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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (453)	8/29/1998 12:05:00 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Some data to ponder - from a new thread: Message 5620818

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (453)	8/29/1998 5:07:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa, What are the critical levels for the put/call ratio? What are the values that indicate bullish, bearish, and neutral sentiment? BTW, your commentary has been quite helpful these days. I also share your positive response to Duker's message on the AMAT thread yesterday (mess #23563). Ciao, David Todtman

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (453)	8/29/1998 11:47:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 15132

Saturday Review According to Brinker, the correction "is qualifying more and more as a major event in terms of a 1998 midterm off-presidential year correction. Brinker cited the current international events and specifically Russia in particular although Japan had more bearing as the reason why the "correctio" has gone beyond the 10% area and is now 13.7% in the S & P. He said: "The real question before us is whether or not we are in a bear market. Are we in a market that goes down 20, 30, 40 or 50% ...." Brinker reviewed the five major causes of a bear market and came to the conclusion that we are not in a bear and are not going into a bear market. "What we are looking at in our opinion is a classic midterm off- presidential year buying opportunity. I think the buying opportunity is extrordinary more than it otherwise would have been because of some of the things that are going on internationally." Brinker went on: "It is clear there was a direct correlation between what was going on in Russia and what was going on in the US stock market." Through Wednesday, the DOW was essentially even for the week. The events in Russia caused the dip below 10% on Thursday and less on Friday. When asked if we are putting in a bottom, Brinker said he "thought we were close. I think that the market is close to putting in a bottom. It is impossible in an emotional atmosphere that is just so overwhelmed with international calamity -- the situation in Russia last week - the timing of it coming during a market correction exacerbated the selling -- it is impossible to factor in exactly what the market is going to do." Brinker would say that the market is in "the area of making a bottom and is in the process of making a bottom and that anybody that is buying in this area is going to be very, very happy by next year." At one point Brinker did say he thought we were in an intermediate term correction. Based upon the above and my knowledge of Brinker, he must see the bottom as anywhere between here and 20%. Otherwise, the intermediate term "correction" would become a bear by definition if it goes over 20% and Brinker stated that we are not going into a bear market. The major weakness of the program was that Brinker failed to just come out and make the above assertion. What does "close" to a bottom mean? One had to listen between the lines of several program segments to draw this conclusion (if it is a correct conclusion) and that is something the listener should not have to do in this current market environment for sure. When one considers that Brinker keeps citing this event as a "major" midterm, off-presidential year event and notes that many of these events have far exceeded a 20% loss by a longshot, the program's shortcoming in this regard becomes even more apparent and downright disturbing. This situation begs for clarification.