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Technology Stocks : VLSI Technology - Waiting for good news from NASDAQ !!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shane forbes who wrote (4495)	10/1/1998 5:02:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6565

Here's some chip stock news although there's nothing specific to VLSI. cbs.marketwatch.com I believe the only thing holding VLSI back from rallying to 9 1/2 - 10 is the overall poor market conditions. The demand is good below 7 3/4 but there are enough sellers around with the market tanking to temper rallies. I am testimony to this as I have been in and out of the stock several times this week for 1/4 to 1/2 point profits although I made 1 5/8 on my buy at 7 1/16. I think the stock is dirt cheap and want to hold a long term position in it, but you can see the sellers come in when the market starts to drop. The mentality is to get out before somebody beats you to it, so instead of holding, I have been trading it to lock small gains. Why hold it at 8 when you can take a 3/8 point profit and buy it back again? The way it's moving around, the worst one can do is buy it back where you sold it after the latest market selling wave passes. If enough people think along these lines, you can see why it has been in a holding pattern. The good news is that the stock is basing during the big decline in the market. The longer the base, the better the pop when it starts to move up. Luck to all, Dan

To: shane forbes who wrote (4495)	10/1/1998 5:10:00 PM
From: Ghassan I. Ghandour	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6565

Shane: You'r my kind of investor, holding both VLSI (bought at 10) and INPR (last bought at 5 1/8 as a substitute for NOVL which I sold at 12 1/2). I have also weathered the stormy market, this year, with the help of the large capital gain I made last year on a stock you won't believe (it is AND or Andrea which I rode up long then down short). Good luck... and Go both VLSI and INPR Ghassan.

To: shane forbes who wrote (4495)	10/7/1998 8:35:00 PM
From: Kevin Hay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6565

re: << RE: Shane, were you smart enough to avoid all this nastiness of the last couple months? If that pertains to VLSI - a small yes. If that pertains to my entire portfolio - a huge no! >> =-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-===-=-=-= Up until July I'd made money on vlsi positions 6 times long and 5 short. With this, my other trading, and a core holding of msft I was up over 50%. Starting in August I stopped trying to trade and was planning on building positions for next year. I don't get into something unless I'm fundamentally into it and I plan, on average, to buy 3 times, with the third being the 'absolute bottom'. Oh yeah, and I DO use margin. I tend to think like you and refuse to sell at these absurd prices. But I'm now a couple of bad days away from a margin call and trying to evaluate a) if I should hold on as long as I can and b) if not, what kind of exit strategy to add to the way I trade. **also, I've given back all my gains and am recently slightly in the red for the year. all of my 3-buy positions are well below the 3rd buy. As a caveat, I did try to short against the box on vlsi ~12ish, but Schwab didn't have the shares to loan. There's one side of me saying my strategy is ok, and that I'm still doing better than a lot, if not most. The other side is wishing I had a DanZ style of bailing when the chart breaks down. My main problem with TA is that so many people know about and trade on similar assumptions that it seems like an easy way to get manipulated, though I'm pretty much feeling that way now anyway! Clinton is calling this the worst global financial situation since ww-II, and I just saw a guy on cnbc saying that in 30 years in the biz, this is the second worst time since the early 70's (73 and 74??) he's seen. (Jim Awad). Bonds have become a major momentum play, surprsingly. My perception is that there are still quite a few people similar to myself who keep getting margin calls. (I'm not there yet, but could be any day now) LTCM has two nobel prize winning economists that developed and maintained their hedging strategy/model and they crashed and burned a while ago now -- had to get bailed out. Am I deluding myself that with a couple tweeks of my system, limiting the downside, I can beat these type of folks? Am I a fool to make a major allowance for market conditions that rarely exist? I could go on...., In short, I'm in a 're-evaluting' stage and am trying to see what's to be learned from recent events. apologies for the length. I guess while vlsi news is slow I'd like to invite a bit of trading philosophy discussion. thanks, -Kevin