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To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (63551)	8/28/1998 6:26:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Awww, he ought to be impeached anyway, but who wants Gore?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (63551)	8/28/1998 10:57:00 PM
From: nihil	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

RE: Are there bears in the woods? A bear market has little or nothing to do with the state of the economy. A bear market in stocks results from diminished expectations. It sometimes occurs during periods of inflation and rising interest rates. This leads to a secondary bear market in bonds. Thus all investors and savers are miffed if politicians allow inflation to arise or try to stop by monetary means, or stifle enterprise.. If stocks enter a bear market now, bonds are likely to sustain and expand their bull market which results from price stability and falling interest rates. If the economy experiences a decline in GDP and employment, the Fed (having achieved their objective of halting the expansion) will ultimately loosen money supply even farther and lower short-term interest rates in an attempt to stimulate expansion. There is little question that in the US (unlike Japan) this will lead to rapid expansion. I personally will borrow as much as they will lend at 2% and invest it all in stocks, as long as they don't get too shirty about collateral. Ultimately, a bear market in stocks is caused by a perception of profits falling faster than interest rates fall. We are already in a bear market in small caps, mid caps, NASDAQ (less the Dynamic Duo (CSCO and DELL) and the Internet Stocks,), NYSE (except for a few of the Dow 30). Look at random few dozen charts. Someday there will be a bottom and recovery. The world economic outlook will not change suddenly, so, to the extent that the US situation is influenced by foreign conditions, this will not be a V-shaped Fibonacci recovery. It will be a matter of nibbling along the bottom. For some (like the semi-equips) it may take two or three years. As interest rates fall from here, investors are going to look for bargains, and the place is full of them. If you are patient you might get really rich on AMAT, TLAB, SVGI, CYMI, and QCOM with new candidates arriving every day. I would look for a growing market (cordless, thruput enhancement, e-commerce), really good technology (CIENA is definitely a plus for TLAB), no debt,, good management, (ruthlessness is good -- AMAT shines here as do Intel and MSFT) I will wait for CSCO, DELL, and LU to break a little bit more (although I admit I nibbled today). But when everything is on sale, I pass up most of the items that are 10% off, and concentrate on the ones that are 50% off., .