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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FR1 who wrote (29027)	12/5/1998 3:51:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

In summary: if you think the web is dead sell this stock and go buy T bills - you really should not be here. If you believe in the web you gotta take anything you hear, especially bear talk, with a grain of salt. IMHO, buy AMZN and buy some puts below it for safety. Don't sell and don't miss the train like I have twice now. Franz, That was a nice post but with a lot of flaws as is common with many posts. I do not wish to take the time to address such a long post nor to comment on your missing the momentum train. Just keep in mind, that past performance is not an indicator of the future of a stock price. I post here often for five reasons: 1. I enjoy the debate and the camaraderie. It is like my hobby. I am not expecting my posts to affect the stock price of AMZN. 2. I am short AMZN via shares not puts and you only stated the way to benefit from a fall in AMZN is via puts. That is far from true. I can prove that from the last few days. 3. I am interested in this mania that makes no economic sense. Please do not think I believe the net is dead. I love the net. I spend a lot of time here. The success of the net has almost no correlation to the success of AMZN 4. Now, let's say you did the same thing with AMZN. How much would it cost you? Ans: $29,500. That's a big owwie! Most people can't aford to burn $30,000. I can and have burned four times that on AMZN alone although gaining back now.Bu not through puts. 5. I guess the brokers are idiots. The bears on this thread are much smarter. I am assuming you are referring to analysts not brokers. I find and have proved that most analysts do not have a clue. Let's see how this plays out and how smart those analysts really were. Glenn

To: FR1 who wrote (29027)	12/5/1998 4:10:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Frank, your views are correct on many things, but I believe your thinking is at the other extreme of the pendulum - you don't see the longer term implications of price competition on the Internet. You understand the Internet as it is during this growth phase but still don't grok what it is yet to become. That's OK, you're up to par with most people's thinking and that's what important to the stock price. "Publishers deliver, at their expense, stock to Amazon's warehouses. AMZN pays nothing to the publisher until someone orders and pays for the title. AMZN sells stock to pubic at retail or at a slight discount. AMZN then pays publisher at a 55% discount to the retail. If publisher wants their stock back the publisher pays to have it shipped back. Lets see now - to make money you buy low and sell high. Let's take a $25 item. Buy Low (AMZN cost to acquire) = $0. Sell High = $25 - $11.25 = $13.75 profit. Even with a discount to the public you make money. Somebody please explain to me how this model is a money loser." The problem with the above is that this IS THE NORM for the book business - all competitors take advantage of the same supply dynamics. This model for supplying inventory up front and charging for it latter evolved because small book stores could not manage otherwise. Amazon.com buys 60% of their books from Ingram which is now owned by Barnes & Noble. With every supplier able to take advantage of the same supply and delivery dynamics as Amazon and the ease of competitive entry and comparison shopping greatly facilitated by the web, the outcome will eventually be devastating price competition. Amazon.com won't have the profits many nearsighted ANALS project, IMO. For the next year or so, the force is with you. But in relatively quick order as far as new market develops go, price competition will prove to be an over-riding factor.

To: FR1 who wrote (29027)	12/5/1998 4:25:00 PM
From: jach	Respond to of 164684

<Number of brokers recommending as: Strong Buy 5 Moderate Buy 7 Hold 5 Moderate Sell 0 Strong Sell 0 I guess the brokers are idiots. The bears on this thread are much smarter.> Exactly right!, aimo.

To: FR1 who wrote (29027)	12/5/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: jach	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

<The easy way to do it is to buy puts.> Historically 80% chance of losing all or part of you money when going long on options. Easy, but most of the time un-intelligent way.

To: FR1 who wrote (29027)	12/5/1998 4:32:00 PM
From: jach	Respond to of 164684

<don't miss the train> The train usually left on time as always, missing it one time or two times means nothing; as always after the facts seem so intelligently obvious for many such as the follow-the-herd Brokers and Analysts. aimho.

To: FR1 who wrote (29027)	12/5/1998 4:37:00 PM
From: jach	Respond to of 164684

<Would believe they are monks and the Pope has ordered them to save the masses from bad guys?> imo, the Pope will probably said something like this "One share of AMZN can feed a few dozen hungry and poor kids in some country for a month".

To: FR1 who wrote (29027)	12/5/1998 9:18:00 PM
From: Jan Garrity Allen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

HERE!!!HERE!!!! U R right on the MONEY and the short lemmings on this and other internet boards seem to be paniced and angry!! One sure fire way to quiet the rage within is to go LONG for the rocket to the MOON!! I believe as more interventions and regulations r placed by the Nasdaq commission then the stocks will stabilize in their volatility and the internet will be the most prolific sector for those who r patient!! A deer Irish friend of mine would always say "If wishes were horses paupers would ride!!"Great post and THANKX!!!