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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (3175)	10/22/1998 6:29:00 PM
From: Elmer	Respond to of 4509

Thanks for your insights. ITWO is cool. Now we need a bottom for PSFT in two weeks.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (3175)	10/22/1998 7:31:00 PM
From: ratlong	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4509

Michelle, All in all, a strong "market" analysis- which is the type I like because I'm no good at looking at charts... Add a couple of things: SAP has an installed base in 460 of the Fortune 500- that is pretty hairy, beat on the chest and eat banannas. Once a gorilla has a market, they have to really screw up to lose it. Also, with the TCO for these applications, cost of switching is way high. Because of this, PSFT is going to have trouble displacing in this market. Your cycle analysis is right on. To lengthen that cycle, traditional Tornado/Gorilla theory has a company offering new capabilities in the same product or in new products to the same market. SAP has offered one major upgrade in the last three years? That won't cut it... I think PSFT is wasting resources trying to displace SAP in their current install base. By the way- a brain fart... stock severely depressed, plenty of cash, great products, strong install base... does Ellison move on this? I totally agree on your second week in Dec. assessment. I like the idea alot. Being in the S&P will drive the price up in the new year. Institutions with new investment strategies, general increase in mutual funds with end of year bonus, etc. I really like the idea of waiting until early Dec- unless is drops below 16 before that time...