To: Rajala who wrote (15396 ) 9/23/1998 11:23:00 AM From: DaveMG Respond to of 152472
Rajala, My apologies if what you say is true. 3g is obviously very important which is why we've spent so much time on it on this thread. In fact it's so important that it's makes these predictions of future growth rates of GSM vs CDMA ridiculous.It appears, at least until now, that everyone will migrate to some form of CDMA, so how can one argue that GSM will outgrow CDMA? It certainly looks like QCOM is going to play a role to a lesser or greater degree in ALL FUTURE 3G systems. So the question is to what degree? I think Greggs argument that Q IPR must be VITAL to what ETSI is calling WCDMA is irrefutable. The context of the whole WCDMA/CDMA 2000 discussion would make no sense whatsoever if this were not true. So at issue is not IPR's but as Maurice says,politics. To think that these companies ie ERICY will steal Q IPR is folly.Just look at the G* Limited Partners, investors in the Pegasus Consortium, some very large global corporations like GE, AIG, Daimler Benz, Airtouch to name a few. These firms have made investements in Q technology in its present iteration and are not going to simply sit by and watch while their interests are illegally compromised. The US gov will not let the IPR be ripped off either IMO, so we can forget about that. So we are left with two options as far as I can tell. 1)Preferable from a Q investors POV, and from a consumers POV as well,a single global standard, backwardly compatible with all the various systems emerges, Q gets a reasonable royalty,whatever that is, on everything, leverages its comparably vast CDMA experience, engineering depth,takes advantage of its built in royalty ie margin advantage over the competion to do at least a respectable job in the handset mkt, and skates off into a bright future. 2)ERICY and brethren refuse to license Q PR either because they feel it's too expensive or because they feel convergence places them at a large disadvantage vis a vis CDMAone and chooses to go their own way, extending the life of TDMA, reinventing the wheel, whatever.They had better find a genuinely good solution however, one that is at least nearly as good as CDMAone (two) migration path, and preferably from their POV better. So far anyway, they have no alternate solution, but if this scenario comes to pass, Q and CDMA one continues on its already well defined evolutionary path with daily anouncements of advances such as todays High Data Rate options etc, but will be locked out of Fortress Europa.Operators in the rest of the world will have tough choices to make, after all they're the ones who will decide in the end. Seems to me both scenarios look pretty good for Q although option 1, which is what Dr J is shooting for, is clearly better. dave