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Technology Stocks : PairGain Technologies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Korn who wrote (25488)	8/22/1998 11:15:00 AM
From: helkel	Respond to of 36349

I still feel its 26-30 is where stock would settle, the actual price would be higher. for some reason, the stock does not go all way up to buy price. if you look at DIGI prior to leak of news. On wed before buyout, digi was at 17 and change and had been for a while. thurs and friday stock jumped about 2 bucks or so on heavy volume (wall st works its magic for the insiders) then on monday stock jumps to 29-30. so its about a 70-80% premium fwiw. DIGI has since methodicaly traded up to 35 + and is back down to about 29 and change. this is all smoke and mirrors any way until someone buys the damn place. I would prefer a bump up to 17-18 range on good news then the big news (i would also prefer to be enjoying my lottery winnings on a lonely island with carmen electra and jenny mccartney)....... hk

To: Gary Korn who wrote (25488)	8/22/1998 12:05:00 PM
From: Edward J. Edwards, III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36349

Hi Gary, It is nice to see you here on the pair thread. I still hold a block of asnd, thanks to your analysis. I bought Digi the day before the buyout at 19 1/2 or so. The price was in the 17s before the speculation. I bought based on the speculation and 10 times normal volume. As I recall, the deal was for around 34-36 before the price decline of the acquirer. I sold out for 29 the next morning for a quick $10 gain. Regarding Pair: I have 2-3 day traded pair twice in the past 2 weeks, normally from 12 9/16 - 13 1/2. I now have a block around 13 that I am holding for 1-2 months. Fair value for pair is 16-18, price driven down due to market conditions. Pair is consistent with its earnings 10 million a qtr +-. no long term debt, tons of cash 200-250 million. Well positioned in its industry. Compared to ADTN and WSTL, pair is a steal. Adtn has 50 million long term debt and wstl still is not profitable. While I dont post often on the pair thread I watch the news on it and read the posts daily. I think the turning point was when Pair lost USWEST trials to netspeed and their ADSL modems. The stock dropped that day from about 19 down to 16 or so and rebounded back to 18. That loss was far greater then most on the thread realized that day. Since then CSCO has purchased netspeed and USWEST is rapidly installing the adsl netspeed modems. Giving away 1000 in as many as 13 states to the first 1000 users who get their new adsl service. (I should know since Mine is sitting right next to my monitor) Pair will be bought out, as many on the thread believe. The question is when. My opinion is within 1998. I actually thought it would be before the end of the summer. I know Charles, about 6 months ago, had his personal CPA do an analysis of his pairgain stock. Calculating basis etc. for shares and options he owns. The info on the french insurance companies is interesting and almost compelling for another purchase of pair. My target price is $23, the price may be higher but I would be satisfied with 23. Ted

To: Gary Korn who wrote (25488)	8/22/1998 2:07:00 PM
From: Rainmaker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36349

Gary, There are numerous reasons why many believe PAIR will be bought out before the end of this year. IMO, the final sale is being delayed because Strauch is demanding a higher premium than what the market will bear (based on recent stock price) or what company XYZ is willing to pay (premium TOO high). The AXA/ALA connection was brought to light earlier (see post beginning 25338). Toward that end, this is my question to you: Do you know or think there are enough shares held by non-management to overcome management resistance if an offer is tendered publicly (like the recent Allied-Signal cash offer for AMP)?

To: Gary Korn who wrote (25488)	8/22/1998 2:16:00 PM
From: Rainmaker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36349

Question #2 - THE MONEY QUESTION Takeover numbers speculated range between 22 and 28, with some folks guestimating over 30. The 22 to 28 numbers are reasonable, but do you think this includes what I call the "Cash Stub"? Currently, PAIR has about $200M in cash. By the time a deal is announced later this summer or towards the end of the year, this number will hover close to $230M - $250M. This stub alone has a $3 - $4 per share value. Do you think this will be on top of the sale premium, or included in the 22 - 28 range?