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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daniel Chisholm who wrote (115)	9/17/1998 9:32:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 10695

every long yen futures contract is matched by a short yen futures Of course. Do I feel dumb now. I think the info that I was looking at 3 years ago was the position distribution and their related trends. Let me ask you something. Do you trade currency futures professionally or is this "hobby" trading for you? I realize that it is a dangerous hobby to have, but if you do this for a living, don't you find it dangerous to be playing against hedge funds and banks that have access to more info (like the distribution of positions) than you do? My point about Bunds vs Yen was two fold; one I wonder if dollar and T-bills are topy at the moment given that so many people have moved into them, and the other that I think Germany will have to cut rates sooner than most expect. That they said they are not going to do it, makes buying bunds even a better proposition IMO. I think Japan is in such a big hole that they will not be able to get out of for at least another decade. I am not saying this due to excessive pessimism on their banking system (though that is almost enough in itself). Rather I'm basing that on their demographics. It is impossible to have a booming economy (and inflation for that matter) when you have negative population growth. Sun Tzu

To: Daniel Chisholm who wrote (115)	9/21/1998 10:57:00 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10695

We may be only two days away from the end of the world as we know it :^) Nikkei is dangerously low (a 20 year low in fact. There is a lesson here for those who think a buy and hold will save them in the long run). My guess is that Japanese banking will implode if we get another two nights like last night and Nikkei falls below 13000, but I don't have enough data to say this with conviction. Of course this is why the central bank droped its call rate to zero a few days ago. The chain reaction to this can make the Russian flue look like a mild headache. What do you think? Where do you think the line is drawn and what are the chances of wiggling out if that line is crossed? Sun Tzu