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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (7910)	11/5/1998 11:29:00 AM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

Does Camp call for a recovery this afternoon?? We are at an interesting juncture --- this is about where I was looking to go long but it will not take much for me to get a sell signal on my system. Scott has come up with a couple of good approaches for day trading.

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (7910)	11/5/1998 6:39:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

The new system again is on a buy tomorrow. I would caution however that it is "new" to me. I have run numbers based on buying the open and selling the close on the SPX and it is net positive this year by 231 points, including today. The downside is the drawdowns can be large (today 9 points) and the losses can be large. Largest drawdown was 43 points and largest loss was 36 points. I need to work more with why it works to define the days better where the signal will cause the next day to be up. I also need to work on an entry, exit and money management system for the method. It is not that I am abandoning my other method, as much as I am looking for something to give me better odds on predicting the next day's activity and potentially a position trading system for the mini. If it signals long and I play the long side the next day as opposed to the short, I believe I will have increased my odds. For tomorrow, the run up in the last hour today makes me skeptical of the method's call. I don't have enough experience to figure that out for sure yet, but yesterday I emailed Patrick with the following regarding today's buy signal. "Tomorrow it signals a buy. Is that simply because the internals were so strong today and the "move" is over? Thinking about it, I don't think so. GZ's 25 day ADV/DECL is solidly in the buy category. Further, if the internals were so strong today, why did we fail in the last few hours? I think tomorrow the day on a whole is up. If that is true....it is just one other little way to move the odds to favor the trader....gotta like that!" So analysis for tomorrow....GZ's 25 day ADV/DECL is still strongly in positive territory. It would take quite a tanking in the internals to turn his method. However, the internals today were not as good as yesterday, but they were still strong. I think I might look to buy weakness, but I think that tomorrow will be a losing day on the buy the open sell the close theory....maybe not, but that is my guess. I would guess at some point we will trade below the open by 10 to 15 SPOO points (intially I said 5 to 10 points and changed that to 10 to 15, so you can see it is merely a guess) and that might be the time to think long. As I said it needs further examination, but I think it has some merit and some possibilities. Best of Luck. I won't be around during market hours again tomorrow. -Scott EDIT - Let me add, that occassionally the market internals support a buy, but they are so overbought that the next day simply sells off all day. Will tommorrow be that day? Maybe. I just read somewhere that the DOW RSI is over 90....extreme overbought. I guess all I am saying is the system is new and although it has generated positive SPX points on the year, I think tomorrow might not be too reliable given the last hour's run today.