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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (122)	9/21/1998 1:33:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10768

It can be dangerous to base investment decisions on short term observations.<vbG> Indeed! <g> Actually I am not sure if the book goes back only 1200 years. I think in certain parts of the book he does look at sales receipts of ancient Egypt and Babilonian times. I know that I said this thread is not concerned with very long term trading / investing perspectives, and I am certainly not advocating trades based on the Great Wave or K-Wave. But it is important to have a perspective as to how times can change. Every so often an investing method becomes fashionable for so long, that we tend to lose sight that it's been around before. It then becomes prudent to see what happened the last time things were about the same. Every generation sees itself much wiser than the preceding one, let alone the more ancient ones. Yet history is full of parallels. As Confucius said, know the past if you'd divine the future. This is why I like to look at very long term charts; they filter the noise out. Still I base my trading strategies on a 2 month to 2 year perspective. It was this method that got me to transfer all my retirement funds into bonds last Otc.~ Nov. People laughed that I'd settle for a 6.5% gain, but with bonds ~5%, I've made 35% so far without trading (and yes I did question my position while stocks made new highs early in the year, but bonds were doing ok and I decided that in stormy weather it is best to stay near the shore). Sun Tzu