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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex who wrote (22963)	11/14/1998 3:51:00 PM
From: Alex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

Should have been these two articles................. Gold supplies to rise 11.1% in 1998: CPM Platt's Metals Week, 9 Nov 1998, p 10-11, Financial Times, 5 Nov 1998, p 30 According to CPM Group's Gold Survey 1998, the total amount of refined gold available to the market will increase by 11.1% to 101.8 million oz in 1998 from 91.6 million oz in 1997. While South Africa's mine production will decline slightly in 1998, higher output elsewhere will boost world mine output to 64.9 million oz in 1998 from 64.1 million oz in 1997, and thereafter by 2.2% to 66.3 million oz in 1999. Demand from gold fabricators is forecast to rise 5.1% in 1998 to 106.1 million oz and by 2.3% in 1999 to 108.5 million oz. Gold miners are suffering at present price levels, and the global industry will have to cut production substantially if the price falls below $280/oz for any significant length of time. However, CPM suggests that the trends that have pushed the gold price down are poised to reverse themselves in late 1998 and 1999, paving the way for gold prices to move upwards. The report notes that the key to a gold market recovery continues to be investment demand. ********************************************************************** 1189/1998 Gold miners cutting exploration: Gold Institute Platt's Metals Week, 9 Nov 1998, p 11, Financial Times, 5 Nov 1998, p 30, Mining Engineering, Oct 1998, p 23 A survey by the Gold Institute reveals that leading gold mining companies in the USA and Canada are expected to cut expenditure on exploration by an estimated 28% to under $420 million in 1998. This follows cuts of 9% to $582 million in 1997. The Gold Institute calculates that in 1998, exploration expenditure in Latin America will decline by 39% - from $241 million to $148 million - while expenditure in Australia and the South Pacific will drop from $70 million to $61 million. The most significant factor in the decline in spending was the poor gold price, although political and economic instability in some regions has not helped. However, in spite of the current declines, exploration spending by US producers in many of these countries remains higher than it was in the early 1990s. By contrast, exploration expenditure in the USA has fallen in absolute terms over the same period, and now accounts for only 25% of US producers' total budgets, compared with 51% in 1993. The survey is based on spending by 18 gold companies which account for about 81% of total US gold production. A similar report by the Metals Economics Group (MEG) reports that gold mining companies are likely to look to acquisitions rather than new projects to increase their gold production.

To: Alex who wrote (22963)	11/14/1998 5:06:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

'...A couple of Y2K notes: On the road trip this week, I had dinner with a friend (one of the most prestigious business writers in the Bay area). He also is extremely well plugged in to the Y2K problem and deals with CEO's and CIO's of all kinds of businesses. They all tell him "Oh, things are great....everything will work out fine". I'm getting personally concerned about the quality of the Y2K information that is floating around because of several conversations I had at the power conference I attended. What I'm told confidentially doesn't square with what the CEO's and CIO's are saying to the press in general and the Y2K media in particular. Let be share some data points with you - as my Y2K Danger Index (tm) reading will likely be up this week when I update that index. I'm told that the lead time for Sun Frost DC freezers is now 23 weeks. A power consultant told me that 12 - 5 kW generators landed at his local Home Depot store in Canada on Monday about 3 weeks back and they were all gone by Tuesday afternoon. The same consultant told me that a lot of CIO's are saying one thing in the office - and buying generators for their families because they know better. (This consultant/confidential source bought one too...) Another source told me that his Kohler generator dealer can't get the factory to commit to delivery times prior to the first of the year. That's a 60 day lead time on generators. Are you paying attention here? I'm mentioning these data points so that when you see this week's Y2K Danger Index update Saturday, you will understand that the clock is ticking - loudly. At some point, the market will reach awareness and start to discount these indicators. Right now, I'm starting to watch airline stocks because no one I know is planning to fly anywhere during the first quarter of 2000 for fear the federal air traffic system won't be stabilized and fully operational. ... urbansurvival.com