*AV*--Might as well put this out now since I just finished and may not wake up early enough in the morning.
Radar Trader Newsletter
Scan List- High Tech Commentary
August 19 1998
16 of 65 stocks make this list. Due to some electronic issues, the stocks were not grouped for you today.
MUEI(16-3/16,+1 7/16)-seems to be the beneficiary of the great news released by Dell Computer(DELL) today relative to earnings and yet another 2 for 1 split.
biz.yahoo.com
Let's not forget that MUEI has rolled out a new wave of advertisements with a new aggressive twist and some strong commentary on how they will compete with the big boys. And finally add to this the other announcements today that try to push MUEI into the forefront of people's minds and you have a very effective media blitz. Or is a well planned out course of events to herald in an impending sale of the company to an interested party. The company has be for sale for awhile and maybe this is the first aggressive step to proving its worth and setting up the new owners for success. At 4X normal trading volume you see that they news was either well received or that their was follow through to MUEI from the DELL news releases.
dailynews.yahoo.com
dailynews.yahoo.com
biz.yahoo.com
biz.yahoo.com
Of course, one thing does make you wonder. How did we get all this volume today when the news articles of particular interest were all released AFTER the market close. Those that chose to jump aboard this train were well rewarded today and are up close to 25% over the past 6 trading days. A very good positional trade has resulted from this.
TAVA(7-3/32,+1 17/32) and ALYD(11-3/8,+1 7/8) saw some good price appreciation today as these YR2000 stocks became a focus on the #radartrading channel. ALYD is on a tear from $9 on Monday when it was rumored that some heavy selling might come in from 1 institution that was probably responsible for the fall from $12-$13 to the low $9s over the past week or so. With the ALYD CEO going public with his desire to buy shares for his personal account and the behind the scenes work by some investors to boost retail sales and to take out the institution causing the trouble, there is an aggressive move to push this stock back to its $15 comfort zone. It looks as if the market is successfully absorbing the overhead and that today's 2X increase in average daily volume, most of the offending stock seems to have been re-cycled into stronger hands. This stock was a play discussed privately as events unfolded over the weekend. Interestingly enough there has been a steady increase in the short position on this stock over the past few months. We might be seeing some short covering going on in order to prepare for some decent announcements that may be coming over the next few weeks.
MAST(25-5/8,+1 5/8)-moved nicely today for those that were inclined to get involved. No real news but seems this is moving in concert with the other YR2000 stocks appearing on this list. MAST may have been on the list yesterday but if not, it was part of the commentaries from late last week, making this yet another profitable positional trade.
ERICY(26-7/16,+1 _)--Ericsson Receives $77 Million Order For 136 Network Expansion in Argentina biz.yahoo.com may have something to do with the rise price today. However, this stock has been on radar for a few days and presented profits to those that jumped aboard this train when we first brought it to your attention at just under $23. More importantly, this stock still needs to refill a the gap that occurred between $32 and $28. Expectations are to see $30 for this stock as business firms up and as more contracts such as today's are announced. As the Asian Crisis improves, markets and business will blossom and reap good benefits for shareholders. Very attractive mid to long term investment with positional trading possibilities in the short term.
ADTN(28-5/8,+3)-a competitor to PAIR which has become attractive to some traders over the past day or two. ADTRAN is a leading provider of system solutions for delivering digital transmission technologies over existing telecommunications infrastructures. The company developed cost-effective, high-performance equipment that transforms copper wire local loops into high-speed
digital networks. Something is up with this stock since it has traded more than 2X it's normal daily trading volume. This move will most likely turn out to precede some news of significance.
CMOS(20-1/2,+1 «)-Trading at 1.5X average daily volume, CMOS poses a dilemma. It seems to be riding on a positive wave even though its financials are not stellar. As a matter of fact, the financials were released prior to the close and were horrid. biz.yahoo.com
biz.yahoo.com Granted most of the loss was attributed to one time charges associated with the restructuring of the company related to facilities, writedowns, and severance packages in addition to reserves to reflect the recent slowdown in their semiconductor test equipment business. The prospects of a $20M stock buyback program may be the ray of sunshine here along with the perception that CMOS has bottomed out and may finally be on the road to recovery. Trading $4 above its 52 week low now $35 below its 52 week high, this stock has no where to go but up??? Aug 5th may have been the bottom with 9 days trending up. The test equipment business is still shaky and making comparisons to both TER and KLIC(a member of this list today) seem to indicate they are acting in concert with each other. Well worth watching all 3 for divergence.
biz.yahoo.com
KLIC(18-5/8,+1 1/8)-up 7/8 from the open for this stock which appeared on yesterday's list. This was a good daytrade for some people yesterday. Seems to have moved in concert with TER and CMOS, as discussed above.
AMCC(26-1/2,+1 3/8)-makes a second appearance this week on the list and opened at the same price as yesterday's close providing those daytraders and positional traders with more than $1 profit today. AMCC received favorable press in the recent August issue of INFRASTRUCTURE. Stock had a $2 trading range while trading at 2X average daily trading volume.
SPYG(12-15/16,+1 11/16) is yet another stock that appeared on the list yesterday that followed through again today. Stock did gap open 1-1/4 making the rise in price meaningless to anyone unless they jumped on this stock yesterday when it appeared in this newsletter. SPYG traded 11x-12X (yes that much) normal average trading volume. There was a run to this stock today as the herd mentality took over as mentioned in yesterday's commentary. Considering the gap up today prior to the open and the herd's stampede to this stock, you have the makings for some disappointment if and when this luster rubs off. Even the news blurb today was worded to support the herd mentality. "Internet software maker Spyglass Inc. (SPYG) added 1-11/16 to 12-15/16 as investors continued to cheer Monday's deal with Motorola.
AKLM(7-3/8,+1/4)-This stock gapped up at the open denying profits to those that were not previously invested. Trading at over 3X average daily volume AKLM was rather stable but is definitely forming a new base in the low 7s. A news release by RTIME, Inc. today may help boost sales for AKLM for its upcoming product releases by allowing improved internet and LAN gaming between players. biz.yahoo.com
SMOD(21-3/8,+3 9/16)-This is one that got away. I do not recall this on the list recently but it is a flash form the past. Be that as it may, it is a stock that I personally have watched and steered clear of due to all the lawsuits that have been filed. Trading 3X average daily volume and a 20% run up in one day make this stock worth watching even closer. Watch for news and react accordingly. I am watching for a downside to this stock but I cannot rule out some out of character buying of this stock preceding some good news. I can't straddle the fence so I still think decline but I will definitely watch from the sidelines. I choose not to play since this stock is easily manipulated and has a "grey area" connotation for me as hype. Spam and some possible unethical situations that have occurred in the past. On the list but I really have no interest in getting involved. Too many more positive prospects with much less ambiguity.
MCHP(30-1/8,+2 1/8)-ALTR(40-15/16,+2 3/8)-ADPT(14-1/2,+5/8)---3 IC providers to the industry all performing well today. ALTR gets a lift from yesterday's news release relative to a production worthy 0.25u process and coverage initiated by Golman Saks today.
biz.yahoo.com
ADPT and MCHP, frequent members of this list over the past few weeks are looking as if they have bottomed out. These 3 IC providers are part of a larger group of IC stocks that seem to be showing some life. While the recovery may not be underway, we are starting to see signs of life here. I think we are about 1 quarter away from the real recovery which will then filter down to the equipment sector sometime in the early part of 1999. While we should be in a wait and see posture, it is important to monitor the trading patterns of the top 20 IC companies that span all the various types of device technology.
LRCX(19-5/16,+1 1/8)-one of the only equipment stocks on this list related to front end processing. Prior to seeing it on this list my feeling was that this stock lagged the advances made by NVLS, KLAC, and AMAT on Monday. I see them as being the first to fall backward. I plan to watch this stock at the open for possibly a minor move up prior to retracing back to the high 17s to low 18s. LRCX has nothing to be proud of in my opinion and moved in sympathy with the big boys, even though it might be undeserved.
AND NOW A WORD FROM OUR SPONSOR:
First of all, I had both telecom and PC issues tonight causing me to lose work that was not saved. This resulted in my having to redo some items and make some timeframe errors. I realize that I have used the word Yesterday erroneously since it actually refers to both Monday and Tuesday of this week. So when looking at comparisons forgive the error. You have 3 issues now so you can easily refer back to the two issues see which yesterday I was really referring to.
DELL has announced its 6th split in 6 years. I think it is about time we all recognize that the computer is as much a part of our society as the car, fast food, and over priced athletes. DELL, MSFT, and INTC are as ingrained in our culture as Coke, MacDonalds, and General Motors. How long have we denied the PC and the semiconductor industry their birthright and place within the fabric of society.
PAIR has traded at 66% of its normal daily trading volume but moved up « today. In light of the nice rise in its competitor's price today, ADTN(+3), I am psotulating that a sympathy move up in price by PAIR is conceivable. PAIR has been mentioned on the channels as being attractive yesterday.
VTSS-a very interesting situation (But we will call it an official rumor) is starting to pop up here. VTSS is a leading supplier of GaAs technology for certain industries. One such industry is the microprocessor IC tester equipment. VTSS supplies devices, I believe, to the suppliers INTC's tester equipment. INTC is very dependent on the availability of these ICs for the testers they need for their advanced products. Therefore, INTC has more than a passing interest in making sure VTSS delivers the necessary products to INTC's suppliers. But does this explain the possible hordes of INTC employees swarming around the VTSS facility?? INTC is doing real well relative to stock price these days and can very easily afford to go out on an acquisition buying spree. The y have been rumored to be interested in Symbios prior to Hyundai, and recently ADPT and a few others. However, INTC's fortunes could be tied to the success of VTSS being able to deliver IC devices to the microprocessor test equipment sector. With that much at stake, I wouldn't be surprised to see INTC make a few overtures to VTSS to ensure future prosperity.
ALYD-There is more here than meets the eye.
REFR and ESFT deserve your time over the weekend for information gathering and general thoughts.
Andrew Vance
******************************
Prosearch 5.0* Top Stock Report
08/18/98
******************************
2> MUEI - MICRON ELECTRONICS INC COM .DCS
Price= 16.2 ( 65) AvgVl= 1011.4 ( 98) 1-Dy = 109.7 ( 98)
2-Dy = 111.6 ( 98) 3-Dy = 115.6 ( 98) 4-Dy = 113.1 ( 98)
1-Wk = 118.8 ( 98) VL/30= 352.2 ( 98) 2/30 = 197.5 ( 92)
3/30 = 147.1 ( 86) 4/30 = 125.6 ( 80) 5/30 = 120.1 ( 77)
%Rnge= 79.0 ( 66) DRAvg= 72.0 ( 92) ConDy= 3.0 ( 99)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
3> TAVA - TAVA Technologies Inc COM .DSE
Price= 7.1 ( 19) AvgVl= 501.8 ( 96) 1-Dy = 127.5 ( 99)
2-Dy = 138.4 ( 99) 3-Dy = 142.7 ( 99) 4-Dy = 140.1 ( 99)
1-Wk = 140.9 ( 99) VL/30= 306.3 ( 97) 2/30 = 232.6 ( 94)
3/30 = 187.2 ( 92) 4/30 = 148.2 ( 86) 5/30 = 131.3 ( 82)
%Rnge= 90.0 ( 74) DRAvg= 60.0 ( 77) ConDy= 3.0 ( 99)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
4> ERICY - ERICSSON L M TEL CO A D R .TES
Price= 26.4 ( 84) AvgVl= 5924.1 ( 99) 1-Dy = 107.0 ( 97)
2-Dy = 111.0 ( 98) 3-Dy = 114.3 ( 98) 4-Dy = 108.1 ( 96)
1-Wk = 113.0 ( 97) VL/30= 159.6 ( 91) 2/30 = 151.9 ( 86)
3/30 = 160.3 ( 88) 4/30 = 152.2 ( 87) 5/30 = 144.8 ( 86)
%Rnge= 100.0 ( 99) DRAvg= 57.0 ( 71) ConDy= 3.0 ( 99)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
11> ADTN - ADTRAN INC COM .TES
Price= 28.6 ( 86) AvgVl= 240.8 ( 92) 1-Dy = 111.7 ( 98)
2-Dy = 111.4 ( 98) 3-Dy = 107.5 ( 95) 4-Dy = 116.5 ( 98)
1-Wk = 120.8 ( 98) VL/30= 249.6 ( 96) 2/30 = 139.7 ( 83)
3/30 = 119.8 ( 78) 4/30 = 136.7 ( 83) 5/30 = 119.8 ( 77)
%Rnge= 100.0 ( 99) DRAvg= 73.0 ( 92) ConDy= 1.0 ( 70)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
14> CMOS - CREDENCE SYSTEMS CORP COM .EEE
Price= 20.5 ( 75) AvgVl= 221.9 ( 91) 1-Dy = 107.8 ( 97)
2-Dy = 112.3 ( 98) 3-Dy = 116.3 ( 99) 4-Dy = 108.6 ( 96)
1-Wk = 113.8 ( 97) VL/30= 197.9 ( 94) 2/30 = 146.1 ( 84)
3/30 = 120.3 ( 79) 4/30 = 106.2 ( 71) 5/30 = 118.7 ( 76)
%Rnge= 98.0 ( 78) DRAvg= 59.0 ( 74) ConDy= 3.0 ( 99)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
17> AMCC - APPLIED MICRO CIRCUITS CP COM .ESE
Price= 26.5 ( 84) AvgVl= 337.5 ( 94) 1-Dy = 105.4 ( 95)
2-Dy = 113.0 ( 98) 3-Dy = 107.0 ( 95) 4-Dy = 106.0 ( 93)
1-Wk = 108.7 ( 94) VL/30= 195.8 ( 94) 2/30 = 145.1 ( 84)
3/30 = 119.3 ( 78) 4/30 = 109.8 ( 73) 5/30 = 115.7 ( 75)
%Rnge= 81.0 ( 68) DRAvg= 57.0 ( 71) ConDy= 2.0 ( 95)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
21> SPYG - SPYGLASS INC COM .INT
Price= 12.9 ( 53) AvgVl= 427.8 ( 95) 1-Dy = 114.9 ( 99)
2-Dy = 131.0 ( 99) 3-Dy = 125.4 ( 99) 4-Dy = 124.6 ( 99)
1-Wk = 126.6 ( 99) VL/30= 787.8 ( 99) 2/30 = 602.9 ( 99)
3/30 = 410.4 ( 98) 4/30 = 314.6 ( 98) 5/30 = 254.9 ( 97)
%Rnge= 63.0 ( 54) DRAvg= 51.0 ( 58) ConDy= 2.0 ( 95)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
32> AKLM - ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT INC COM .LTG
Price= 7.4 ( 20) AvgVl= 589.1 ( 96) 1-Dy = 103.5 ( 91)
2-Dy = 108.7 ( 97) 3-Dy = 109.2 ( 96) 4-Dy = 109.2 ( 96)
1-Wk = 120.4 ( 98) VL/30= 289.7 ( 97) 2/30 = 226.7 ( 94)
3/30 = 188.2 ( 92) 4/30 = 193.1 ( 93) 5/30 = 191.2 ( 93)
%Rnge= 32.0 ( 31) DRAvg= 51.0 ( 58) ConDy= 3.0 ( 99)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
36> KLIC - KULICKE & SOFFA INDS INC COM .EEE
Price= 18.6 ( 72) AvgVl= 612.0 ( 97) 1-Dy = 106.4 ( 96)
2-Dy = 106.0 ( 94) 3-Dy = 109.5 ( 97) 4-Dy = 116.4 ( 98)
1-Wk = 119.6 ( 98) VL/30= 124.4 ( 87) 2/30 = 120.9 ( 77)
3/30 = 139.2 ( 84) 4/30 = 174.2 ( 91) 5/30 = 151.7 ( 87)
%Rnge= 54.0 ( 48) DRAvg= 54.0 ( 65) ConDy= 1.0 ( 70)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
43> SMOD - SMART MODULAR TECH INC COM .ESE
Price= 21.4 ( 77) AvgVl= 887.2 ( 98) 1-Dy = 120.0 ( 99)
2-Dy = 119.5 ( 99) 3-Dy = 124.3 ( 99) 4-Dy = 118.3 ( 99)
1-Wk = 123.0 ( 99) VL/30= 265.1 ( 96) 2/30 = 151.5 ( 85)
3/30 = 110.0 ( 74) 4/30 = 89.9 ( 60) 5/30 = 82.0 ( 50)
%Rnge= 93.0 ( 76) DRAvg= 55.0 ( 67) ConDy= 1.0 ( 70)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
51> MCHP - MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC COM .DCO
Price= 30.1 ( 87) AvgVl= 1013.5 ( 98) 1-Dy = 107.5 ( 97)
2-Dy = 113.1 ( 98) 3-Dy = 108.3 ( 96) 4-Dy = 103.8 ( 90)
1-Wk = 104.7 ( 88) VL/30= 183.4 ( 93) 2/30 = 140.2 ( 83)
3/30 = 109.0 ( 74) 4/30 = 98.8 ( 66) 5/30 = 88.8 ( 56)
%Rnge= 92.0 ( 76) DRAvg= 47.0 ( 47) ConDy= 2.0 ( 95)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
52> MAST - MASTECH CORP COM .DSE
Price= 25.6 ( 83) AvgVl= 250.1 ( 92) 1-Dy = 106.7 ( 96)
2-Dy = 107.8 ( 96) 3-Dy = 106.7 ( 94) 4-Dy = 109.6 ( 97)
1-Wk = 114.8 ( 97) VL/30= 111.3 ( 84) 2/30 = 87.7 ( 60)
3/30 = 64.8 ( 41) 4/30 = 89.6 ( 60) 5/30 = 129.0 ( 81)
%Rnge= 73.0 ( 62) DRAvg= 77.0 ( 95) ConDy= 2.0 ( 95)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
56> ALTR - ALTERA CORP COM .ESE
Price= 40.9 ( 92) AvgVl= 2409.5 ( 99) 1-Dy = 106.1 ( 96)
2-Dy = 107.3 ( 95) 3-Dy = 105.6 ( 93) 4-Dy = 103.6 ( 89)
1-Wk = 104.6 ( 88) VL/30= 106.3 ( 83) 2/30 = 105.5 ( 71)
3/30 = 83.4 ( 57) 4/30 = 76.2 ( 49) 5/30 = 79.4 ( 48)
%Rnge= 96.0 ( 77) DRAvg= 55.0 ( 67) ConDy= 2.0 ( 95)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
58> ADPT - ADAPTEC INC COM .DCS
Price= 14.5 ( 59) AvgVl= 1950.1 ( 99) 1-Dy = 104.5 ( 93)
2-Dy = 106.4 ( 94) 3-Dy = 109.4 ( 97) 4-Dy = 107.9 ( 95)
1-Wk = 111.0 ( 96) VL/30= 65.3 ( 71) 2/30 = 74.8 ( 51)
3/30 = 93.8 ( 64) 4/30 = 95.2 ( 64) 5/30 = 91.8 ( 58)
%Rnge= 88.0 ( 73) DRAvg= 57.0 ( 71) ConDy= 3.0 ( 99)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
61> ALYD - ALYDAAR SOFTWARE CORP COM .DSO
Price= 11.4 ( 45) AvgVl= 237.6 ( 92) 1-Dy = 119.7 ( 99)
2-Dy = 120.5 ( 99) 3-Dy = 113.7 ( 98) 4-Dy = 107.0 ( 95)
1-Wk = 104.5 ( 87) VL/30= 143.5 ( 90) 2/30 = 137.3 ( 82)
3/30 = 118.3 ( 78) 4/30 = 97.7 ( 65) 5/30 = 88.5 ( 56)
%Rnge= 100.0 ( 99) DRAvg= 41.0 ( 35) ConDy= 2.0 ( 95)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
62> LRCX - LAM RESEARCH CORP COM .ESE
Price= 19.3 ( 73) AvgVl= 934.1 ( 98) 1-Dy = 106.1 ( 96)
2-Dy = 105.8 ( 93) 3-Dy = 109.1 ( 96) 4-Dy = 106.1 ( 94)
1-Wk = 106.5 ( 91) VL/30= 156.8 ( 91) 2/30 = 116.5 ( 76)
3/30 = 94.8 ( 65) 4/30 = 85.3 ( 56) 5/30 = 81.9 ( 50)
%Rnge= 73.0 ( 62) DRAvg= 50.0 ( 56) ConDy= 1.0 ( 70)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51) |
