To: gnuman who wrote (65591 ) 9/29/1998 11:47:00 AM From: Mary Cluney Read Replies (6) | Respond to of 186894
Gene,>>> Digital photography devices, appliances, set-tops, dumb terminals, various StrongArm app's, etc. <<< These, I believe, are just a side show. They will never exceed more than 10% of Intel revenue - but it will buy Craig Barrett some time and keep the nervous nellies and extreme pessimists (present company excluded) from dumping the stock. In five years time, I believe, Intel will be the dominant company in the computer industry for these reasons: IBM will have lost their way as Lou Gerstner will turn IBM into (under the best scenario) a next century GE - with a portfolio of fairly profitable technology, services, and financial companies. When it comes to technology, Gerstner just doesn't have the technology background or inclination to provide IBM with a coherent vision that could translate into anything new in the technology area that could become dominant. As for Microsoft, the share prices reflect total domination in the software market for at least five years. Anything short of total domination will be a disappointment. But, you could never sell Bill Gates short. It is likely that he will find and develop dominant niches in content. The distinction between hardware, firmware, software, however, will blur even more. Therefore, I believe, Intel will more likely to be successful going into some areas of software than Microsoft will be in going into some areas of hardware (if that makes any sense). Intel's dominant position will be spearheaded by the IA64 platform. Further, a lot more of the OS, Communications, and the more complex Applications software will be embedded in the hardware. As a consequence, I see Intel encroaching into territories that are now dominated by IBM (mainframes), Sun (WS and Servers), Cisco (communications), and Microsoft (OS software). Intel is more focused, has the financial muscle, and occupies the center, or middleground, to bring all these things together in a coherent manner - more so than any other company in the world today. When I see Intel investments in technology (a portfolio of small hi-tech companies) and research (Virtual National Lab, IA Lab, and Oxford University) - I see an intelligent strategy coming into focus. So, while some pessimists and self proclaimed Analyst guru legend are examining ASP's in Celeron, Mendocino, sub $500 computers (yesterday's concerns), and whatever else that sounds good in a sound bite, Intel is gearing up for real growth. Mary Cluney PS: I wrote the above as much in response to your post as it is to clarify for myself the reason(s) for my investment. I just hope I didn't embarrass myself before a lot very technically knowledgeable people.