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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zardoz who wrote (23479)	11/27/1998 7:09:00 AM
From: Mark Bartlett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116796

Hutch, <<Today or Monday, the XAU will confirm a break out of it's pennant downwards.>> All I need to know, to know the price of gold is going to come under pressure, is to see the the DOW et al back to ridiculous levels. The FEDS will want to defend their stupidity - hence attack gold. If there is any truth to the fact that the Feds arranged the gold bailout of LTCM, then we know the "free" markets" are no longer free. In this scenario, long-term history can not be our guide ..... we are subject to the whims and fancy of a few individuals that have attained enough power to do with the system what they want. Will that last - I do not know .... but as long as it does, gold will be ....... shall we say... guided along .... and tainted as an asset of last resort. If this sounds to much like a conspiracy theory - so be it .... the pattern has happened so frequently in recent times, it is almost too predictable. MB

To: Zardoz who wrote (23479)	11/27/1998 10:33:00 AM
From: Giraffe	Respond to of 116796

>>the MACD is in a downward trend. << I don't see anything resembling a downtrend in the MACD - seems to be in a very neutral place. >>, the red line is now fully on the upswing again. mypage.direct.ca; Interesting chart - what do you make of the strong downtrend in the red line (lower highs, lower lows)?

To: Zardoz who wrote (23479)	11/27/1998 11:20:00 AM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116796

Hutch: I have reviewed your chart. I have likewise been following what you refer to as a pennant, but which I would refer to as a triangle. (To be a pennant it would have to appear after a sharp near vertical upmove) this is important because pennants are almost always continuation moves. Triangles on the other hand can be continuation moves or reversal moves. The breakout from the triangle is inconclusive because as Magee points out in his books breakouts that occur near the apex of the triangle are unreliable regardless of the direction ot the breakout. I was interested in your observations regarding the cup and handle formation. In my view the formation is too short to be of predictive value, but I am unaware of any theory that relates to the neckline of these formations. I would be interested if you know of any writings on this point. Your observations on MACD are interesting, but I just do not think the divergence you refer to is significant. I think you are wrong about the H&S. The formation is quirky, but it is there. It is also difficult to decide where the left shoulder begins. However viewed on a weekly chart it is more evident. Also, as I pointed out in my post. The formation is not confirmed until there is a breakout to the upside on high volume. Absent this, all we have is a possibility. Your observations regarding the currencies are interesting, but I am not sure whether this technique has been established to have predictive value. At any rate, I did not mean to imply by my previous post that I think the next move is up. I will let the charts make that decision for me. While I certainly do believe that those who buy gold here will do well in the long term. The short term is "iffy". Live long and prosper, Little joe

To: Zardoz who wrote (23479)	11/27/1998 1:28:00 PM
From: C Hudson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116796

Hutch, It is clear you have many different forms of analysis at your fingertips and are well versed in them. From reading your posts though over a few months, it is crystal clear that you have taken a very strong stance of being extremely bearish on gold. It is my opinion, but I believe you LOOK for anything bearish to support your strong conviction. The gold bulls can be the same. I have been known to look for anything positive. There are some MASSIVE FUNDAMENTAL changes that are to occur soon, the launch of the EURO and Y2K. These changes will overide and technical patterns in the charts. IMHO

To: Zardoz who wrote (23479)	11/27/1998 3:21:00 PM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116796

Hutch: Today the XOI oil index broke out of a symetrical triangle to the upside. The breakout in terms of the magnitude of the move was clear. However upside breakouts need volume to confirm and unfortunately, there are no volume figures for the XOI. If it is valid, I think it could be construed as bullish for gold, if it portends higher oil prices or bullish for the market, if it is being fueled by the XON Takeover of Mobile. Any thoughts? Live long and prosper, Little Joe