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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7442)	12/18/1998 6:43:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 10921

Why all this tortuous math about "old" orders vs "new" orders? The bookings are right there in the press release, and they are up 67% since September. semi.org

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7442)	12/18/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, The simple truth is that this is the 2nd consecutive increase in bookings and the 1st consecutive increase in Billings. If you are arguing that this is what happens when the industry is shrinking, then I'm disappointed with how you are describing reality. It is rather unlike the impression that I had previously held of you. Merry Christmas, Ian.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7442)	12/19/1998 3:57:00 AM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine - If new orders are less than old orders, then future revenue expectations are less than current actual revenue. That sounds like shrinkage to me. This is of course true if orders are static, or for lack of any information, you must assume that they are static. But if you know that orders are not static, and are actually sloping upward, then this is an untrue statement. That is the point we are trying to make - your assumption is true only if you throw out some of the information. Thus the real question is how reliable is that information that you are throwing away (the slope of orders). If it is unreliable as a predictor of future orders then you are correct. OTOH, if it is accurate, then you are wrong. We believe the latter, you believe the former. Clark

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7442)	1/5/1999 8:39:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, nni.nikkei.co.jp is this retooling a viable alternative? I am beginning to think that the semi eq companies are trying to start a new chip war but no semi company is willing to fork out the money. They seem to be looking for alternatives that are less costly than that hoped for by the semi eq companies. At the current stock values, it appears that the street has already assumed a recovery in this sector is all but guaranteed. If every fab choose to follow Samsung's route, how much revenue would that generate for the likes of AMAT? Ramsey