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To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (3718)	8/29/1998 5:43:00 PM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

Steve, 7000, 7400, 7935 - just numbers. When selling covers nearly every traded stock it's clear that nobody took the time to draw a trendline before he called his broker. Before I believe in a bounce, I'd like to hear a few good causes why some should buy. OK, some stocks are "cheap" - but why shouldn't they become cheaper during the next weeks? Russia, South-America, far-east, nothing will change next time. And I'm sure, Mr. Clinton didn't change his hobbies. Also in Germany: Even our huge Cancellor must wait another four weeks for his retirement - and it could last for long till a filing against SAP will be decided. Another argument: All these deep sleeping profs have bad numbers for this year so far - this is a great opp even for half-intelligence-persons to make money: shorting till every stock burnes in the hell, and than sharing the probable/possible october-rally. It's so easy to beat down every careful try to rescue when you have such amounts of stocks invested. And, we shouln't forget that fund-customers drew money away now - some mm's must sell... The strong bond-market shows that a lot of money walked from stocks in bonds - every reversal will cause bonds moving to higher rates - in this situation means selling of bonds loss-taking. What I mean is that a certain amount of former invested money lays in the freezer. Like DJ predicted, we could see a "interim"-rescue (so far I remember a "Milchfrau-rally"). I this comes true, I'm considering to sell more. 25% - this number seems to be burned in some brains. However, we are selling now for 6 weeks, and that's usually enough. A weekend is a good time to cool down. Let's hope that the next week will bring rain and cool air not alone to Houston. Jury

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (3718)	8/29/1998 11:36:00 PM
From: Berney	Respond to of 11051

TA has been tough lately No doubt we broke a neckline on the H&S. I would expect this coming week to be interesting. Historically, the first few days of the month have a bullish bias as retirement plans are moving their money into the market. In addition, we have the Prez visiting Russia, and I'm sure the spin masters will be hard at work. I will go out on the limb, saw in hand, and predict a test of the OEX neckline. That would be about a 3% positive move. If the test fails (and it probably will), the selling will then become relentless. Berney

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (3718)	8/30/1998 1:42:00 AM
From: Marc Schiler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

>>Could this be the sea change we feel ? >We are experiencing a fundamental change, on that we agree, Marc. Steve, Thanks for your great post. I'm sorry I've been swamped with preparation for the semester and didn't give you much argument. What a rude awakening when I saw Thursday's market report! Your theory that "the financial sector's exposure to currencies outside of the Pacific Rim, in Russia and Latin America, and even Canada - appear to be a cause for this effect." certainly seems to have bourne fruit. You didn't have to trash the market to prove your point, though! Now we really will see whether the weaker hands are the major funds (who seem to be bailing out) or the small investor (who seems to be hanging on.) I don't know if you've reread the posts of this past week, but we went from generally looking for an upward breakout to wondering whether we should cash out now and buy back in at a lower level. Jury, you seem to think that even an upturn on Monday will be a "milchfrau" rally. Could you or DJ explain the term? Incidentally, if it drops to 7000, all support rules typical of an ordinary market will have been shattered, and who knows what would happen. I will be shocked if we go below 7400 and will submit that there's some other doomsday theory at work, if we do. For the record, I still don't think that the Russian exposure is substantive in terms of American banks, but perception is (nearly) everything. Thus I think that CCI (for example)is oversold at current levels, but that recovery may take anywhere from two months to two quarters. But companies like CAT are exposed because a byproduct of Russian and Pacific Rim instability is a decrease in construction projects, or the rate of expansion of construction projects, which is why you buy new 'dozers. Regards, Marc PS If I'm irregular in posting, I apologize, but the next two weeks are crazy in terms of the new semester.