all works perfect. 3rd is basically the Sacci advertisement campaign for the Christmas huge buying season, which they call the 4th Quarter release, and this is to bundle with whatever else is the third leg. Well thought out. No advertising is actually completely on schedule with what they hope will be a brilliant release plan.

I said there was a lot of trouble investors had noted on threads, resellers absent, mixed up, answering machines instead of salesman,& blah blah. She said that word got to corporate through investors the first day. They had direct contact back out to all re-seller offices within the 24 hours. Already there are beefed up training sessions and everything possible to meet the demand.

This is allowing GM to totally manage the roll out themselves at this stage. As you all know, and have discussed here.

I said, I wonder how much the net crazies and a wild army of SOESs, which never existed, and follow each other like lemmings are hurting things? Or are they? I think they are, I said.

Answer: they are well aware of this and the damage it can do, but it is almost out of their hands. Their answer is the Markman memo. To stay ON THE CORPORATE WEB SITE AND STAY AWAY FROM NET INSANITY.

She seemed very pleased I had called to get the answers myself.
They would like to be able to jump on the major threads where most of the shark feeding frenzies and groups racing after each other without really thinking appear (my words of course) but they cannot. This would mean having a full time person doing just that. It is out of the question and can't be done. Only answer is to stay close to the actual corporate website as everything they can post will be going there in Markman's memos. This is his way of fighting a monster he cannot control, apparently. This is not corporate slick hype. He's real about it.

She said that all at Corp. are thrilled with the good news of the initial sales and response coming in from resellers. WITHOUT EQUIVOCATION OR GUARDING HER WORDS SHE SAID THEY ARE THRILLED AND HAPPY AND ITS GOING GREAT. NO SNAGS NO LONG FACES NO WORRY ANYWHERE.

I said that 3 years ago an honest IR person had had a warning in her voice to me about buying GMGC at that time since Motorola's dreams of huge sales of MagicCap had tumbled and took GMGC with it. Down all the way to $1.00. She knew all about that, of course, and agreed immediately. Said that now it was like a brand new company, with a brand new direction. They are not looking at any of the past as a possible repeat, and slipping to $1-2 seemed unworthy of discussion. It was their feeling that the turning around at 6 l/2 was an excellent healthy sign. Still in shock, they were greatly relieved and hope this is in fact the bottom.

There is NO SELLING AT GMGC. PERIOD.

So, what about Motorola, I ask. Isn't it possible that it will rise to the very top again and take GMGC with it? She said that's very interesting since they had just finalized the licensing of StarFish. She tried to explain. I told her I was a techno dope and didn't care, was just in it for the money, so to speak, and the main jist is that they are NOT in competition, for pete's sake. Where did anyone get the competition thing? Her comment was that the whole voice and date sector is growing (understatement) and that GMGC and Motorola both had visions of being very much a part of it.

This conversation involved NO COMMENTS ON COMPETING WITH MOT. But more on the fact that Motorola could avail itself at this point with ALL of GMGC's technology. Therefore, things in the future could develop nicely as they once did with the Magic Cap thing that failed miserably due to reasons I no longer remember or care to remember.

It was a great conversation, with a very real person.

Told her it made me sick I didn't have beaucoup bucks to dump back in it, and she laughed and said she felt the same.

She even called me back, to answer a phone message I had left with an Admin. person, and was not positive whether or not it was me. That showed me they were really into damage control and taking care of business thoroughly.

I love this company.