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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David W. Ricker who wrote (2158)	9/4/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4509

David, I don't know what Chuzz thinks but from what I know Marty Zweig has an excellent track record. I read one of his books (if there are more than one) and though I can't remember the name of it, I'll say that I was very impressed with his theories and also the amount of historical testing he did to validate those theories. Anyway, I think the book was about market timing, the premise being if you can be out during a real bear market and in during the bull market you will obvioiusly be far better off long term. I know there are those who frown on trying to time the market but he seems to have done it quite successfully. Melissa

To: David W. Ricker who wrote (2158)	9/4/1998 3:50:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

David, I have a different approach to investing. If you hold quality stocks with strong fundamentals you can ignore the daily fluctuations in the market. I just read an interview with Peter Lynch that reinforced that approach. But you question was more to whether we are headed for a bear market. I looked at some of the indicators that Zweig had plucked out, and they seem taken out of context to me. 1. For example, high p/es are supportable when interest rates are low. The bond market is currently higher than I remember at any time in my lifetime! 2. An inverted yield curve can have many interpretations. For example, the yield curve was inverted during the late seventies and early eighties. That was indicative of the fact that investors expected short-term interest rates to come down rather sharply. During that time frame inflation was severe. But now, I think that there is an expectation that shorter term interest rates will decrease but for a totally different reasons. This time they may drop in order to weaken the US dollar (and thereby srtrengthen the yen). Generally speaking, bear markets are associated with recessions. I see no indications that we are headed in that direction. I suspect that we are seeing some realignment to bring valuations down to reflect decreased earnings growth, but I don't think this will presage a bear market. TTFN, CTC