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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	10/29/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: Fred Levine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

To Steve and all-- Let's hope the comment is true! Thursday October 29, 1:50 pm Eastern Time Brazil may have worst behind it, Fed's Kelley says HOUSTON, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Governor Edward Kelley said on Thursday Brazil was still facing a difficult path getting over its economic crisis but speculated the worst may be over for the Latin American country. ''I think that Brazil has every chance of getting through this perilous period that they're in...I am confident that that country is not going to implode,'' he told reporters after giving a speech on the Year 2000 computer problem. Asked if the threat of a devaluation of Brazil's currency had receded, he replied: ''I have no notion that it's all over with and in the past, but I would hope that perhaps the most worrisome part may be getting behind us now.'' Brazil on Wednesday unveiled a three-year $84 billion austerity plan aimed at getting its ailing economy back on track and laying the foundations for a widely expected multi-billion dollar international assistance package. fred

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	10/29/1998 8:04:00 PM
From: md1derful	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

SF: I'm baaaaack....miss me?? Don't answer that...Steve, what did you think of Cardoso's plan, generally....is it hype, or what people wanted to hear (which means it really won't get implemented) or is this guy serious...either way, a phone's a phone and people gotta yap..this company's gonna still makes zillions!!! Regards.

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	10/29/1998 11:20:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

G7 may issue statement on world finance Friday-MOF Reuters, Thursday, October 29, 1998 at 21:14 TOKYO, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The Group of Seven (G7) industrial nations may issue a statement on global financial issues on Friday if a British proposal for the statement is approved by other member nations, Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa said on Friday. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	10/29/1998 11:23:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil IMF package seen soon, not tied to Congress Reuters, Thursday, October 29, 1998 at 21:20 WASHINGTON, Oct 29 (Reuters) - An International Monetary Fund rescue package for Brazil is expected soon, but a monetary source said on Thursday nothing would be signed this week. The source, who declined to be identified, said he did not expect an international funding package to be directly conditional on Brazil's Congress approving an $84 billion austerity plan detailed on Wednesday. "As far as I know this thing is not going to be dependent on Congressional approval," he said. The IMF has occasionally tied release of its money to approval of an economic program by a local parliament, most recently in Russia this summer. Brazil's austerity plan has already moved to Congress, where some senior politicians are balking at the size of proposed tax rises and where state governors oppose efforts to broaden federal powers over local-level spending. Analysts expect an international rescue deal of some $30 billion for Brazil, including up to $15 billion from the IMF. But relatively comfortable reserve levels in Latin America's largest economy mean much of the money is likely to be precautionary, to be paid out only if economic problems are worse than currently anticipated. The Brazilian central bank said on Thursday that foreign exchange reserves were between $43 and $44 billion. This contrasts sharply with last December's situation in South Korea when Seoul turned to the IMF for help and IMF officials said the country was days away from default. A senior Brazilian central bank official said he expected a rescue package to be finalized "very quickly" -- probably in November. The deal is expected to include money from international lending institutions as well as bilateral funds from the United States and other countries. The first stage will be approval of a letter of intent from the Brazilian authorities to the IMF, followed by approval of a deal from the IMF Executive Board. U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on Wednesday that Washington "looked forward to working with the international community to support Brazil's economic program." washington.economic.newsroom@reuters.com)) Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	10/29/1998 11:25:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Rubin says no plans for emergency G7 meeting Reuters, Thursday, October 29, 1998 at 22:16 WASHINGTON, Oct 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on Thursday the Group of Seven industrial nations had no plans to hold an emergency meeting on recent global financial turmoil. "There are no plans for a meeting," Rubin told reporters after a speech on U.S.-Africa relations. Rubin added that G7 finance officials have been working together closely on ways to reform the global financial architecture. "There's been an enormous amount of work done in this area," Rubin said. "And the thought was now to try to work off that, to put together a framework of principles to provide guidance going forward, and that's the work that is going on right now," he added. G7 government sources have said that a planned statement on reforms to the world financial structure would be issued on Friday. Rubin declined to comment on what this "framework" would entail, but added it should be completed "relatively soon." Turning to Brazil, Rubin supported this week's announcement of a Brazilian economic reform package, saying it was "very constructive." "Obviously the key now is to implement it and implement it quickly and implement it strongly," he said. He said Brazil's economic health was critical to the United States, adding: "It is fairly important for the international community to be helpful to Brazil." Rubin said it was premature to provide details of any possible international response to Brazil's financial crisis. He added that no decision had yet been taken to use Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund to provide bilateral aid to the country. "No decision has been made in any final sense," he said. The Secretary said recent Japanese banking legislation and initiatives to deal with the bad loan problem were "very important and very constructive." "The key now is for that money to be put to use quickly and strongly and with appropriate conditions," he said. He said it is critical for the U.S. and world economy that Japan nurse its own economy back to health. 898-8383, washington.economic.newsroom@reuters.com)) Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	10/29/1998 11:28:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Latam stocks stumble, unconvinced by Brazil plan Reuters, Thursday, October 29, 1998 at 22:30 By Carlos A. DeJuana BUENOS AIRES, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Latin American stock markets tumbled lower in morning trade Thursday after Brazil's three-year $84 billion austerity plan failed to convince the region its troubles were over. The plan, detailed on Wednesday, includes budget cuts and tax hikes expected to pave the way for a $30 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund and other international agencies. A top Brazilian Central Bank official said Thursday he expected the aid package by November. But the fiscal measures were also expected to meet resistance from Brazil's unruly Congress. Urging legislators to find a quick resolution, Finance Minister Pedro Malan told a Senate hearing that Brazil's current economic situation was "fiscally unsustainable." "Either Brazil corrects the imbalances in its fiscal accounts...or we will be permanently thrown to the fate of the economic climate," he said. The concerns were dragging Brazil's Bovespa (INDEX:$BVSP.X) index, which was down 3.98 percent in midday trade. Latin American markets were also worried about the spillover effects of the measures on their own economies. Argentine analysts expected the measures to make a half-percentage point dent in the country's growth for 1999. Argentina sends about a third of its exports to Brazil. Argentina's MerVal <.MERV> index was down 1.05 percent, also beset with profit-taking after a sharp run higher the past weeks. Mexico's leading IPC <.MXX> index was marginally higher after a morning dip, up 0.47 percent, but weighed down by a weakened peso. Chile's <.IPSA> index was off 0.37 percent in laggard trade awaiting third quarter results that are expected to be lean. Economist Mario Vicens at Argentine economic consultancy MV Macroeconomia said the market drops were partly a natural reaction to the sharp gains by bourses over the past weeks in anticipation of the plan. However, "the market isn't sure this won't be like the last time Brazil proposed fiscal measures and didn't follow through with a lot of them," he said. Brazil launched an $18 billion plan last year at the onset of the Asian crisis but managed to only implement part of its proposals. "On the other hand, the markets aren't sliding that much because no one really believes Brazil is going to fall," Vicens said. "There's a lot more trust in (Brazilian President Fernando Henrique) Cardoso. He's not Yeltsin. He's not a weak president in the middle of a crisis; he's a strong one," he said. buenosaires.newsroom@reuters.com)) Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	10/29/1998 11:30:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

BRAZIL FISCAL PLAN - Likely path through Congress Reuters, Thursday, October 29, 1998 at 23:12 BRASILIA, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Brazil's government appeared to have calmed markets with a new $84 billion fiscal austerity package, but must now push the measures through Congress to cut the bloated budget deficit and save its troubled economy. The three-year plan, which includes spending cuts, tax increases and other measures, is aimed at restoring investor confidence and qualifying Brazil for a multibillion-dollar credit line led by the International Monetary Fund. While some of the austerity measures can be introduced immediately via presidential decree, they must eventually be approved by Congress. Other key measures, like a higher financial transactions tax and wider federal powers over local government spending, can only be introduced through constitutional amendments, a long-winded procedure that is likely to take months. It was still unclear how the government planned to implement some measures, such as a rise in the Cofins pension contribution that companies pay to 3 percent of revenue from 2 percent. The government has already submitted to Congress a bill requiring banks and financial institutions to start paying the Cofins contribution for the first time. It also relies on Congress for approval of long-delayed constitutional reforms of the pension system, civil service and tax structure for a large chunk of its planned savings. Following are details of how the government is expected to introduce the measures it announced Wednesday: DECREES -- to have immediate effect, but eventually require Congressional approval. * Decree establishing additional 9 percent social security contributions for civil servants on earnings of more 1,200 reais. * Decree regulating pension plans for public sector workers. ONGOING REFORMS * Social security reform: Chamber of Deputies to vote on three remaining amendments to reform bill, possibly on Nov. 4. CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS -- must pass through panels in both houses of Congress and require approval by a three-fifths majority in two votes in each house. * Constitutional amendment extending to 2006 existing Fiscal Stabilization Fund (FEF) which allows federal government to retain tax receipts normally earmarked by constitution for states and municipalities. The amendment will also propose increasing proportion of taxes that go to federal coffers to 40 percent from 20 percent. * Constitutional amendment raising the CPMF financial transactions tax to 0.38 percent in 1999 from 0.2 percent currently, and to 0.3 percent in 2000 and 2001. * Constitutional amendment establishing minimum retirement ages of 55 for women and 60 for men for all new workers, a point lost during voting on the social security reform bill this year. * Constitutional amendment to reform tax system, which would eliminate a series of taxes and replace them with single value-added tax. Expected by end November. ORDINARY BILLS -- needing approval by simple majority in panels and floors of both houses of Congress. * Government to submit within days bill presenting new, reduced version of 1999 budget including cuts of 8.7 billion reais in central government spending and reduction of 2.7 billion reais in state company spending between 1999 and 2001. Must be approved by Congress before end of current session. Approval seen likely. * Bill introducing 11 percent pension contributions for retired public sector workers. To be submitted once new Congress session begins in early 1999. Government could impose this via decree only after Chamber of Deputies approves three remaining amendments of social security reform bill, providing Congress fails to approve final text of reform before end of current session. This scenario is unlikely. * Bill to regulate civil service reform, which creates limits for personnel costs equivalent to 60 percent of state and municipal revenues and sets standards for performance of civil servants. * New law cracking down on social security fraud. * New law to be submitted by Dec. 4 making all spheres of government more accountable for spending and setting limits for annual debt, deficit, spending and income. * New law restructuring Federal Tax Secretariat to give it greater autonomy. joelle.diderich@reuters.com)) Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	10/29/1998 11:34:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

There's a Light Up Ahead for Latin Markets WEEKDAY TRADER - from Barron's Online. October 29, 1998 By Vito J. Racanelli Investing in Latin American stock markets lately has been a lot like bungee-jumping without a safety net. Shares skyrocket one day on talk of an International Monetary Fund bailout package for Brazil only to plummet the next day on rumors that same country will devalue its currency, the real. The volatility hit a crescendo last month, when major markets south of the border fell to levels not seen since 1995. As of September 9th, for example, Brazil's Bovespa Index was down 45% on the year. Other Latin American markets were doing as badly or worse. (See Weekday Trader, "Gutsy Investors See Value in Latin America," September 10th.) At that point most of Wall Street had capitulated to fears that higher interest rates and currency devaluations would severely pinch corporate profit performances and economic growth across Latin America next year. That is exactly what's going to happen, says Joe Petry, head of Latin American sovereign research for CitiGroup. The economist is now expecting average Latin American economic growth to be 0.6% next year, compared with 5.1% before the emerging market turmoil hit last summer. But Petry and a few other observers have turned more bullish on the prospects for Latin American equities over the next year. They acknowledge, though, that the next couple of quarters will be rough, and much hinges on passage of the Cardoso government's new $24-billion austerity plan. Petry predicts that the Brazilian legislature will pass the government's budget plan, and that will mean the beginning of the end of Latin America's difficulties: He's looking for the region's economic growth to bounce back to a healthy 3% in 2000. That will come in the context of continuing free market reform, low inflation and fiscal restraint, persuading investors that Latin America is not Asia. Deutsche Bank Latin American equity strategist Jane Heap concurs. "I don't think it will be a boom market next year," she says, but Brazil will pass the budget and muddle through. Add an aid package from the IMF, and equities prices will be higher a year from now, she predicts. James Upton, Latin American equity strategist for Credit Suisse First Boston, is encouraged that many countries, like Mexico and Chile, have responded well to this year's economic strains, by tightening government spending and taking other responsible actions. "Even if Latin America faces a year of slow growth [in 1999]...without a doubt, my sense is that things will improve in 2000," says Upton. A year from now, a lot of things that have troubled markets -- like weakness in commodity prices and the recent liquidity crunch -- will begin to fade. Indeed, despite the stomach-churning moves of recent weeks, several major Latin American markets have moved up some 25% from the lows they hit a few weeks ago. Everyone agrees, however, that developments in Brazil are key. "If the Brazilian Congress does pass the budget, you'll see confidence start to be restored," says Emily Alejos, a fund manager at BEA Associates. She says she's more cautious than optimistic, but adds that passage of the budget would allow interest rates -- currently 40% in Brazil -- to come down. That should extend to the whole region and allow investors' confidence to return, she says. Adds Francis Claro, a co-manager of the Evergreen Latin American Fund, which has been moving to cash and is thus underweighted in Latin America right now: "If we saw that Brazil's Congress was cooperative, that a multilateral and substantial aid package was coming, and that U.S. rates would continue to ease, then we'd increase our weighting." Though some of these investors are beginning to be optimistic again, they're still recommending defensive groups like utilities and food retailers. CFSB's Upton favors Coca-Cola bottlers like Mexico's Femsa SA and Chile's Embotelladora Andina SA. The Chilean bottler, in particular, has a strong balance sheet and is increasing volumes, so the company should post earnings of 78 cents per ADR next year, a 15% rise from 68 cents this year, he says. Upton also likes Brazilian electric utility Companhia Paranaense de Energia Eletrica (ELP), known as Copel. The ADRs currently trade at about 5.7 times First Call's 1999 consensus earnings estimates of $1.25. That's slightly below the average P/E of a mere six times projected 1999 earnings for Brazilian stocks. Deutsche Bank's Heap likes Mexican telephone utility Telefonos de Mexico SA. Even after rebounding in recent weeks, it sells at only ten times 1998 estimated earnings, significantly less than either the Mexican market's multiple of 12x-14x or the average P/E of 13x for Latin American telecoms. A favorite pick of both Alejos and Heap is Mexican retailer Cifra S.A., which is majority owned by Wal-Mart Stores Inc. It's a well-managed company with a solid balance sheet, important attributes in tough times like these, says Alejos. The shares do trade at a premium multiple of 21x, but then Cifra's earnings growth is expected to be 15%-20%, about double the market's expected growth of 5%-10%. Nearly everyone agrees that Latin American markets will continue to be volatile in the short term. But as the Brazilian government acts to restore the market's confidence in the region, some investors expect to play offense again in the near-future.

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	10/29/1998 11:43:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Pat Buchanan Says Brazil Should Face Insolvency Alone Dow Jones Newswires NEW YORK -- Brazil should face bankruptcy without a $30 billion safety net partly subsidized by the U.S. padding its fall, said Pat Buchanan, a former Republican presidential candidate. "I don't think we ought to take the surplus we spent 30 years trying to get, and turn it over to the Brazilian authorities so they can spend it on their deficit," Buchanan told CNBC Thursday. IMF aid buoys only those speculators who made ill-advised investments, the political pundit argued, not the country itself, or its population. "Since (those investors) didn't share their profits with us, I don't think we ought to share their losses with them," Buchanan said. He noted that Malaysia accepted no IMF support, "and it's doing no worse or no better than Indonesia, which did." For Buchanan, Brazil should declare national bankruptcy, working it out with its creditors alone. "If we keep this up, we'll have these near disasters until the big one comes and takes us all down," he warned. -Scott Eden; 201-938-5173

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	10/29/1998 11:45:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Tsy's Rubin: G-7 Financial Framework Due Relatively Soon Dow Jones Newswires WASHINGTON -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin Thursday held out the promise of reforms to the international financial system, saying a framework of principles is due "relatively soon." Rubin told reporters that representatives of the Group of Seven Industrialized Nations have been discussing "reform of the financial architecture" in the wake of recent turmoil in emerging markets and Japan. "We have, as you know, been working with the other members of the G-7 for really quite some time now in respect to reform of the financial architecture and we've also been working with developing nations around the world," Rubin said. "More recently, there have been discussions about putting together a set of principles to carry that process forward and that work is going on and when it is appropriate to make further announcements, they'll be made," Rubin said. The Treasury Secretary said G-7 members have put "a tremendous amount of very serious work" into the proposed framework of financial principles. "And the thought now is to try to work off that to put together, if you will, a framework of principles to provide guidance going forward and that's what's going on right now," Rubin said.

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	10/29/1998 11:46:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Top Brazil Telecoms Regulator Touts Privatization Success By KATE BERRY Dow Jones Newswires MIAMI -- One of Brazil's top telecommunications regulators on Thursday touted the success of the country's recent privatization program and reassured investors that it will continue, despite concerns about the economy. Juarez Quadros do Nascimento, Brazil's deputy minister of communications, said at the second annual Latin American Telecommunications Summit in Miami that Brazil is committed to improving its telecommunications and is trying to get universal access. Telecommunications investments in Brazil are expected to exceed $7 billion this year. That compares with just $2.6 million in such investment in 1994. He said Brazil will need roughly $100 billion in telecommunications investment in the next 10 years to bring it up to a service level comparable with other developing nations. As earlier reported, Brazil's government now plans to postpone bids for so-called mirror licenses, or permits, to compete with spinoffs of the recently privatized national phone company, Telecomunicacoes Brasileiras SA, or Telebras (TBR). The presentation of bids has been postponed until Dec. 11, from Nov. 3, he said. The bidding process will begin Jan. 15 in the Rio de Janeiro stock market. Nascimento said the privatization of Telebras is driving down the prices of tariffs. The cost of local calls will undergo a 4.9% reduction after 2001, while long-distance prices are expected to fall 28% in the next seven years, he said. Brazil's government sold its remaining 19% stake in Telebras in July for $18.85 billion - making it the largest privatization in Latin American history. Several European telecommunications companies and one from the U.S., MCI Worldcom Inc. (WCOM) were awarded contracts in the bidding. "The next step on privatization is the opening of the market for fixed lines," he said. "From Dec. 31, 2001, there is not going to be any limit on the number of providers." Nascimento didn't comment on the likelihood that Brazil's just announced $23.5 billion Fiscal Stability Program for 1999 would pass Brazil's Congress, or its possible effects on telecommunications privatization in the country. -By Kate Berry; 305-379-3744; kate.berry@cor.dowjones.com

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	10/29/1998 11:48:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil's Cardoso Vows Won't Bargain With Congress On Plan Dow Jones Newswires BRASILIA -- The Brazilian government is not prepared to bargain with Congress on the approval of the three-year austerity plan which was announced Wednesday, a presidential spokesman said Thursday. "Any changes suggested by Congress will first have to be discussed with the government's economic advisers," said Georges Lamaziere, the interim spokesman for President Fernando Henrique Cardoso at a daily press briefing. According to Lamaziere, Cardoso won't allow any bartering for favors in exchange for approving certain measures of the plan. As reported, in a move to curb the growing economic crisis, Brazil's government Wednesday presented a much-awaited austerity plan for the period 1999-2001. The plan aims at saving 28 billion reals (BRR) ($1=BRR1.19) next year alone. The fiscal measures include a number of controversial tax hikes and has to be approved by Congress before it can be implemented. Earlier Thursday Finance Minister Pedro Malan officially handed the proposals to Congress where he defended the plan during a four-hour hearing before three Senate committees in joint session in the upper house plenum. As to the opposition parties' call made Thursday for a broad "anti-plan front", Lamaziere said Cardoso stands by his willingness to talk with whoever is prepared to do it. -By William Vanvolsem; 5561-244-3095; wvanvolsem@ap.org

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	10/30/1998 12:04:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (12) \| Respond to of 22640

Closing figures for the Baby Bras Preferred shares on the Bovespa for: 10/29/1998 ******* The 12 Baby Bra preferred shares represent the Bovespa close at 3:00...NYSE close may be different Company Type Symbol OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHG TRADES $ VOLUME ======= ==== ====== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ====== ============ EMBRATEL PAR PN * EBTP4 16.10 16.50 14.50 15.60 - 4.29% 236 272,600,000 TELE CL SUL PN * TCSL4 1.20 1.26 1.14 1.15 - 4.16% 131 385,500,000 TELE CTR OES PN * TCOC4 0.90 0.94 0.88 0.93 = 0.00% 111 420,200,000 TELE CTR SUL PN * TCSP4 11.00 11.70 10.30 11.10 - 5.12% 150 265,900,000 TELE LEST CL PN * TLCP4 0.60 0.60 0.52 0.55 -11.29% 129 607,600,000 TELE NORD CL PN * TNEP4 0.77 0.80 0.73 0.73 - 8.75% 148 911,600,000 TELE NORT CL PN * TNCP4 0.33 0.33 0.31 0.31 - 8.82% 122 774,600,000 TELE NORT LE PN * TNLP4 14.00 14.00 13.00 14.00 - 1.40% 154 271,600,000 TELE SUDESTE PN * TSEP4 4.30 4.30 3.89 4.20 - 1.17% 209 482,400,000 TELEMIG PART PN * TMCP4 1.20 1.20 1.13 1.16 - 7.20% 115 389,000,000 TELESP CL PA PN * TSPP4 8.20 8.30 7.90 8.00 - 4.76% 143 379,000,000 TELESP PART PN * TLPP4 28.00 29.00 27.00 28.00 - 6.66% 186 454,300,000 ------ R$ 85.73 R$ 85.73 / 1.1922 = US$ 71.91 Closing figures for the Baby Bras Common shares on the Bovespa for: 10/29/1998 These shares trade only in Brazil (Control or Voting shares), will not match up to US ADR Company Type Symbol OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHG TRADES $ VOLUME ======= ==== ====== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ====== ============ EMBRATEL PAR ON * EBTP3 8.00 8.00 7.50 7.83 - 5.66% 8 7,600,000 TELE CL SUL ON * TCSL3 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 = 0.00% 1 5,000,000 TELE CTR OES ON * TCOC3 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 + 1.49% 1 28,000,000 TELE CTR SUL ON * TCSP3 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 - 7.14% 1 700,000 TELE LEST CL ON * TLCP3 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.39 = 0.00% 7 43,100,000 TELE NORD CL ON * TNEP3 0.46 0.46 0.43 0.43 -10.41% 5 58,000,000 TELE NORT CL ON * TNCP3 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.25 -10.71% 2 67,200,000 TELE NORT LE ON * TNLP3 5.80 6.10 5.80 6.10 - 2.24% 3 10,700,000 TELE SUDESTE ON * TSEP3 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 = 0.00% 1 800,000 TELEMIG PART ON * TMCP3 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 = 0.00% 1 1,600,000 TELESP CL PA ON * TSPP3 3.40 3.50 3.30 3.40 - 2.85% 8 3,300,000 TELESP PART ON * TLPP3 20.99 20.99 19.50 19.50 - 2.74% 15 13,900,000 Closing figures for Telebras receipts on the Bovespa for: 10/29/1998 These symbols are kind of the US TBH equivalent without the crazy premium. I believe the first two are the normal receipts, don't know about rest...anyone? Company Type Symbol OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHG TRADES $ VOLUME ======= ==== ====== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ====== ============ TELEBR RCTB RON* RCTB30 49.00 49.00 46.50 47.50 - 4.04% 146 151,300,000 TELEBR RCTB RPN* RCTB40 86.00 86.00 82.50 84.50 - 3.75% 1068 2,123,800,000 TELEBR RCTB RON* RCTB30T 48.70 48.71 48.70 48.71 0.00% 2 8,000,000 TELEBR RCTB RPN* RCTB40T 87.67 87.67 86.33 87.56 0.00% 5 2,043,942 RCTB RPN* RCTBL18 8.00 8.50 7.10 7.70 -12.50% 202 461,000,000 RCTB RPN* RCTBL28 21.00 21.00 19.80 20.00 -18.36% 11 49,000,000 RCTB RPN* RCTBL3 4.50 4.60 3.65 3.80 -22.44% 1394 2,659,000,000 RCTB RPN* RCTBL30 14.00 14.00 12.70 13.50 -15.62% 18 84,000,000 RCTB RPN* RCTBL4 2.00 2.10 1.60 1.70 -24.44% 1247 2,083,700,000 RCTB RPN* RCTBL5 0.80 0.90 0.70 0.70 -17.64% 192 463,000,000 RCTB RPN* RCTBL6 0.30 0.34 0.25 0.29 -17.14% 18 39,000,000 TELEBR RCTB RON* RCTB30F 48.02 48.80 45.70 45.70 - 7.67% 45 734,922 TELEBR RCTB RPN* RCTB40F 85.00 85.50 83.01 83.01 - 5.45% 36 649,591 Closing figures for other Baby Bra related symbols on the Bovespa for: 10/29/1998 Have no idea what these are...options? Anyone know or want to help figure it out? Company Type Symbol OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHG TRADES $ VOLUME ======= ==== ====== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ====== ============ EMBRATEL PAR ON * EBTP3F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 EMBRATEL PAR PN * EBTP4F 16.00 16.00 15.00 15.60 - 4.29% 4 190,000 TELE CL SUL ON * TCSL3F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELE CL SUL PN * TCSL4F 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 -11.66% 1 80,600 TELE CTR OES ON * TCOC3F 0.62 0.68 0.62 0.68 + 1.49% 2 70,645 TELE CTR OES PN * TCOC4F 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 - 5.37% 1 63,175 TELE CTR SUL ON * TCSP3F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELE CTR SUL PN * TCSP4F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELE LEST CL ON * TLCP3F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELE LEST CL PN * TLCP4F 0.60 0.60 0.56 0.56 = 0.00% 5 251,987 TELE NORD CL ON * TNEP3F 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 -10.41% 1 58,881 TELE NORD CL PN * TNEP4F 0.77 0.77 0.73 0.73 - 8.75% 2 116,988 TELE NORT CL ON * TNCP3F 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 -10.71% 2 58,881 TELE NORT CL PN * TNCP4F 0.30 0.30 0.28 0.28 -17.64% 3 102,689 TELE NORT LE ON * TNLP3F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELE NORT LE PN * TNLP4F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELE SUDESTE ON * TSEP3F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELE SUDESTE PN * TSEP4F 4.00 4.00 3.82 3.82 -10.11% 2 34,801 TELEMIG PART ON * TMCP3F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEMIG PART PN * TMCP4F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELESP CL PA ON * TSPP3F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELESP CL PA PN * TSPP4F 7.90 7.90 7.80 7.90 - 5.95% 5 108,547 TELESP PART ON * TLPP3F 20.00 21.98 20.00 21.98 + 9.62% 2 19,510 TELESP PART PN * TLPP4F 28.00 28.00 27.51 27.51 - 8.30% 3 107,000 Closing figures for other Telebras related symbols on the Bovespa: 10/29/1998 These symbols are for the 52 individual companies, no match to anything, provided FWIW. Company Type Symbol OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHG TRADES $ VOLUME ======= ==== ====== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ====== ============ TELEBAHIA ON * TEBA3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEBAHIA PNA* TEBA5 26.00 26.00 23.50 25.64 - 5.07% 4 220,000 TELEBAHIA CL ON * TBAC3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEBAHIA CL PNB* TBAC6 17.50 18.50 17.50 18.50 = 0.00% 10 960,000 TELEBAHIA CL PNC* TBAC7 29.00 29.00 29.00 29.00 +70.58% 1 30,000 TELEBRAS ON * TELB3 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 = 0.00% 6 29,600,000 TELEBRAS PN * TELB4 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.17 = 0.00% 108 711,200,000 TELEBRASI CL ON * TBRC3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEBRASI CL PNB* TBRC6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEBRASILIA ON * TBRS3 89.00 89.00 89.00 89.00 = 0.00% 1 10,000 TELEBRASILIA PN * TBRS4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEMIG ON * TMGR3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEMIG PNB* TMGR6 36.00 36.70 36.00 36.70 - 2.13% 3 80,060,000 TELEMIG PND* TMGR8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEMIG CL PNE* TMGC11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEMIG CL ON * TMGC3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEMIG CL PNB* TMGC6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEMIG CL PNC* TMGC7 11.20 11.40 11.10 11.20 - 4.27% 16 6,800,000 TELEPAR ON * TEPR3 91.00 91.00 85.01 85.01 -10.51% 3 702,000 TELEPAR PN * TEPR4 194.00 194.00 190.00 193.00 - 3.52% 23 912,000 TELEPAR CL ON * TPRC3 30.00 30.00 28.50 28.50 - 8.06% 2 12,000 TELEPAR CL PNB* TPRC6 49.00 49.00 47.50 47.50 - 5.00% 15 3,538,000 TELERJ ON * TERJ3 19.00 19.90 19.00 19.90 + 4.73% 2 20,000 TELERJ PN * TERJ4 35.30 36.38 33.50 35.80 - 0.55% 120 26,510,000 TELERJ CL ON * TRJC3 18.00 19.00 18.00 19.00 + 1.01% 6 2,120,000 TELERJ CL PNB* TRJC6 32.01 32.01 29.80 31.50 - 3.96% 72 29,030,000 TELESP ON * TLSP3 125.00 129.99 124.00 129.99 + 0.76% 23 5,590,000 TELESP PN * TLSP4 195.00 195.10 184.51 187.00 - 7.88% 374 120,090,000 TELESP CL ON * TSPC3 25.80 25.80 24.16 25.00 - 3.88% 12 1,940,000 TELESP CL PNB* TSPC6 56.50 56.50 52.01 53.20 - 5.84% 172 62,180,000 TELESP PN * TLSP4T 189.69 189.69 189.68 189.68 0.00% 2 100,000 TELESP CL PNB* TSPC6T 54.54 54.55 54.54 54.55 0.00% 2 100,000 TELEBAHIA ON * TEBA3F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEBAHIA PNA* TEBA5F 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 - 7.44% 4 6,655 TELEBAHIA PNB* TEBA6F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEBAHIA CL ON * TBAC3F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEBAHIA CL PNB* TBAC6F 10.01 13.50 10.01 13.50 -27.02% 3 9,953 TELEBAHIA CL PNC* TBAC7F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEBRAS ON * TELB3F 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 = 0.00% 3 68,494 TELEBRAS PN * TELB4F 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.17 = 0.00% 2 105,640 TELEBRASI CL ON * TBRC3F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEBRASI CL PNB* TBRC6F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEBRASILIA ON * TBRS3F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEBRASILIA PN * TBRS4F 97.00 97.00 97.00 97.00 - 2.99% 1 2,853 TELEMIG ON * TMGR3F 19.00 19.00 19.00 19.00 - 5.47% 2 8,163 TELEMIG PNA* TMGR5F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEMIG PNB* TMGR6F 36.00 36.00 35.00 35.00 - 6.66% 2 1,713 TELEMIG PND* TMGR8F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEMIG CL ON * TMGC3F 9.50 9.50 8.62 8.62 -13.80% 2 8,163 TELEMIG CL PNB* TMGC6F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / 0.00% 0 0 TELEMIG CL PNC* TMGC7F 11.20 11.20 11.20 11.20 - 4.27% 2 8,163 TELEPAR ON * TEPR3F 86.00 86.00 86.00 86.00 - 4.44% 1 274 TELEPAR PN * TEPR4F 195.00 195.00 190.02 190.02 - 5.01% 6 1,665 TELEPAR CL ON * TPRC3F 29.01 29.01 29.01 29.01 - 3.30% 3 1,274 TELEPAR CL PNB* TPRC6F 48.00 48.00 47.11 47.11 - 5.78% 4 1,096 TELERJ ON * TERJ3F 18.20 19.00 18.20 19.00 = 0.00% 5 21,396 TELERJ PN * TERJ4F 35.00 35.00 33.51 35.00 - 2.77% 8 32,518 TELERJ CL ON * TRJC3F 17.01 19.90 17.00 19.90 + 5.79% 5 13,441 TELERJ CL PNB* TRJC6F 32.00 32.00 28.51 30.80 - 6.09% 15 52,408 TELESP ON * TLSP3F 123.00 125.10 120.02 125.00 - 3.10% 11 31,869 TELESP PN * TLSP4F 195.01 195.01 184.01 186.00 - 8.37% 40 156,073 TELESP CL ON * TSPC3F 23.01 25.00 23.01 24.70 - 5.03% 8 21,400 TELESP CL PNB* TSPC6F 55.00 55.00 52.00 52.11 - 7.76% 19 73,446

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	11/1/1998 3:15:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil heads down final stretch for IMF backing Reuters, Friday, October 30, 1998 at 23:28 (Updates throughout with comments by Pinho Neto, Malan, Rubin, pvs BRASILIA) By Tracey Ober RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Brazil entered the final stretch on Friday in its quest for a confidence-boosting credit line from the International Monetary Fund, seen as vital for calming investors during the country's economic upheaval. A team of Brazilian officials went to Washington to dot the i's and cross the t's on a multibillion-dollar loan deal as leading industrial nations unveiled an overall plan -- using Brazil as a test case -- to stop global fires from engulfing individual economies. "I think it is likely that in the next few days, we are going to have something signed with the IMF," Demosthenes Madureira de Pinho Neto, director of international affairs for Brazil's Central Bank, told Reuters Television in an exclusive interview. Brazil cleared a major hurdle to the loan two days ago by announcing a tough austerity plan to save $84 billion over the next three years, but the plan must now be approved by a notoriously volatile Congress. U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said Brazil needed to move swiftly to implement its plan. "Obviously, it's very important that they do this effectively and do it with reasonable dispatch," he told reporters in Washington. Brazil's Finance Minister Pedro Malan assured foreign reporters in Rio de Janeiro he had held long talks with party leaders in Congress and they were prepared to pass a package that met all government goals. "I am confident after these conversations that the Brazilian Congress is going to be on top of what the country needs," he said. The fiscal plan is critical for narrowing a gaping budget deficit and cutting crippling interest rates that have already condemned the country to a recession in 1999. Malan said the government had decided to reach out for international help to avoid economic meltdown after seeing how investors panicked at Russia's debt moratorium and yanked billions of dollars out of Brazil's just developing markets. A full-blown crisis in Brazil, the world's eighth-largest economy, would probably drag the rest of Latin America into recession, hindering growth around the world. Reflecting U.S. concern about the fate of the region's largest economy, President Bill Clinton said on Friday that Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso had assured him the plan would be implemented quickly. Brazilian stock markets took heart at the signs of an impending IMF deal and soared nearly 8 percent on Friday. But analysts said global lenders would hand over the cash only after the government proved it had substantial Congressional backing for the spending cuts, tax increases and other measures contained in its fiscal plan. Lawmakers were due to vote next week on three remaining amendments to a long-delayed social security reform bill in what will be seen as a key indicator of the government's capacity to push through other steps. "(The IMF) will only release the money if social security reform has been approved and the government has already introduced some of the measures by decree," said Luciano Dias, political analyst at Goes e Consultores in Brasilia. While some of the fiscal steps can be introduced immediately with presidential decrees, others must be approved through time-consuming constitutional amendments. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	11/1/1998 3:17:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil resistance to G7-pleasing thrift plan grows Reuters, Sunday, November 01, 1998 at 13:08 By Tracey Ober RIO DE JANEIRO, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Brazil's belt-tightening plan announced last week pleased rich nations wanting reassurance the country would sweat to get an emergency credit line, but resistance was growing at home, Sunday papers said. The world's Group of Seven (G7) major industrial nations hailed Brazil's $84 billion austerity plan last week and on Friday said they were prepared to stand behind Latin America's largest economy with ready cash to prevent economic disaster. But as a team of Brazilian officials raced off to Washington to dot the i's and cross the t's on a multibillion-dollar loan deal led by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), local politicians and business leaders began to cast a dubious eye on the fiscal plan. Brazil's leading newspaper O Globo said Sunday there would be strong resistance to the package of tax hikes, spending cuts and social security reforms in at least three powerful states: Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul. For a nation as large as the continental United States, that means getting the plan through Congress unscathed will be as difficult as if the states of California, Florida and all of New England were dead-set against an equivalent U.S. proposal. Part of the problem with this package is that the central government is trying to get a firmer grip on state spending, but it will be a nasty dog fight to wrest even a morsel of control from the powerful state governorships. Although President Fernando Henrique Cardoso still has a comfortable majority of allies in Congress after general elections last month, there is no guarantee the notoriously unpredictable politicians will vote with the government. "I won't accept the conditions of the adjustment," former President Itamar Franco and governor-elect of Brazil's third most-populous state Minas Gerais, was quoted as saying by O Globo. "I'm studying measures to present as alternatives." Leading Sao Paulo newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo said government had underestimated the magnitude of unfavorable reaction to the package and was now scrambling for support. "I saw it and I didn't like it," the newspaper quoted Inocencio Oliveria, the Lower House leader of a party allied to Cardoso, as saying. There have already been signs of discontent on the streets of Brazil's second city, Rio de Janeiro, where its former left-wing mayor just won the state governorship. Protesters have hung banners saying: "Your life is going to get worse." Business and industry leaders blasted the plan as untenable last week, saying higher taxes would stifle competition and drive the already bruised economy deep into recession. They promised to lobby Congress for tax relief. But government officials insist that the economic picture in Brazil would be even bleaker without any austerity measures. "If we don't make this internal adjustment by increasing our domestic thriftiness, we will run into a very strong external contraction that will make our slowdown much sharper and uncontrolled," National Development Bank President Andre Lara Resende said in an interview with Folha. The government said the three-year savings plan was vital for bringing down crippling interest rates that are now at 40 percent a year and cutting the huge budget deficit, which at 7 percent of gross domestic product is the most troublesome part of Brazil's financial picture for economists. Analysts and international investors have said Brazil's proposal, coupled with the confidence boost of an IMF loan, will pull the country back from the brink of economic ruin. But the big question of whether it will get through Congress remains. Brazil's influential newsmagazine Veja said this week that more than 80 percent of the package depended on Congress and the opposition was lining up in an unprecedented united front. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	11/1/1998 3:20:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 22640

G-7 To Seek Support For Econ Reform Plan At APEC Meet By JOSEPH REBELLO Dow Jones Newswires WASHINGTON -- The Group of Seven leading industrial nations, having agreed on what analysts say is an unusually detailed prescription for preventing a recurrence of the global economic crisis, is set to begin lobbying developing countries to adopt the prescription. The lobbying campaign will begin later this week, in meetings in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, of economic officials from the 18 industrial and developing countries that comprise the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, according to officials familiar with the G-7 effort. Those meetings begin Nov. 7 and last through Nov. 18. The G-7 prescription, announced in a communique Friday, involves the creation of a new International Monetary Fund credit line that will make make loans to healthy economies threatened by financial contagion. It also involves a new World Bank emergency credit facility, a vow to pay closer attention to the activities of hedge funds, and an agreement to study how exchange-rate systems in emerging-market countries can be made stable. G-7 experts said the prescription is so sweeping in its scope that its effectiveness will depend on the degree to which emerging-market economies embrace it. They said the group decided it was time to act after months of head-scratching that had made international monetary authorities seem impotent in the face of a deepening global economic crisis. "The name of the game at this point is more heavily implementation as opposed to thinking through the problems," one G-7 official said. Analysts said the implementation of the new IMF credit line is likely to be a key topic in G-7 discussions with developing countries, particularly since Brazil is widely expected to become its first user in the next few weeks. The G-7 plan will allow countries facing sudden capital flight to obtain short-term loans from the IMF, provided they're already pursuing "strong IMF-approved policies." They would have to pay a "surcharge" involving at least 3 percentage points above market interest rates for those loans. "The questions are: 1) What criteria will be established for drawing from the credit line?; 2) Who will set the criteria?; and 3) Who makes the call that a country is no longer eligible for the loans?" said Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs & Co. in New York. "These are complicated issues that will have to be worked out. Is the G-7 going to work it out among themselves, or are they also going to get other countries on board?"

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9283)	11/1/1998 3:26:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Is Brazil's Package All Pain and Little Gain? By LESLIE P. NORTON The three-year, $84 billion austerity plan unveiled by Brazil's Cardoso government paves the way for an IMF bailout, expected soon. The G7 endorsed the plan. And the IMF called it "important progress" and is expected to extend Brazil a credit line of around $30 billion. That's roughly the same amount of foreign-currency reserves lost by Brazil since Russia devalued the ruble in August. The relief won't end Brazil's problems, however. Already, legislators of the world's eighth-largest economy are balking at the plan. And while Cardoso's team expects it to shrink Brazil's economy by 1% next year, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates sees a 4%-5% contraction. A $30 billion bailout is "not only small in relation to the capital outflows but will have to be paid back. It's just a game to keep air in the bubble," says Dalio. He doesn't believe a devaluation is inevitable, but others disagree. Dow Jones Global Indexes \| Emerging Markets \| Global Stock Markets For Brazilian equities, prospects still look grim. The Bovespa index tumbled 14% during the five days ended Thursday, then shot up Friday on a G7 plan to provide additional credit to countries pursuing IMF policies. The Bovespa is up 37% from its September trough, but down 31% since December in local currency, and 36% in dollars. Telebras and Eletrobras sank 20%-plus in the week through Thursday. Declines in Mexico and Argentina were more muted. Chile and much-battered Venezuela gained. Brazil's woes could spell trouble for neighboring countries. Antoine Van Agtmael runs the $1.7 billion Emerging Markets Investors fund in Arlington, Virginia, and is credited with inventing the term "emerging markets." Says Van Agtmael: "A devaluation in Brazil is clearly a negative for Latin America. I don't see an automatic unpegging of the Argentine peso, but devaluation would be 'inevitable' in Venezuela," which is heavily dependent on oil revenues and facing a controversial election December 6. George Foot, managing partner at Newgate, agrees. To Foot, a weak Brazil makes Mexico even more dependent on the U.S. for growth. That's a problem if the U.S. slows more than people expect. Foot may reduce his "neutral" exposure to Mexico. Foot is already overweighted in Brazil, anticipating a "grudging advance" from Brazilian stocks and contending that many large companies, such as Telebras Holdrs, the package of Telebras units traded in New York, "don't need a buoyant economy for good earnings." Will the IMF package induce Van Agtmael to plow more cash into Brazil? Not until "I've seen the bite of recession." That may happen sooner than he thinks. More evidence of the distaste for Third World stocks emerged last week, with George Soros' decision to shut $1.5 billion Quantum Emerging Growth Fund, down 40% since December. (The manager of two other Soros funds, Quota and Quasar International, is also taking temporary leave.) Emerging Growth owns emerging-markets securities-stocks, bonds, and currencies -- and a few U.S. small companies. Its holdings will be absorbed into the flagship Quantum fund. Sonja Kohn, chief of Eurovaluer, has worked long with the world of hedge funds; she advises Austria on economic issues, and also counsels European banks. Kohn foresees more adversity. "Assets will be 30%-40% less at the end of January. I'm concerned, as are most of the people I know, that we'll see a second chain reaction of redemptions. And you will definitely see a reduction of players and volume." Expect to see investors demand more of the following: Preservation of capital, transparency and liquidity. Those requirements can be tough for a Third World investor to fulfill all at once. Yet the ensuing demise of such dedicated funds also suggests that a major destabilizing force in emerging markets is dissipating. Valuations in Latin America are pretty cheap, with most specialists less exposed to Brazil than benchmarks say they should be. Former fans like Morgan Stanley are already bearish. One skilled manager drily comments that people foresee just two outcomes: an extended bear market, or a killer bear market. That isn't dissimilar from views that prevailed in 1988 about U.S. stocks, he notes, when the U.S. was poised to embark on the biggest bull market in history. Italy reduced interest rates last week, following easings elsewhere in Europe. So far the Bundesbank is standing fast. But more cuts may ensue, given slowing growth across the Continent and the move to economic convergence before the 11 nations adopt the Euro in 60 days. Convergence is largely complete. The biggest outlier is Ireland, where short-term rates stand at 4.6%, more than a percentage point above Germany's. And Ireland is unusual, because its economy is still seen growing in the double digits. If Ireland eases to achieve convergence, some folks foresee an asset bubble. "To have even lower interest rates in a booming economy could result in significant pains," observes Charles de Vaulx, who steers the SoGen Funds with Elizabeth Tobin and the celebrated Jean-Marie Eveillard. Ireland illustrates that EMU will be fraught with peril, though ultimately rewarding for investors. De Vaulx argues that the convergence story is masking a divergence between price and value, particularly among smaller companies. (Euro-phoria has already lifted big caps.) The SoGen folks are looking for stocks sheltered from larger macro trends. Despite their concerns about Ireland, they're fans of Irish publisher Independent Newspapers, which also owns stakes in publishers in New Zealand and Australia. To buy Wilson & Horton in New Zealand, Independent issued some convertible preference shares, which mature in 2003, and trade in New Zealand at roughly NZ$8 each. Ignored by local investors, they sport a yield to maturity of 5%, and a conversion premium of just 7%. He's also a fan of Generale D'Affichage, an outdoor-advertising company in Switzerland. "This strikes me as very cheap when you compare it to Clear Channel Communications," he says. "Clear Channel trades at 13-14 times enterprise value to EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization], and this trades at six times, with a similar if not higher profitability." The stock trades at 505 Swiss francs. The SoGen folks are also fans of Buderus, a German heating systems manufacturer depressed by weak construction demand. Its sales and margins have improved, and asset sales mean Buderus now sits on a 500 million-mark cash pile. Soon, predicts Tobin, Germany will permit buybacks. For now, she notes, Buderus' market cap is just 1.7 billion marks, and at 698 marks, it trades at just 4.5 times EBITDA. She also likes Edipresse, a monopoly newspaper publisher in French-speaking Switzerland.