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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (294)	11/14/1998 12:08:00 AM
From: xiaxia	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10713

Sun, nice FA on VISX. Just a few comments. 1. Are you assuming VISX is the only player in the field? Even if it is the dominate player now, we can not rule out the threat of new entry into the market, or threat from new/better technology. 2. I like the idea of thinking about long term future (10+ years). In fact, I believe that is the only way for average investors (not traders) to "strike gold." However, looking into the future is anything but easy. A solid long term strategy is needed. 3. I remember that Summit Tech (BEAM) was supposedly making a kill in 1995 when the technology was developed. Well, the stock saw its high in 95 at 30+ but now at 4+. Is Summit a competitor of VISX? 4. Looking back the stock price of VISX for the last few years. It seems the stock is more likely to go down than up. Of course, history does not always repeat itself. 5. Short term, there is some buying (accumulation). But the 50 MA is still under 100 MA. I'd rather wait till the the longer term up trend becomes clear. >The question then is, is it worth to pay $58 today to earn $1,000 over the next 10 years. I wonder if this is the right question. Paying $58 to earn $1000 is not the same to say that the stock price will be $1000 in 10 years. That would be very good though, an annualized return of 33%. However, nobody in their right mind can be even sure that the company will still be around in 10 years. Again, a long term strategy is need to make sure you sit tight when your prediction works in the right direction, and get out before disaster strikes.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (294)	11/17/1998 3:14:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10713

Amazing. I was wrong and I still made money! Usually I am right and I lose money, so this is a welcome change. The FED did cut the rate, and despite my prediction to the contrary, the bonds fell and I made some money on them. I think I will close that position soon and count my blessings ;) I love to discuss the fundamental analyses of VISX. As soon as I have time I will get to it. In the mean time, if any of you want to consider buying some VISX and before doing so wish to do some FA, I'd love to hear what you'll find out. BTW, I can't remember to whom I recommended shorting HWP, but if he made a wad-o-dough, I want my piece of the action ;) Sun Tzu

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (294)	11/20/1998 12:38:00 PM
From: Michael Sphar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10713

Excellent thread you have going here. I am trying to catch up but still hundreds of posts back. Glimpsed your discussion of VISX and thought I'd jump in. Visx is a local company for me. I drive by one of their facilities daily. I've been following it ever since my wife had her eyes fixed last Dec. I saw the equipment met with the Doc, watched the operation, paid the bills and she's fine. Thrilled, still. I was impressed. So much so, I had the operation a month ago. I'm thrilled too! I can see with a clarity and sharpness that surpasses my contacts and in total comfort, no glare issue, no more dark glasses. At 51, I've a lifetime of wearing glasses/contacts behind me. As typical of most people I also suffer from presbyopia (needs reading glasses for up close work) now that my eyes work right. Before, I was near sighted, 20/200 at best, now 20/15 both eyes. The operation was a snap. The recovery almost instantaneous, next day I was fine. I chose to have both eyes fully corrected. My wife went with monovision - one eye slightly detuned so reading glasses are not required. I wanted excellent distance vision in both eyes and will tolerate the reading glasses issue. The point is, for us near-sighted folks, there is now a real option. This is a wave, it is catching on. It is spreading by word of mouth. I have triggered a few others to do it so far, and this pyramid effect will continue. It will not be arithmetic but geometric in growth. My cost experience is different from the numbers you are quoting. The doctor's office here claimed $800 per eye for the Visx licensing fee. Perhaps that reflects the Silicon Valley cost of living effect. I did notice the Doc was driving a newly licensed late model beemer. When it comes to cutting on one's eyes, most people are quite concerned about such an operation. They will want to go with the "best", lots of times this is presumed to mean highest cost, and most of the time, this means the majority winner not some untried startup or some "also-ran". In this case VISX is generating the most license fees currently. I suspect this momentum will keep them in good stead.