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Non-Tech : Doc Stone's Bierstube und Trading Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: M. Frank Greiffenstein who wrote (387)	9/8/1998 10:50:00 PM
From: CuttotheCore	Respond to of 638

Doc, that's the only good reason to short dell. Last week, at a crossroads in my investing career I came down to buying dell or shorting amzn. I chose to buy dell and it promply tanked, but rallied, split and continued to rally. It my not be so but there is a good case for dell being the bellwether for this whole bull market. Taking that a step further, unless dell corrects significantly, I can't see how the bullrun can continue. If dell's correction actually happens, then a very important scenario of any sustained subsequent rally would be russian stability. Damn good case for shorting dell based on russian affairs. However, you seem to have been a little premature on your entry. amzn is still the better short, imo.. gtw, which manufactures in hampton, va, has a dairy cow computer store in prime real estate in va beach. I went by recently as I was interested in a laptop. I ended being impressed with their laptops, but thought they were unnecessarily expensive and that the store was a total waste. They don't even have product, you just get to see and touch the product you may want to buy. It is unlikely a successful concept. What is your take on tava & driv, they're pretty close to disasters, sell or hold, inclination was to see where this rally could get us, then act? Best, rdk btw, bought a dell

To: M. Frank Greiffenstein who wrote (387)	9/9/1998 9:11:00 AM
From: wolfdog2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 638

Frank, thanks for posting your "inside information" about the situation in Russia. Sounds scary indeed. How does your father in law make out without his pension? Sound like a really tough situation to be in. As to the market, I think the time to put out the shorts is after the exuberance has run its course. duh. But what I mean is that this rally will probably carry further and then be followed by another retracement. It is wonderous how Dell can keep pumping out these good numbers while everyone else's business is tanking. As to GTW, I think people must be impressed with their advertising promotions. I've seen some of the ads and they looked pretty good. GTW was late in recognizing the lower end strength in computer sales. A year ago they had nothing under $1000 while CPU and CPQ and others were churning out lower priced models. I still think that they have nothing under $1000 (I could be wrong about this, as I haven't checked it out) but some of their packages looked competitive, especially given their leasing plan, etc. But the lower end is really just a commodity product and doesn't warrant the kind of multiple that GTW is being awarded I also doubt GTW will fare very well in the server market, where they are running up against some very big players. Now that you and Fleckenstein have rekindled my interest in the stock, I think I'll start looking for an entry point. Rather than buy puts, I'll short it outright with a tight stop. The stock is readily available for shorting.