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To: Saturn V who wrote (69230)	12/1/1998 2:51:00 AM
From: lkj	Respond to of 186894

Hi Saturn V, Thank you VERY much for your detailed analysis on K7 vs. Intel processors. Your analysis definitely make me reconsider my decisions. Khan

To: Saturn V who wrote (69230)	12/1/1998 6:23:00 AM
From: Duker	Respond to of 186894

Saturn V, Thank you for the insights. Contributions like yours are the reason that I subscribe to this service. I am surely going to add your commentary to my "PII/Katmai/.18 v. K-7 mental database." Further, I will print out this post and put it on my wall. So, when I am reading a post full of personal attacks or technical analysis, I can remember why I paid for access to this site. --Duker

To: Saturn V who wrote (69230)	12/1/1998 6:30:00 AM
From: DownSouth	Respond to of 186894

Thank you for your clear, insightful analysis.

To: Saturn V who wrote (69230)	12/1/1998 10:17:00 AM
From: Scumbria	Respond to of 186894

Saturn V, K7 memory architecture The K7 has a 128K L1 cache vs. a 32K cache on PII. Benchmarks of CeleronA vs. Xeon indicate that Winstone runs very effectively in a 128K cache, with little improvement beyond 128K (as in Xeon.) Despite the longer L2 latencies in the initial versions of K7, it should score higher on Winstone than Intel CPU's. AMD has to recreate the entire CPU motherboard infrastructure for the K-7 K7 fits into an Alpha motherboard. DEC/CPQ have a little experience in the motherboard business. I do not think that the K-7 will make a significant dent in Intel stock price in the long run Xeon's are keeping Intel's margins above 50%. Any competition in the server business will affect Intel's bottom line. Scumbria

To: Saturn V who wrote (69230)	12/1/1998 10:21:00 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Saturn, RE:"3) AMD has to recreate the entire CPU motherboard infrastructure for the K-7 . Brand new processor cartridges, chipsets and mother boards have to be developed. AMD has no design expertise or manufacturing capability in these areas.[So far AMD has ridden Intel's coatails and used the infrastructure developed by Intel]." These is my greatest concerns about AMD but it appears that AMD has learned from their prior failure, K5. K-6 was a Nextgen design...the K7 is an inhouse design BUT AMD brought in a DEC team... (have they learned?) Processor cartridges shouldn't be that difficult to design and make dies for. Chipset is a concern. AMD has demoed two. VIA and Ali have announced projects to develop chipsets for the K7. AMD does have some experience developing chipsets with the AMD640 which was turned over to VIA which turned it into the MPV2 and later MPV3. Still, AMD doesn't have too much chipset manufacturing experience and the Taiwan Chipset makers are used to copying Intels chipsets and that usually takes a couple of revisions. Motherboards. With close ties to VIA, I'd expect FIC to have a board and Asus has already announced they will make a K7 board. Asus is the premier Taiwan mobo maker. With Ali in the fray expect Aopen to make a board as well. Since Slot A is mechanically compatable with Slot 1, I don't see a problem producing motherboards for the K7. RE:"So either AMD will have to sell more stock and develop everything internally or depend upon other partners to build the infrastructure. The safe bet for AMD is to find other partners, and it appears to be working with Taiwanese chipset designers and motherboard makers." ---- And other partners they have found. IBM and Motorola. K7 has been running quite nicely in Motorolas labs for months. As you stated, the mission here is to take the K7 to .18 and copper. Again, AMD has realized their weaknesses and taken steps to cover them. RE:"Problems with the K-7 infrastructure are surfacing already .It is rumored that the first K-7 chipsets have a L2 with 1/3 processor speed, and the main memory bus will only be capable of 100Mhz .If this is true K-7 cannot reach its potential." ------ Maybe, maybe not. 1/3 of 600Mhz is 200 MHz last I checked. At any rate the K7s infrastructure is such that it can be easily improved over time. Getting a release at a lower common denominator is still a release....waiting for full speed will just delay release. Seems AMD has taken the prudent step. RE:"Over the past 15 years Intel has been an outstanding investment, and I have continued to expanded my holdings .I do not think that the K-7 will make a significant dent in Intel stock price in the long run .However there may be short term peturbations caused by AMD's campaign to gain support for its processor." ---- Can't argue about the first part. We differ about the second part. As you alluded to, AMD has to EXECUTE a lot of new things in order to bring the K7 to market. History suggests that AMD can't do this but they have taken steps to cover weaknesses. The design team coming from DEC, well versed in getting cpus to run fast, Taiwan chip makers, IBM and Motorola for process technology etc.. Looks good on paper...on paper... On the other hand, in the short term, until we see some production K7s at least, I don't see much of an effect on Intels stock price...which will be more the slave of general market conditions and the computer market in general. Intel still has no competition in the high end and the Celeron is holding it's own in the low end. Loss of market share to AMD is is probably a foregone conclusion but the pie gets bigger and Intel is able to hold margins. Longer term could be a problem but only if AMD can execute. Not really a worry right now but I'll be very leery of holding Intel if AMD somehow executes on the K7...just too early to know... IMHO, a long term holder of Intel shouldn't be in a hurry to sell it. About March of '99 I'd start to worry a little bit. This would be right after the "proposed" Feb 28 release of the Katmai which should boost the stock. Jim

To: Saturn V who wrote (69230)	1/26/1999 9:08:00 PM
From: Saturn V	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

I just got the Jan 25 issue of Microprocessor Report in the mail. Interesting article on Intel's 0.18micron process [ article not available on the Internet ]. Title- Intel raises the ante with with p858. Interesting excerpts- " Intel disclosed details of its next generation 0.18-micron p858 process; this month, tiny beads of perspiration have begun forming on the brow of Intel's x86 competitors." " The process should enable Intel to maintain its preeminent position, even with only modest enhancements to its existing processor designs." The article shows that Intel's process stacks up well against IBM's best process, but requires very little new equipment making it relatively cheap to manufacture. This article confirms my assertion in post # 69272 that K-7 will be checkmated easily by Intel's new process. [In December Microprocessor Report was waxing euphoric about how K-7 was going to dethrone Intel ].