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To: E. Graphs who wrote (14992)	9/15/1998 1:36:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25814

E: Fuhs expects spending on semi-equip to stabilize next year: semibiznews.com [Last year] was a year of technology investment, but 1998 is a year of econeconomic correction," Fuhs said. "1999 will basically be a sit-and-wait-for-demand mode. We expect accelerateowth to resume in the fourth quarter of 1999 (also he is implying that there will be a 15% reduction in fab spending this year cp. to 1997) and AMAT CFO says next year is "imponderable": biz.yahoo.com ''1999 is an imponderable situation,'' Bronson told reporters after speaking at a NationsBanc Montgomery Securities investment conference. ''You can't say whether it will be growth or not ... Japan is a big imponderable.'' ''The most difficult part is preparing for when it changes,'' Bronson said, adding that when the industry turns around, it will suddenly jump from overcapacity, as it is today, to customers being on allocation for certain products. (there's that suddenly word again <g>) --- I actually did see one non INTC thingie (discrete component) on allocation recently - which just blew me away. --- Was hoping for the sudden rush in demand by now for the high end guys. LSI just told us with last q's warning that there was a sudden swoosh going the other way... Might be temporary for LSI I think and relatively good times may be back from Sept. on. We shall see. --- Pretty sure the experts have the timing of a recovery all f**d up (fudged - not the other word... <g>). Since they get it wrong all the time I'm pretty sure the DataQuest and ilk people are all wrong this time as well (these are the same guys who said 1996 would be great, so would 1998 as late as mid 1997 - better to toss a die). The question is will it be sooner or later. Usually KLIC is the first one to indicate if something big is going to happen and recently the stock did go up a bit on some orders. But they still say life is not good. --- On AMAT: cbs.marketwatch.com "The industry will recover, but it will probably not get back to the previous levels of growth we've seen in the past," he said. "We view this as a new level of maturity for the industry." Applied expects industry orders to drop 25-30 percent in the current year, and Bronson wouldn't offer a forecast for 1999. He remained optimistic about the years after that: "The way things have always gone in this business is things get very bad, and then they get very, very, very good," he said.** What I don't like about the first part is that typically the average growth rate for the semi-equips should match the average revenue growth for the semis so what he is saying is that the monster years are over <bummer>. What I don't like about the 2nd part is that it pretty much means with 25-30% lower orders expected Fuhs numbers above just look a tad too optimistic - think about it if we get 17 billion in revenue and then lop off 25-30% of that to get new orders, that does not leave a heck of a lot of backlog - to wit these semi-equips won't be doing the macarena for some time. What I do like about the 2nd part is that it is the "recoiled spring" theory that I am waiting waiting waiting for... We shall see... --- shane.