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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: betty moyers who wrote (12747)8/6/1998 1:24:00 PM
From: AlienTech  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 23519
 
Guess this means anyone who bought above 10 is dead..



To: betty moyers who wrote (12747)8/6/1998 1:27:00 PM
From: AlienTech  Respond to of 23519
 
DISCLAIMER

THIS MESSAGE IS INTENDED FOR THE RECIPIENT ONLY. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE ON ANY OF OUR PICKS GIVEN THE INFORMATION PROVIDED BELOW. THE INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT IS NOT GUARANTEED TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS. WE ARE NOT INVESTMENT ADVISORS AND WILL NOT ASSUME ANY RESPONSIBILITY TO DECISIONS MADE. NEITHER INFORMATION OR OPINION EXPRESSED CONSTITUTES A SOLICITATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY EQUITY DISCUSSED. PLEASE SEEK INDEPENDENT PROFESSIONAL ADVICE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS. WE DO NOT GET COMPENSATED BY THE COMPANIES FEATURED IN THE NEWSLETTER AND WE DO NOT TRADE STOCKS AT ALL.

________________________________________________
PHARMACEUTICAL LABORATORIES
Symbol : PHLB (OTC BB)
Website : http:/www.phlb.com
IR : George Baucom 1-800-856-7040
Email : phlb@interconnect.net
Fully outstanding : 9.6 million (6.4 million restricted by rule 144)
Public float : Approximately 3 million
Share price : $2.00


With all the major markets going in a tailspin, the smart money should start flowing into the small cap stocks now and we are presenting an ideal candidate that is just beginning to be noticed.


CONVENTIONAL INVESTING WISDOM


Conventional Investing wisdom calls for investing in solid companies with good management, high insider ownership, tight floats and a niche product market that is/will be the trend of the future. The trick to making the easy money in these stocks is to get in before the crowd does and do your due diligence quick enough before the company starts releasing its solid fundamentals to the public masses.


We feel we have uncovered a stock like that which is relatively unheard of until lately when we heard that certain Canadian groups as well as US funds have been sniffing around at this company. We have been watching PHLB for some time now and we feel the time is here for this company that will open many eyes. We feel the time is close for this stock as the markets took a serious correction in the last 2 weeks and the stock has been manipulated by market makers as they are very much short on the stock, however the supply on this stock is very tight as most if not all shareholders are believers in the company and rightly so.

UNCONFIRMED RUMORS - THE SAVVY STUFF

We are very excited about PHLB for several reasons as you one can see. However, in doing our due diligence we have uncovered a lot of unconfirmed information on the stock which is not public. We will give you certain information we have heard through the grapevines which is making us very excited about PHLB in the very short term. Please note that these are unconfirmed rumors only but come from fairly good sources.

1) Strong consistent positioning from a big funding group out of Canada in the last few weeks.
2) Big short position about to come to surface with the above positioning. - The following market makers are short in the hole from our very good brokerage sources : Sharp Securities, Knight securities, Wien Securities, and Paragon. The increased volume lately is because the MM market makers lately have been trying to suck in as much cheap stock at these levels as they know a move is imminent on the strong fundamentals ! .
3) A very big marketing campaign to bring awareness of the companies products to the entire US and Canadian market including television and radio adds (slots)
4) Mutual fund managers and analysts calling the company for prospectuses.
5) Several new stores coming onside to join the distribution channel of their highly successful products.
6) A Possible equity involvement from a major company.
7) This one is a far shot at this time but PHLB might be looking at a potential acquisition.

INCREASING REVENUE and HIGH MARGIN PROFITABILITY

The company has reported revenues of $2 million already up to April 1998 with a net profit for the first 4 months in 1998 of $230,000 ! We have heard through our good sources that the company might release their 6 month financials any day now. We will send a flash as soon as they are released. Their gross margins on their product line is roughly 35 % ! The company showed a loss last year as it charged all of it's R & D, new plant facilities, automated equipment and warehouse costs.

THESE EXPENSES HAVE ALL BEEN CHARGED AND NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT PURE PROFIT MARGIN AND STRONG GROWTH FOR PHLB !

Furthermore, the company has cash in the bank to do all the advertising, market awareness program it needs to do here in the short term to get its products the recognition out there.

NEWS RELEASE August 4th 1998

Read the release carefully below. This release is very significant as WE HAVE HEARD THAT THIS MAJOR SUPERSTORE HAS AS OVER 3000 RETAIL OUTLETS IN THE US ALONE ! A nationwide introduction of LIQUID SOLUTIONS will add several millions to its bottom line this year alone.

We predict PHLB should continue with solid good news releases from here onwards probably several strong ones including a couple of surprise announcements.

THE COMPANY AND THE PRODUCT

Pharmaceutical Laboratories, Inc. (PHLB) is an aggressive well-managed company on the verge of establishing its dominance in the lucrative market of vitamin and health supplement products. The vitamin and nutritional supplement sales are currently estimated at $9.8 billion per year, with a annual growth rate of 10% -12%.

PHLB'S NICHE MARKET

What sets PHLB apart from the rest ? The company has successfully engineered unique vitamin and herbal products that are different from all the rest. Their products are MUCH MORE effective than the rest of them out there as shown by marketing studies. The company specializes in liquid and liquid sublingual products. The company recently started marketing its products under the brand name " LIQUID SOLUTIONS". Prior to this, the company used to sell its products under the names of the various companies it used to deal with but realized that this was a very lucrative business and decided to go with its own brand name for worldwide recognition and bigger profitability. To date their products are far outperforming its competitors products with a market share that is continuously on the rise.

For more information on their products Visit their website at phlb.com

DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS

Current distribution channels for PHLB's products are Drug chain stores such as Walgreens, Eckerds, Grocery stores such as Tops, HEB, Independent drug stores, Independent health stores, Health care professionals e.g. doctors, chiropractors, nutritionists, Health clubs, spas and salons.

Also remember that the LIQUID solutions have just been introduced in the US market and the marketing campaign has not even begun yet.

MANAGEMENT
phlb.com

Very strong management with leadership skills who have high equity ownership in the company and are committed to making PHLB a world leader and producer and distributor of liquid vitamins and other related liquid health products in the North American marketplace. The company is already off to a head start as can be seen by their revenues and profits to date. A key factor to see how successful a company will be is to see how much ownership management has and if their stock is restricted. Management in the case of PHLB has roughly around 7.5 million shares of which 6.4 million of them are pooled and cannot be sold.

NEW BIGGER PLANT : INCREASED DEMAND

The company showed a loss last year as it charged all of its R &D cost, New production plant, Warehouse costs, and Automated equipment in 1997. The new plant is approximately 30,000 square feet and is situated on two acres. The reason for this is obvious as they are anticipating big growth in the coming months because of all the alliances they will be forming with the major superstores.

An added bonus is that this new plant will lower their costs and increase their gross margins. An additional 15,000 square feet is available on four acres near the main manufacturing facility. This property was acquired in anticipation of future expansion.

PROJECTED REVENUES/EARNINGS

PHLB has projected revenues of $10 million for 1998, which is a very conservative number. Sales are expected to double in fiscal 1999, as management expects the addition of major chain contracts including nationwide drug store chains and superstores.

Assuming these contracts are put into place, and growth continues at the pace it has been, sales levels are expected to reach $27 million in 2000 and $42 million by 2002. The company is confident that these estimates are quite conservative and that it could reach these levels sooner than anticipated.

At the current rate of sales and growth, PHLB may realize a profit of $1.5 million this year! With 9.6 million shares outstanding, this translates into an impressive 0.16 EPS (earnings per share). When we apply industry average multiples, which range from 35.6 to 41.1, we can safely assume that PHLB is indeed extremely undervalued and has explosive growth potential.

SUMMARY

In doing the analysis for PHLB, we looked at all the above factors and we feel that the awareness on this stock is just beginning as can be seen by the pick up in the volume and announcements of alliances, strong numbers and needless to say other strong happenings with the company behind the scenes which should surprise many in the short term. Just like when we presented our other stocks with perfect timing in terms of price gains and fundamentals, PHLB is at that crucial stage right now. Market makers are trying to suck in as much stock as they can as they know that this stock is primed to move aggressively to the upside very shortly. We feel the downside here is almost nil judging from the past activities of the stock and the pattern and the upside? It could surprise many right about now :)

____________________________________________
August 4th 1998 Press Release

PHLB Press Release.
*****************************
Pharmaceutical Laboratories Inc. Completes a Successful Market Test of
Its "Liquid Solutions" Product Line

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 4, 1998-- Pharmaceutical
Laboratories Inc. (OTC BB:PHLB - news) President and CEO Jerry McClure
was pleased to announce the results of a trial sales test with a major
U.S. superstore chain measuring market acceptance for the new line of
liquid vitamin and herbal products sold under the brand name, ''Liquid
Solutions.''

The test-market was conducted over an eight-week period on a regional
basis in 74 of the chain's Texas outlets. According to management,
results far exceeded expectations.

The 74 stores averaged more than $11,000 per week in retail revenues
over the eight-week test period. This represents approximately $1,200
per store, bringing the total dollar sales for the select stores in
excess of $89,000. If these results were to be magnified to every outlet
of the national chain and supported with a marketing campaign, yearly
sales for that sole chain would be significant to the Company's annual
revenues.

Only a select few products from the ''Liquid Solutions'' line were
introduced. From the list of more than 100 available products, the
partial list included the B-Total Solution, the Company's best seller,
and four herbal Liquid Solutions -- Ginseng, St. John's Wort, Echinacea
and Ginkgo Biloba. Other ''Liquid Solutions'' products featured were
Calcium, Vitamin C and Multi-Vitamin.

According to Sherell L. Boren, the Company's National Sales Manager, the
''Liquid Solutions'' line is ready for national introduction to the
industry and, based upon the successful regional test-market results,
the line should be well received.

McClure also stated that ''the Company has received a multitude of
positive responses from the questionnaire cards inserted in every
product's packaging, expressing the consumer's satisfaction and
appreciation that a quality liquid vitamin line is now available.''

Pharmaceutical Laboratories Inc., with offices in Arlington, Corpus
Christi and Harlingen, Texas, specializes in the development,
manufacturing and marketing of liquid nutritional products.
Pharmaceutical Laboratories Inc. is listed on the OTC Bulletin Board
under the symbol PHLB.

Contact: George Baucom, Investor Relations, 800/856-7040
3117 Cabaniss Pkwy, Corpus Christi, Texas 78415 or visit the Company's
Web site at phlb.com

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
of 1955: Statements in this news release looking forward in time involve
risks and uncertainties, and actual results may be materially different.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ include activity
levels in the securities markets and other risk factors such as customer
order rates, cancellations, late delivery of customer components,
production delays, dependence upon certain customers, dependencies upon
key executives, viability of quarterly results, single operating
facility, competition, product liability risk, control by management,
foreign currency fluctuation and other risks detailed in the Company's
applicable SEC filings.



To: betty moyers who wrote (12747)8/6/1998 2:03:00 PM
From: VLAD  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23519
 
betty,

IMO the Viagra hype is still in force.

Remember what Edderd told us.

How can you expect refills if the new scripts are so low?

I suspect that most of the news are really old customors running out of refills.

Assuming that about 2000 of the new/refill numbers are regular cutomers and the average MUSE script lasts 6 weeks and IMS numbers reflect 60% of actual, we can estimate that MUSE has about 20000 regular post Viagra customers.

IMO there is much room for growth if the PCPs can be educated about MUSE.

Let's face it, its much more of a hassle/embarassment for a doctor to deal with MUSE than Viagra but the docs (such as Zebra) who are concerned about their patients well being will give the extra time to offer the MUSE alternative.



To: betty moyers who wrote (12747)8/6/1998 5:22:00 PM
From: DaiS  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 23519
 
Betty,

I have thought a lot about what the script numbers mean. I reproduce
below part of a message I posted a long time ago. We need to know
precisely what a "refill" means and also how frequently people have
sex. Note that the viagra refills have also levelled now even though
there are many "news" each week. I do think that recruitment for muse
is not as high as it ought to be given appropriate instruction and
promotion - but it could be higher than we think if people don't have
sex very often. Vivus boasted in one of their recent press releases
that 600,000 men had try muse - in this light the apparently low
refills might seem frightening, but not necessarily.

DaiS

*******

..........

I have made some progress with the other question, how many men who
try muse stick to it. I built a model of the script data. Please tell
me if you think the assumptions of this model are wrong.

I took all the data since muse was introduced and trimmed off the
viagra period and the few early weeks of muse to give a 52 week
period.
Total: news=653177 repeats=199503

Now check, I assumed that every man who tried muse would take up 1 new
script. If he decided to continue he would then get another
prescription from his doctor in which the first script written down on
the piece of paper would be treated by the pharmacist as a new and K
others written down would be repeats. When this was finished he would
return to his doc for another and so on. I assumed that the first
script for each man would be a six pack, and that each man recruited
as a regular user would use P packs per year. Thus P=2 would be sex
once a month, P=10 sex a little more often than once a week. I can
change the model if I'm wrong.

I used the model to predict the % of men who try muse that are
recruited as regular users, given P, K, and the above totals. N is
number of men trying muse, predicted by model. These are the results.

Tabulated is % recruitment


P=2 P=5 P=10 P=20 N
K=1 88 22 10 5 454,000
K=2 54 14 6 3 553,000
K=3 45 11 5 2 587,000

The results tell me that those who claim that not many men are being
recruited could be wrong, the value for % recruitment is very
sensitive to the parameters of the model. It could be much greater
than 10%, if men have sex between once a week and once a month.




To: betty moyers who wrote (12747)8/6/1998 9:32:00 PM
From: Sal Milani  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23519
 
Betty::<A logic problem> In your example, the number of refills in week 6 should be half of week 2 new scripts or 47.5, then 45 for week 7, and 42.5 for week 8. If one-half drop out at every refill, in week 9, one-fourth of week-1-new are ready for the second refill and the total refills is 65. At week 16, those that remain from the first group of patients will be on their third refill and the total refills will be 51.875 instead of your 432.5.
With one half dropping out at every refill, the total refills is approximately equal to the number of new scripts after about 20 weeks in your example.
I hope this helps.
Sal