We now have the USA itself opposing free trade and threatening sanctions against New Zealand because New Zealand introduced parallel importing laws whereby anyone can import a legal product - fines were simultaneously substantially increased for anyone breaching copyright and intellectual property rights.
What, New Zealand wants to import from Iran and Libya, and the USA is peed off? Or some such? Not too much sympathy Maurice in that event. Trade embargoes in extreme cases are a tool. Perhaps ineffective, because of the many countries (New Zealand?) that ignore them, but certainly not immoral. And if American gives NZ a little slap re: most favorable access for its sheep products to our rather sizeable markets, well, I guess a slap is a slap. (I am no supporter of the continuing Cuba embargo however. As most Americans are not. It's an old grudge. Cuba is making some progress. It is no threat to the world any longer. It is counter productive. It is entirely the result of the Cuban American lobby, only half of whose constituents are really behind it, the other half being terrorized by the not soft persuasion techniques of the hard line half.)
Hey, did you know Iran is going to invade Afghanistan?
Sure, we have newspapers here too. Even some pretty thick ones, with international news. (At least here, at the center of the known universe, NYC. <ggg>)
Although hard to keep conquered, Afghanistan is pretty easily to invade. If you are foolish enough to think that flea trap is worth invading.
That will bring Pakistan in to support Afghanistan.
Or at least make a lot of noise about same. They are broke. Their principal prior source of funding was the U.S. That dried up with their nuclear escapades. It is rather unlikely to be restarted so they can come to the aide of the Taliban. Who our government dislikes, properly, even more than Iran. Pakistan has a desperate need to keep marshaled their rather thin military resources against the current militant Hindi government of India. Pakistan is in a rather pathetic pickle at the moment.
Iraq will reopen the jihad against Iran.
Horrors. How terrible for the West, and for liberal and free democracy everywhere!!!!
Iraq will ... have another go at Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Israel and the USA won't stand by and watch that circus engulf the
major oil fields of the world, so there will be quite a squabble.
You bet. And so does Saddam. He wouldn't dare. And if he did, keep some things in mind. Remember those smart weapons that were so whiz bang in 1990, and which had been under development since the early 80's? Well, they've gotten a lot more whiz bang, and deadly accurate, since. Microchip technology marches on.
Further, I don't think the U.S. would be so nice this time. There's a real good chance we'd warn him to retreat, and if he didn't, we'd level downtown Baghdad, as well as all the palaces, etc, etc. A serial aggressor, and a people who are complicit, for supporting him loe these many years. Scorched earth next time Saddam. Like you cannot believe. All conventional weapons. Of which we have rather a lot. And of which he has rather fewer. And worse moral. His troops now KNOW what awaits them. Only worse, lots worse.
Don't think we'd feel any 500k ground troops necessary this time. Nor would they be.
Which won't do wonders for gasoline prices in the USA.
I can think of few single things better for much of the developing world, and hence their ability to buy our tech products, than an increase in the price of a barrel of oil. The U.S. does just fine with $22 a barrel priced oil, about 50% above the current level.
Lebed will take over in Russia under a state of emergency and declare that a little stability, order and general good behaviour [Empire, and therefor Sic. Spelling] is appropriate.
It probably is for Russia. They can't handle immediate full democracy, evidently, and have instead disintegrated into no effective government at all. A bit of command from the center in Russia is better than chaos, and the wholesale selling of nuclear and other weapons that would result. Not that those weapons would necessarily still work, or work without a large infrastructure to support them, for the most part. (But it only takes a few exceptions to be terrifying.)
In fact, the old idea of an Indian Ocean Russian port might become attractive again.
You're letting those sweet, bearded misogynists in Afgan land have it from all sides, aren't you. <gg>
Down in paradise, Indonesians decide that a move to Australia would relieve some population pressure, after all, why should a few million Australians enjoy a vast continent when 170 million or so Indonesians are crowded into a hungry, violent shambles?
I guess that's gun boats are for, no? Australia has at least a few, I imagine. (New Zealand I'm less sure about.) Or does liberalism have no limits?
[Madeleine had to get a dictionary to see what Xena meant by "hostile atavism"] decides to apply trade restrictions to New Zealand, nuking any ships entering or leaving ports, to force compliance with anti-free-trade USA requirements and demonstrate that nuclear weapons are good for New Zealand and that she indeed knows what hostile atavism is.
Ah yes, FINALLY a realistic prediction. <gg>
Stockmarkets, financial systems and much else will steeply decline.
Everywhere but the U.S., whose markets rally sharply. As the U.S. acts decisively, or at least with a fair bit of swagger, and the Republicans decide there really are some bigger fish to fry, and everyone else decides there's no where else to hide.
Japan? Oh yes, they'll fall back on rice growing in Tokyo on land which used to be worth the whole of the rest of the world put together.
I thought that was already happening. Remember what we charged when we sold them Rockefeller Center? Or what we paid when we bought it back from them a few years ago? (about 1/3). Now back where we sold it in the first place, or higher.
They won't quite bring themselves to suggest a greater Asian co-prosperity sphere with a trade delegation to Nanking, being mindful that the USA still has a lot of nukes and some fairly quick and effective delivery systems. Unlike the bloody Russians with their Zenits.
There is that. But at least since the turn of the century, we have not been a territorially expansionist power. Unlike all the other great powers throughout history. We just want to get rich through a system that everyone else can get rich through also. Not so horrible a deal, relatively speaking, even if we do have certain advantages in it. (Such as the reserve currency.) (Which most of the rest of the world secretly knows it's a pretty sweet deal, and we're a pretty sweet Superpower, but admits it as little as possible. To preserve their various and sundry bitching rights, of course.)
Great Rant Maurice!!!!
Doug
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