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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (33710)	11/15/1998 9:43:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

ATG, What I have been noticing is falling in line with the broken trendline you and DAVID mentioned. My system is not designed for longer term projections as do E-WAVES. I also want to mention that BRITAIN(FTSE),FRANCE(FCHI),GERMANY(GDAX),JAPAN(N225) are showing significant signs of topping off soon for the short-term, which could promote weakness in our market. Also, these markets are technically weaker than ours since they have not produced significant HIGHER HIGHs yet, and still in a downtrend mode of LOWER LOWS & LOWER HIGHS. >>>>>>>>> INDEX UPDATE --------------------------- I got some info a recently thru a PM that I would like to share. It stated that for the last 3 years that: 1) MARKET LOWS ESTABLISHED IN OCT 2) THEN SHORT-TERM HIGHS AT LATE NOV/EARLY DEC 3) THEN SHORT-TERM CORRECTION OF 4-6% ENDING LATE DEC/EARLY JAN 4) THEN STRONG 1ST QUARTER RALLY MAKING SIGNIFICANT NEW HIGHS Firstly, the timing of the short-term highs in late NOV/DEC lines up with my forcast that the market should pull back about 5% within a month per/if the NEW HIGHs stays below 100 and the NEW LOWs stays between 10-50 for a month. So far we have had a major low in OCT and and strong rebound in NOV. Lets say we get the start of a 5% pullback in late NOv/DEC then the strong 1st quarter upswing to start in DEC/JAN. Here is my point - the 1st quarter upswing for the last 3 years occured in a BULL MARKET. What happens if we dont get that strong 1st quarter upswing or it is a weak upswing not producing new highs - could that then be a strong/major signal that there is still strong bearishness in the market that could continue into 1999. If the market does not get the strong 1st quarter ralley to significant new highs, then I will suspect that the volitility to the downside/trading range will increase again. Then for those who play/trade nimblely both sides should have the opportunity to do well. I am still holding to my position of a RANGE TRADING TREND until the market sets new highs on strong/improved market internals, and will continue to play both sides. As previously mentioned, if rates are cut and the NEW HIGHs stay below 100, I will not go long since I will expect a short-term top shortly thereafter. If the rates are not cut, I will immediately initiate DEC or JAN PUTs upon the announcement, looking for only about a 5% pullback, but if the pullback is greater - I'll take it. <<<<<<<<<<<<<< SEEYA

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (33710)	11/15/1998 10:26:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Arik: Using a Theoretical Daily Semi-Log Chart, using only the low clusters and ignoring the low spikes, I find the recent rally is still below that previous Bull Support Trend Line. (I know that is taking liberties.) However, if I use the lows spikes as in the chart you linked, I find the current rally has penetrated the old Bull Support Trend Line and is currently buoyed above. True, in both plots the old Trend Line was violated with the pullback that began in July. Do you see any significance that the old Trend line has been penetrated to the upside using the chart in your link as a trend line plot guide? Regards, LG