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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (7444)	12/18/1998 9:12:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Sigh... Amazing how much people can argue over a few simple numbers. I know the semi picture has been improving. I've been saying that myself for several months: Message 6158377 All I am saying is that dancing in the streets when the BtB is less than one is premature. Sheesh! Katherine

To: Ian@SI who wrote (7444)	12/25/1998 6:27:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian, you are too harsh, the truth is that the absolute level of the shipments are running under 50% of what they were at the peak of the last cycle (I believe they were running higher then $1.8 Billion monthly), but the stocks of the leaders are pretty close to their peaks at the same time. It is also worthwhile to look at the new fabs announcement rate which is running now (smoothed out) at $.5 billions/month relative to close to $4-5 billion at the peak (which occurred in late 1995). I can make a case for enthusiasm for the chip makers, they are finding ways to double production with minimal capital expenditures just by reducing features and increasing yields. But the current capacity of the equipment suppliers (I estimate it at between $45 to $55 billions annually) is about 3 times their current shipment rates (of about $15 to $20 billions annually). For few of the leaders in the field, current valuation maybe fair to slightly overvalued, but for many others, I believe we have gone overboard. Zeev