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Microcap & Penny Stocks : ALYA Cost cutting system via software as well as security -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ztect who wrote (1682)	8/13/1998 12:40:00 AM
From: Essam Hamza	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 2534

ALYA Price Projection: Still working out the kinks so please contribute if you can. ALYA has signed on 12 distributors for a min of $6.5M for next year. We can expect AT LEAST 8 more to be signed for this year. Each will be for AT LEAST $500,000. So we can expect at least $10.5M from distributor sales next year. The actual number will be much higher but I want this to be a conservative projection so I will only use $10M. We can also expect more than $10M in private labelling deals but we will use $10M for now. I will use $20M as next years total revenue projection but like I said this is very conservative and doesn't even include any separate contracts which we can expect. The profit margin for ALYA's products are between 30-50% depending on the size of the contract. Lets just take 40% as our working number. $20,000,000 X .40 = $8M in earnings. Burn rate should be about $250,000/mth as they grow next year. So we must subtract $250,000/mth X 12mths = $2.75M but lets just say $3M. NET earnings will then be $8M-$3M = $5 million Fully diluted there are 13,432,882 shares outstanding. Therefore earnings per share is $5,000,000/13,432,882 = $0.37 EPS Now the tough part. The multiple. I looked and I looked and I looked and I can't find a publically traded competitor for ALYA. I wanted to find out what multiple we should give AYLA. I've heard numbers from 20 to 50. The parent company of Macdonald Miller (one of ALYA's recent contract signings) runs at a multiple of 37. Like I said I want this to be conservative so I'll use a multiple of 20. $0.37 X 20 = $7.40 for a conservative projected price for ALYA's stock. Personally I think this number will be higher. Please help with any changes up or down. Thanks, Essam.

To: ztect who wrote (1682)	8/24/1998 10:15:00 PM
From: Jeffrey L. Henken	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2534

>Will building owners have to overhaul their entire building security and automation systems (and hopefully replace them with Alya's products) or can they simply identify specific embedded microprocessors in their existing systems that are date sensitive and just replace those microprocessors?< Security systems have to be Y2K compliant. Imagine the looting come January 1st, 2000 in some cities in stores that are not. This is a huge opportunity for ALYA. ALYA is building the first part of their business plan on the installation of Y2K compliant security systems. ALYA's software and LonWork's technology allows the company to take this much further. Environmental systems, lighting systems and much more can all be connected by simply replacing control boxes. No rewiring is necessary. Security systems have to be replaced and it's a relatively inexpensive method for ALYA to get their feet in the door(Without setting off any alarms)! Other control systems can be made to work with the security system in the future by simply replacing control boxes. In the long run these systems will save businesses lots of money. I really like ALYA. I hope the trading range lasts a while longer so I can really load up. Regards, Jeff