To: N. Dixon who wrote (1141 ) 10/17/1998 3:36:00 PM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50712
ND, I have had more time to review some old information as well as the package I received from REFR. I have also spent some good time on the phone with Harary. Sure, there is a great potential out there for the technology in general, and I am sure that continuous development is continuing. But there is also the reality that other similar technologies have had a long and arduous path, with possibly, much greater resources put behind those other technologies and yet, the only current commercial application having a limited success so far is the automotive rear dynamic rearview mirror, and even that success has not become a standard in the industry, as yet. I think that Mama Bear's tactics of looking at the technical behavior of the stock has a lot of merits, since it is the behavior of the stock that will be the first indication that indeed some commercial success is looming over the horizon. The market right now is simply saying "show me". As for the financial condition of the company, yes it does look fine with their current burn rate, but if all they get in the next two years are just few small front payments, then there is a grave danger that the financing now in place will become a Damocles sword. In management place, I would draw on the 1.5 MM shares quarterly, even at these prices, just to assure long term survival (and would not go into the market buying shares, I do not think that in this case, a company with negative cash flow, the market likes spending of cash resources on buying stock). By the way, have you looked in details at the 18 US patents still in force? I think that if the technology is commercially viable, some of the basic patents have just expired. For instance, US #4,078,856 entitled "Light Valve" seems to be a generic patent to the technology, but having been issued 3/14/78, it has just expired. That means that the basic principle of using electrically alignable particles in a liquid can be used by anyone, as long as they use particles or suspending liquids that differ from the specific system patented in some later patents. Another important patent teaching the use of halogenated fluids as carriers (5,729,773) has only until Dec 2006 to run. Patent 5,111,311 (Electro-optical Modulator) is truly useless, since the claims cover only optical valves used in telecommunication, and at switching speeds in excess of m-seconds, it is inconceivable that these would be commercial. The number of patents is indeed impressive, but time is running out and to capitalize on this body of intellectual property, speed is of the essence. I think the market is starting to lose faith that commercialization can occur fast enough to allow for the big expected pay off. Good luck. Zeev