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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (3045)	9/25/1998 5:29:00 AM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4634

Bill: Interesting, and now for the counterpoint. Consider the SP500 Price / Book still way over historical averages Price / Earnings still way over historical averages Price / Dividend still way over historical averages Dollar is weakening = outflow of foreign capital Earnings growth is slowing (Expect less than 5% next year) Liquidity is tightening Lots of sheeple still are buying the dips. Waaay too much optimism in this market

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (3045)	9/25/1998 9:17:00 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4634

Re: Market Valuation It is interesting to note that the FED model now shows the S&P 500 as undervalued. This model assumes that the forecast operating earnings on the S&P 500 for the next 12 months, divided by the S&P 500 index (the earnings yield) should be equal to the yield on the 10 yr. treasury bonds. As of Wednesday, the model shows the S&P 500 as 4.8% undervalued. A decline in interest rates and a further selloff in the market will dramatically increase the undervaluation. The last time the S&P was undervalued was Aug. 1996. Source: Deutsche Bank Securities. See their web site: yardeni.com Al

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (3045)	9/25/1998 1:41:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 4634

Amigo Bill and friends, Pancho Villa is back! Subject 23006 "-Interest rates are headed lower. -Corporate America has not gone out of business. -There is no evidence that global conditions have caused enough of a slowdown in domestic growth to knock us into recession. -Insider buying accelerating to its highest level in years. -Corrections in some sectors (financial services, drillers, etc.) were extremely severe. -Most if not all the bad news is out. -I don't remember the last time there was this much pessimism. " IMO your list has an extremely optimistic tone. (sorry, Pancho does not understand subliminal jokes in languages other than Spanish:-).

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (3045)	9/26/1998 4:09:00 PM
From: Michael Bidder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4634

Bill I borrowed this from yahoo, does this opinion have merit? <<There is going to be a market meltdown, the likes of which we have not seen since 1929. This collapse will have multiple causes, not the least of which will be Wall Street's enthusiasm for hyping up companies they underwrite to valuation levels that are utter lunacy. ... The latest market correction should have served as a warning sign to investors that all was not right. Instead, the major Wall Street brokerages houses have responded by issuing an ever greater number of "strong buy" recommendations on many companies which have no hope of ever making a profit, espescially, but not at all limited to, areas like the internet and computer services. One thing I have learned is that any system based on corruption will ultimately collapse in a heap of rubble. Wall Street's hyping of companies to unreasonable levels and the misuse of accounting standards will level this market. What will likely precipitate this collapse is the Options market in Chicago. This market gives investors the potential to reap extraordinary gains, and also catastrophic losses. The Bailout arranged for Long Term Credit Bank is only the first example of how the options market has injected a huge amount of leverage into our financial system, which is also what caused the collapse of the stock market and banking system in 1929. Keep in mind that the effect of the options market on our financial system has never been tested in a vicious bear market since its inception in 1973, and has not been in such widespread use until recently. It will take awhile for people to realize that they have been lied to by the brokerage houses, that the major players are interested in lining their own pockets at the expense of everyone else. Unfortunately, there is no way around a collapse now. The only question is when. My guess is very soon, the major brokerage houses will attempt to turn the Public Relations crank and it will no longer work. Panic will ensue and the trickle out of the stock market will turn into a stampede.. messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com Michael Bidder