To: Gemini who wrote (78397 ) 11/11/1998 11:43:00 PM From: brian z Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
Can Dell Keep Up The Pace? (11/11/98 4:25 p.m. ET) By Sergio G. Non, TechWeb When Dell reports its third quarter earnings on Thursday, Wall Street wants to hear about more than just the bottom line. Among the 28 analysts surveyed by First Call, estimates for Dell's third quarter range between 25 cents and 29 cents a share. The company earned 18 cents a share in the third quarter of its last fiscal year. But Wall Street now wants to hear that Dell, the world's largest direct seller of PCs, can maintain its growth rate. Not everyone is certain it can do that in the coming quarters: A research note released this week by Piper Jaffray said Dell's third quarter growth rate in desktops was just 7.6 percent compared to the previous quarter, slower than the overall market's 9.6 percent growth. On the other hand, Dell's rivals -- Compaq, IBM, Hewlett-Packard, and Gateway -- easily outpaced the market, said Piper Jaffray analyst Ashok Kumar. Things won't get any easier for Dell, Kumar said. "The company cannot expect to maintain its historical growth by expanding customer share," Kumar said. "It would need to come from market share gains -- a difficult proposition in today's competitive environment." Rivals are also turning to direct sales. Gateway, the second-largest direct PC seller, has done well with its Your :)Ware program. On Wednesday, Compaq announced a plan to directly sell its computers to small and medium-sized businesses. "The market they're targeting is big," said Jimmy Johnson, analyst with A.G. Edwards. "If Compaq can be competitive on price, that would be an impact on Dell." Despite his warning that the stock may be overvalued, Kumar maintains a strong buy rating on Dell, and other analysts say there's little they don't already know. "We expect them to come in line with expectations," Johnson said. "We're looking at 50 percent revenue growth." Although growth in the desktop market will become more difficult for Dell, Johnson said, the company is branching out into other areas, such as servers and storage. To keep up its momentum, Dell has to keep hiring high-quality employees, Johnson said. "That continues to be their greatest challenge," he said. "You want to have good people in there and be able to ramp them up quickly."