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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (8241)10/15/1998 4:09:00 PM
From: Stuart C Hall  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 16960
 
Lifted this info from TMF board. Check it out, I'd be interested in all comments:

superstockpicks.com



To: Sun Tzu who wrote (8241)10/15/1998 4:14:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 16960
 
OT -- Is the Fed rate cut good for the market or bad? I'm all ears to hear your comments.

The case for the good:

A fed cut will ease the cost to the banks, which will encourage them to lend money to corporations at a lower rate, which will ease the cost of funds to corporations, which will encourage investment in real economy, which will give rise to economic growth, which will make the world a happier and safer place to live in :D)

The case for the bad:

The rate cut means that the situation is even worse than we thought. The banks have been burnt very badly and will not wish to lend more money at low rates. Instead they will use this extra profit margin to heal theirown wounds. In addition, by far the most prevailent trade around the globe has been the yen carry; meaning shot yen and long T-bills. The second most popular trade has been long Corporate bonds and short T-bills i.e betting that the credit spread (read crunch) will disappear. The rate cut could mean a lower dollar, which would hurt the first position, and a bigger spread, which would hurt the second position, thereby actually adding to the volatilety and forcing the hedge funds (and banks alike) to liquidate their positions for even louder cries of "Oooch!".

Last call for bets...red or black...place your chips now...