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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Philosopher who wrote (3955)	10/23/1998 6:52:00 PM
From: Starowl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5944

Christopher: I think we've seen just about all of the big write-offs but I still see some for the divestitures continuing over the next month. It seems unlikely Adaptec would launch into any other purchases for awhile, at least until it rebuilds its earnings momentum. It looks like personnel reductions have just about finished, having dropped about 1,100 since the beginning of the year. The third quarter (this one) will probably be the first solid-looking one in awhile, showing real evidence of a turnaround. The messy stuff is finished, I think. Uncertainty has diminished. The company is smaller, better focused, and substantially reorganized and re-managed. It is building upon its old SCSI strength while FC struggles to make inroads but fights the legacy problem and the promise of faster SCSI systems. And Adaptec is making an interesting mystery of the "powerful" new RAID product on the horizon. As Boucher said, UDMA has already done its mischief, so there shouldn't be additional, new effects from it. I believe you are right about the historical strength of this quarter (not counting a year ago). Adaptec's CD software should really do well this quarter, especially the Easy CD Creator Deluxe, as sales of CD-RW drives pick up. If the company can get VideOH! out soon enough for the holiday shoppers, it can take advantage of clever advertising to get some recognition for the product, although it will likely take time for it to catch on. Still, now is the time to get it on the street with a blitz of advertising in the appropriate magazines. One would hope it receives decent reviews. I would agree with Switz about the earnings this quarter--better than $0.10 be several cents. I haven't done any calculations; just like the reduction in outstanding shares and the cuts in operating expenses. Barring the unforeseen catastrophe, I agree Europe should be a good market and even better, I guess, after the EuroDollar comes along. Asia's recovery is just beginning. The Fed will consider thoroughly another cut in interest rates next month and just may drop another quarter point. Just some thoughts with a glass of cabernet on a brilliant fall evening. (Yes, there was a rosy sunset). I expect the recent gallop to nearly 16 has exhausted this horse. Will we see a pull back next week? Maybe voodoo will get his 13 7/8? But maybe not. What goes up . . . . Starowl

To: The Philosopher who wrote (3955)	10/26/1998 2:48:00 AM
From: Jim Switz	Respond to of 5944

I believe all the one-time charges related to past events (Ridge, Symbios, spinoffs, RIFs etc.) have been taken, but there may still be a few things lingering. It sure seemed that the company tried very hard, including taking a big revenue hit due to channel-inventory reduction, to get all the poop flushed by the end of Q2. And no, historically Q4 (Jan-Mar) has always been the best each fiscal year, with Q3 second-best. Q1 is typically flat or a little better than the previous Q4, Q2 is somewhat better than Q1, but Q3/Q4 is where the fiscal year has in the past really taken off. This cycle . . . who knows? I'm quite worried about the prospects of worldwide slowdown/recession and Y2K fears locking everyone's brain up next year, with subsequent reductions in capital expenditures.