Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bernard Levy who wrote (9485)	12/6/1998 1:22:00 AM
From: DreamWeaver	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12468

Bernard, OT on CLEC's With all due respect to your knowledge of the forces and technologies of this grand great industry, I just don't see them (the CLEC's)as long termers in telecomm. Too much BIG money to make sure of that and "market" them right out of exisitence when the time is right. It seems that we could expand your list of CLEC's and want to be Clec's to the hundreds... What does it really take, besides a termination point in an end office and maybe a small switch/PBX/router...(outsource cust. serv. and billing) Not much capital required really. Opportunity to make some dough trading them in the short term I suppose. The RBOC's will allow some of it to go on since it is in thier best interest to look to the FCC as if they are "opening up the local market" Simple, expandtion after deregulation, then contraction into a core group of 4-5 business that support end to end bundled service IMHO. Is this not what happened to the airline industry in '82 ?? DW P.S. I'd like to take a look at the bus. cases and financials of all these 1010-131 outfits!! They too seem like flashes in the pan.

To: Bernard Levy who wrote (9485)	12/7/1998 3:18:00 PM
From: Hal Barnett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12468

Bernard, Responding to your request for comment on CLECs, I am strongly influenced by the company's plan and how well they are executing against their plan. WCII has a national (and now apparently international) scope vs. a regional focus for many of their competitors. I went to MarketGuide and pulled out the Snapshot and Highlights pages on the CLECs in your list. Snapshot gives a summary of the plan re scope and the Highlights page gives quarterly revenues. I don't think EPS is a fair measure to use to evaluate these companies this early in their business development. One measure of the effectiveness of a company in executing its plan is to examine sales growth. I list quarterly revenue and summed up the trailing 4 quarters to get a chart of annualized revenues (See Table 1). I dropped HYPT from your list because their revenues were much lower than all the other companies. Table 1 Trailing 4 quarters revenue in $millions Date WCII ICIX ESPI MCLD NXLK 12/97 72.9 247.9 59.0 267.9 57.6 3/98 107.3 340.7 78.3 366.5 74.1 6/98 150.7 480.8 102.4 475.6 94.5 9/98 193.4 602.0 131.8 574.9 118.9 I then use the trailing 4 quarters of revenue to establish a rate of revenue growth. With the annual revenue of 12/97 = 100 I get the scaled revenue results in Table 2. Next I dropped the companies that had scaled 9/98 revenues under 200. The five survivors of this process were: WCII, ICIX, ESPI, MCLD and NXLK. Table 2 Trailing 4 quarters revenue scaled to 12/97 = 100 Date WCII ICIX ESPI MCLD NXLK 12/97 100 100 100 100 100 3/98 147 137 133 137 129 6/98 207 194 174 178 164 9/98 265 243 223 215 207 All five companies have strong rates of revenue growth. WCII appears to be the best company in this group. Regards, ...Hal