Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (35609)	11/9/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: Sid Turtlman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

MB: I don't know if you have seen Fred Hickey's latest letter, but his theory is that trouble amongst the suppliers to the box makers will start showing up in a few weeks. As usual, everyone is overproducing (e.g., between INTC, AMD and others there will be about 33-34 million microprocessors produced in Q4, versus PC shipments of 27-30 million), but what is different this year is that, attempting to emulate DELL, the usual customers are no longer willing to be stuffed with inventory. Accordingly, component makers might have had a good October, but by the second half of November their business will slow way down, and December will be terrible. I bought some January puts on INTC on Friday to have some breathing room, but Decembers might work out fine.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (35609)	11/9/1998 2:40:00 PM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

MB. At a time like this where you are keeping your powder dry waiting for the Christmas lies to be told, what do you do with your 10 of 90/10. Is it allocated to option income strategies, or just sitting and waiting? It may seem like a stupid question, but I think there is a lesson going on here. Patience. Sometimes doing nothing is the hardest thing to do. You have a strategy. It seems you are being patient. I have no quibble with the thread that stocks are WAY too high. But that doesn't necessarily equate to always fire all the ammo at shorts and puts nor to decide to join in the craziness on the long side either.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (35609)	11/9/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

How come suddenly most Merril Lynch analysts chose to tell the truth? <<The S&P 500 is only at 21.7 times Goldman's $52.50 estimate of next year's earnings -- one reason Goldman's bullish U.S. portfolio strategist, Abby Joseph Cohen, has argued the market is if anything, undervalued. Not so fast, responds Richard Bernstein, chief quantitative strategist at Merrill Lynch. Calling stocks cheap on operating profit is "cheating. When you tend to look at operating earnings, you tend to ignore the true cyclicality of the company and every company will look more stable on an operating basis. What becomes a scarcity during a profits recession is the ability to grow your earnings on a reported basis. Not everybody can do that. The few companies that can will get bid up and outperform the market.">>

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (35609)	11/9/1998 3:47:00 PM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

"Because you would otherwise be paying a really high stock price" This quote is from the aol thread. What a pitiful thread. It is like total MythMan, but these people are serious. So they have a discussion going about the pending split in aol and they don't want to pay the 145 or so price if that means they don't get additional shares when the price drops in half. So the guy says gosh it would be really high if i paid double. For some reason it just cracked me up. Like there is any reality in internet stock prices. I wanted to say "Oh go ahead. You are paying 20 times the value anyway, what's another 2 times?"

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (35609)	11/9/1998 5:32:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Interesting remark. Can you elaborate on your strategy for put buying here? You say you are not a market timer, but MU has moved up enough since your first third that you would purchase, but the time is not right? Does this mean that you expect it to go higher? Are you really desiring to stagger the expirations of the 1/3s you buy? Do you often attempt to do this? What is key as to whether or not to wait, if this is your method?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (35609)	11/9/1998 6:05:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

To All, Funny bull/bear debate on CNBS today. David Tice took the bear side, and, though I like him, he is too danged polite with these airheads he debates. Anyway, the bull, whose name I forget if I ever even heard it, gave the bull case. Then he made what I consider a very telling comment: "I may not be able to prognosticate very well, but I know how to follow a trend." Yikes! And there are people who allow this geek to manage their money. MB