Iranian-Afghan Crisis Escalates
The potential for Iranian intervention in Afghanistan increased
on Wednesday, September 16, when Tehran recalled the Iranian
ambassador to Pakistan, Mohammad Mehdi Akhundzadeh. According to
the Iranian "Tous" newspaper, Akhundzadeh met with Pakistani
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif before departing for Tehran. Also on
the 16th, the Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran charged that
Pakistani officers were directing Taleban operations in Bamiyan
province, and Pakistani troops were involved in clashes around
the city of Bamiyan. Until it was recently captured by the
Taleban, Bamiyan was the stronghold of the Iranian-backed, Shiite
Hezb-e-Wahdat. Iran has charged that the Taleban are massacring
Shiites as they consolidate their hold of the city.
The Afghan representation to the UN, which is controlled by the
ousted government of President Burhanuddin Rabbani and the anti-
Taleban alliance, issued a statement on September 17, charging
that eight Pakistani bombers had attacked Bamiyan on September 12
and 13. According to the Iranian news agency "IRNA," the
statement stressed that "Pakistan is the occupier of Afghanistan,
and all responsibilities of the war crimes rests in Islamabad."
In Tehran, on Thursday, September 17, Iranian Foreign Minister
Kamal Kharrazi lashed out at his Pakistani counterpart, Foreign
Minister Sartaj Aziz. After Aziz offered his condolences on the
deaths of Iranian diplomats in Afghanistan, and offered
Pakistan's assistance in recovering the remaining bodies,
Kharrazi said resolution of that issue was among the least of
Tehran's concerns. Kharrazi said the situation in Afghanistan
harmed Iran's national interest, and insisted that "alleviation
of the current tension and its prevention from further escalation
requires political resolve and practical steps by the Pakistani
government."
Kharrazi noted "relations between the two countries [Iran and
Pakistan] is deteriorating, and there is significant pressure on
the Iranian authorities to resort to military means to avenge the
crime. There is a limit under which the pressure can be borne;
however, it is clear that practical steps need to be taken by
both Pakistan and the Taleban that would help ease off pressure
and decrease tension in the relations."
Aziz received a similar treatment from Iranian First Vice
President Hassan Habibi, who listed Iran's grievances with the
Taleban, citing "criminal acts against Iranian diplomats and
citizens, and acts of genocide against Afghan defenseless,
innocent, and suffering people, and its brutal acts against
mankind and Islam." He called insecurity along the Iranian-
Afghan border "unacceptable," and called for the establishment of
a broad-based government in Afghanistan.
Iran has given Pakistan a stern warning that it has one last
opportunity to rein in the Taleban, or Iran will be forced to
act. Whether or not Pakistan still holds enough sway with the
Taleban to do so is dubious. While Pakistan launched and
supported the Taleban movement, and still provides it with direct
military assistance, the Taleban have developed a momentum of
their own. With the majority of Afghanistan under Taleban
control, it is doubtful that they would suddenly and willingly
withdraw and enter into a coalition government. The Taleban
philosophy is not based on compromise.
With few options for Pakistan, the question remains how the
remainder of the region's players line up. While condemning the
Taleban's actions, India has said it prefers a diplomatic
resolution of the crisis, saying Iranian military action would
only increase tension in the region. The United States has also
called on Afghanistan's neighbors not to intervene militarily,
though ironically timed and themed Partnership for Peace
exercises will begin on September 22 in Uzbekistan. The week-
long exercises, involving troops from the U.S., Russia, Turkey,
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and
Uzbekistan, will deal with how to "escort vehicles carrying
humanitarian aid, help refugees, and provide medical assistance
under warlike conditions," according to Uzbek officials.
Foreign and Prime Ministers, and other high ranking officials
from the U.S., Russia, China, Iran, India, Pakistan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are scheduled to take part in a
discussion of the Afghan crisis on Monday, September 21, at UN
headquarters in New York. What they hope to achieve is unclear.
The Taleban have now called for UN mediation of their dispute
with Iran, but neither side appears ready to negotiate, and the
UN has approached the request cautiously. With no prospect of a
physical intervention by the UN in Afghanistan, and the Taleban
unwilling to moderate their behavior, the UN's only prospective
role is as a Taleban tool to delay an Iranian intervention.
Iranian-Pakistani relations are rapidly deteriorating, the
Taleban are unlikely to alter their course, time is running out
for an Iranian military option, and there are few other options
on the table. The question, then, is this: Will the ministerial
meeting at the UN discuss alternatives to an Iranian
intervention, or the results of the Iranian intervention?
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