To: Stephen B. Temple who wrote (1552 ) 10/20/1998 7:13:00 PM From: Stephen B. Temple Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3178
OT> STUDY/ EXPECT 25 TERABITS PER SECOND BY 2002 October 20, 1998 FIBER OPTICS NEWS via NewsEdge Corporation -- It's hardly a secret the Internet is exploding demand for bandwidth. But a new study puts a number on where this demand is leading. "Global data traffic demands on telecommunication carrier networks, driven in part by increasing Internet usage, will grow at a 250 percent annual clip through 2002, providing significant opportunity for SDH/SONET and wave division multiplexing (WDM) manufacturers," a report from Parsippany, N.J.-based Insight Research discloses. "Fiber optic SDH/SONET-layered ring networks will continue to be the backbone for high-speed carrier networks, but they will increasingly use WDM technology to create the capacity to carry the expected data bandwidth demand - 25 terabits per second by 2002." A "Photonic Moore Curve" is allowing manufacturers to double transmission bandwidth capability every 18 months while cutting cost per bit per second in half every two years, the report shows. At $80,000 per month for a transcontinental T-3 line, the cost today of transporting a single bit is about two nanodollars, or two billionths of a dollar. The cost easily will drop to 0.2 nanodollars per bit within three years, a result of competition among carriers and technological advances such as DWDM. ...WDM To The Forefront As demand rises, more and more WDM technology will be called on to provide increased bandwidth, according to "High-Speed International Fiber Optic Communications: SDH/SONET or WDM 1998-2003." "WDM will be the most cost-effective option carriers have to provide the necessary bandwidth without installing additional fiber," says Robert Rosenberg, Insight president. "We expect WDM revenue to top $4 billion in 2002. It's what the carriers must buy to keep up with demand." SONET-layered ring networks and SDH will remain the predominant backbone for high-speed networks with OC-48 and/or OC-192 add/drop multiplexers at network nodes. But they will increasingly use WDM technology to allow network capacity to grow to 80 Gbps or more. WDM also may be integrated into OC-12, OC-48 and OC-192 networks as long as vendors provide standard wavelengths in the 1550nm window. "The mix of OC-48 and OC-192 WDM architecture requires fewer rings and saves on cost," the report states. In some cases WDM cannot be placed over the SONET layer, requiring costly transponders. In general, however, WDM will be the most cost-effective option that provides the necessary bandwidth without installing more fiber. ...Expanding The Optical Layer "In the future, it is likely that optical technology and more advanced switching technologies will extend the optical layer capability further," the report states. "It will allow the use of optical switching for recovery from failures as well as expansion of the add/drop multiplexing function. "The first optical cross-connects are expected to be able to route a particular wavelength from one fiber route to another without reducing it to an electronic form," the report continues. "Still later will come the ability to optically move a particular bit stream from one wavelength to another, allowing for more effective packing of fiber links." The 250-page market research study is available for $3,495.