Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mauser96 who wrote (2652)	10/13/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4509

Lucius, I think I'm getting a little tired of glib comments like "the industry is becoming commoditized". Are you claiming that software is fungible, or simply that there is increasing competition? The fact that once an ERP vendor establishes his presence in a company that presence persists for a very long time argues that ERP software products are not fungible, and in any case, the high profit margins argue against commodity characterizations. I believe that what is going on right now is myopia. Over the intermediate to long run we can expect the ERP market to expand at a very healthy rate. However, given the economic softness we have seen over the past couple of quarters both in the US and in Asia (and now in South America) it is entirely possible that some major companies are deferring making major commitments at this time. But that is a deferral, not a cancelation. That translates into burgeoning pent-up demand. But the market is evaluating this possibility with an extraordinarily high discount rate. I listened to an economist talking about likely business prospects over the next year or so. He indicated that he expected business to pick up in the second half of next year. If that is pretty much a consensus view, then it argues that the market has pretty much written off PeopleSoft as a growth company. That is an argument I simply do not share. If my view is correct, I would look for PeopleSoft to explode upwards at the first hint that the economy is or has turned around. TTFN, CTC