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To: lkj who wrote (18902)	11/28/1998 11:22:00 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

China will devalue in 1999. I said it once I will say it again! Dow Jones at 7800 again!

To: lkj who wrote (18902)	11/29/1998 9:35:00 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Khan - regarding China (and its GDP growth rate) -- in case you did not hear about this (and I only learned about it from Ron Insana on CNBC during a "ticker talk" segment) (if I am remembering correctly) ... The Economist recently had a cover story on China (the illustration on the cover was a "black hole" that was either sucking China into it, or was China as the black hole, sucking everything else into it) (I only saw the image for a second or so). Anyway, I think this Economist article was the source of the news item that China's GDP growth rate is being exaggerated quite a lot; and continued hopes that a rapid economic growth rate in China will help to make things somehow work out "okay" are somewhat "wishful thinking." I have still not yet actually read the article myself. The Economist has a website economist.com which is one of those sites where they will let you sneak a peek (for free) at some of their content, depending on whether or not it is recent. (I'll check out their website again momentarily). Jon.

To: lkj who wrote (18902)	11/29/1998 10:27:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

lkj, your field research into the China situation is quite different from my recent experience except mine was just a phone survey. I would very much like to see first hand the changes myself. A few months ago, I posted about the difference between a system based government vs a people based government. The US has the strongest system based government in the world. We can have presidents out screwing around and the country will function without missing a beat. China, Japan and many Asian nations are people based governments. Right now China has the strongest leadership in the Jiang Zhu duo. They can make up rules as they go, not limited by the checks and balances of a strong system based government. I don't believe any of the GDP, growth, unemployment statistics out of China. They are all cooked, some are rare while others are well done. Politicians and liars have the same meaning in all countries in the world. The Chinese politicians have the greatest ability, under their closed system, to distort facts and figures to give people some confidence things are heading in the right direction. This is sorely missed in Japan with Obuchi and there are no leaders in sight to take them out of their downward spiral. By the way, just some PLA news. Though Great Wall was not specifically mentioned, let us hope that something good may come of this soon. scmp.com Ramsey