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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gbh who wrote (3090)	9/14/1998 2:01:00 PM
From: John Carragher	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12623

nettles imo took a shot at tlab saying they need to get up to speed. They are ok for the next year or two.... interesting to say that when he represents cien.... What do you think is going through csco's mind. It would seem these companies need to partner even more so with csco now.... Does csco become somewhat a big brother to them and as a group try to keep lu from gaining. just a thought. trying to find something positive and reaching..... John

To: gbh who wrote (3090)	9/15/1998 5:36:00 AM
From: Asymmetric	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 12623

On the $100 million fee waiver. <<He plans to build up business perhaps down the road a business venture between tlab and cien. >> <John, this makes sense and also confirms why he didn't pushed for the $100M. Perhaps in the future these companies will get together. Better to part on good terms. CIEN doesn't need the cash, it need a re-defined FOCUS on sales and marketing. This R&D company needs to grow up, or realize that its now selling for its worth.> GBH, I'm bothered regarding this point of the fee waiver. I think it's clear that Ciena was materially damaged by the merger process and stated so in their press release: Ciena said the fourth-quarter shortfall would reflect a loss of expected revenues from DTI and delays or changes in customer purchase decisions because of the company's recent problems. ''Feedback received from our sales force indicates that the uncertainty created by the events of the last few weeks and attempts of our competitors to capitalize on that uncertainty may delay or alter some customers' near-term purchase,'' Ciena said in a prepared release. Until proven otherwise, and because companies always put positive spins on PR releases, my take is that Ciena has, or is going to lose sales in addition to ones already announced because customers confused by the merger process decided to go elsewhere. The announcement regarding next quarter's earnings/revenue shortfall is a confirmation as well. And because it was Tellabs who called Ciena and not the other way around I feel that total forgiveness of the merger fee seemed overly generous and very curious on Nettle's part, given the above. While I could see Nettle's walking away from a (measly) $100 million fee or less, if he knew another multi-billion dollar offer was going to show up right around the corner, this whole process was such a mess that I can't help but think that any potential suitors want time to determine if Ciena is truly damaged goods or not. The action of the tape is telling you that as well - that there won't be any alternate bids out there any time soon, otherwise Ciena would've bounced on the announcement of the breakup. Now, it's also a fact that Tellabs was sent reeling after disclosures of the ATT news and the Digital Teleport announcement and many questioned their doing sufficient due diligence. So..if there's no other offers on the table, Ciena was materially damaged by the Tellabs merger proposal, and Tellabs was very much surprised and off-balance by subsequent turns of events, my conclusion is that Nettles was not totally upfront in the disclosure process.or else why give up such a substantial amount of money so easily????or at least attempt to extract some small portion for what ended up being a totally humiliating experience??? It is for these reasons, that I agree with your sober assessment that Ciena is selling now only slightly below what it is "really" worth.and is officially in the show me category. With end of quarter window dressing/tax loss selling coming up, lower prices yet may be in store. I hope not. Institutions and investors have already seen $5.5 billion dollars in wealth literally melt away.