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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (27778)	8/14/1998 7:00:00 PM
From: Judy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Doug, how long is "long-term"? What is the likelihood of oil entering a secular bear market for a couple of years?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (27778)	8/14/1998 7:42:00 PM
From: Mike from La.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

So much doom and gloom, and rightly so. It 's been a disaster. So just to cheer everyone up, I have articles by a couple of so called experts, that we can put on the dart board, and throw darts at. These guys actually get money for issuing this kind of trash. I'm typing, forgive if I don't take the time to proof. First clown is Stephen Leeb, self proclaimed "smartest man on Wall Street." dated 12 August: OIL'S WELL "When stocks get hammered because of a long-term change in fundamentals it usually pays to take your lumps and sell. But when stocks get hammered because of a short term change in fundamentals that don't affect the long term, it's a buying opportunity. And if the short-term negatives actually improve the long-term picture, you have an extradinary buying opportunity. That's the case today with oil services and drilling companies..... ... in the next two to three years most if not all stocks in the group will well surpass their previous highs. This means for the very leveraged drillers .... targets four or even five times the current prices are realistic. ... We can't rule out a bit more pain over the next several months. But if you have a three-year time horizon, this is a once in a decade buying opportunity. ... most stocks in the oil service sector are priced at or close to all time low valuations. Even during the mid-1980's when there was a glut of both oil and rigs, the price to sales ratio of the drillers rarely dropped below 1, which is close to current valuations. ...Bottom line Investors are discounting a protracted down-trend in oil prices. With the opposite scenario more likely, the stage is set for oil service stocks to be the markets comeback kids and serve up big surprises to patient risk-tolerant investors. If you can stand some downside risk, buy our oil picks at current prices" What a chuckle! And here's another one, they must have both escaped from the same institution. Czeschin's Oil & Energy Investment Report dated 20 August "Oil prices have bottomed. They're going to go back up and you're going to make a pile of money. 1. More than 80% of the oil ... comes from fields that were discovered before 1973. For the great majority of them, production is already declining' 2. Global discoveries of new oil peaked in the late "70's - and have been declining ever since. 3. Oil nations are overstating reserves to qualify for larger loans and higher OPEC quotas." (he talks about a lot I won't cover, except to mention his quaint notion that King Fahd is about to die, and there could be a civil war for leadership. He must grow magic mushrooms in the closet) ".... If you own these stocks (oil and oil service stocks), you're already perfectly positioned to cash in big on the next bull market in oil. All you have to do is hang on until today's temporary period of weak petroleum is past. Hold your positions. A bottom in oil prices is near." Funnier than Leno Mike from La.

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (27778)	8/16/1998 2:59:00 PM
From: Paul Angell	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Douglas, <<But I do work in the energy industry. And might it help you to know that our energy concern (like others) are basing our business plans upon a turnaround in Asian energy demand in the 2d half of 1999?>> Your company's approach sounds reasonable. With any luck oil demand in Asia will pick up earlier. The Asian turnaround is starting now. The IMF recipes are starting to work. Korean won is up, an investors are looking at Korean assets again. The devalued currencies of the Asian nations have given them a massive competitive break. When stability occurs capital will flow in their direction and they will be revving up their manufacturing processes, employing more people who will buying more stuff and start driving their toyota trucks around at high speed delivering goods and services. The question of a turnaround is not if but when. Paul.