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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Dodge who wrote (2529)	10/7/1998 8:11:00 AM
From: Edward F. Horst Jr.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4509

Why are they ignoring the facts from the company, e.g. the CC, etc? PSFT said SAP pricing isn't impacting them! Oracle has stated the pricing statement was standard boilerplate, taken out of context and exaggerated. It seems that Analysts had been getting some heat for not adjusting company expectations going forward, so now they all seem to be in the herd mentality of "take that". I'm sure these two are fine analysts who work hard. My question is more to whose drum are they marching to. Much of the downgrades are absolutely counter to what the companies are reporting and saying. Company's get sued for misleading investors, not analysts. Analysts are in this mode of "maybe this negative will happen", or some similar beliefs or opinions. These downgrades cause significant pain for company's in terms of doing M&A, options to retain people, perceived weakness in the competitive marketplace, etc. Just the facts folks, please. Keep the fear and emotion out of it. Can anyone else read what PSFT says and what analysts are saying and come to the conclusions the market has made?

To: Don Dodge who wrote (2529)	10/10/1998 10:53:00 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

Hi Don, I agree that Chuck and Rick are good analysts. But they do blow it too. For example, Chuck gave an accumulate on Forte Software at a near all time high. It lost about 90% from there. Phillips also was negative on Arbor Software in late 1996 which created a very good opportunity going into earnings in January 1997. On the other hand, he was (I think) negative on Remedy and Vantive which were very good calls. With respect to PSFT, he was a strong buy until it lost about 50% of its value. Not his greatest call. Sherlund was right on Oracle before it cracked last year. It was a particularly good call considering he was alone. But he missed a call on "earnings visibility" on ITWO just before they reported strong earnings about a year or so ago. He also had his pick of the year, Genesys Telecommunication, go nowhere but down from the time he recommended it. So, I agree, they are good but they blow it too. My biggest concerns about the downgrades is Sherlund because he works for PSFT's investment banker. Company's don't mess with their investment bankers, so its likely to be a weak report on October 20. But as in baseball, its wait til next year for this stock. But maybe it will surprise. I'm holding on just in case. Regards David