Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Walker who wrote (32171)	1/2/1999 12:31:00 AM
From: Tae Spam Kim	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 164684

The net e-tailer market continues to be hot. This is THE commerce revolution of our generation. From main street to department stores to malls to superstore/warehouse (Cotsco, Priceclub) and now to Amazon.com and Ebay. The executives at Amazon are marketing geniuses. In every order they send you bookmarks and Amazon.com labeled post-it notes. So whenever you use these things, you're are reminded of their brand name. Last week they sent me a neat little Amazon.com coffee mug (which was sent last year too) as a "thank you" for being a good customer. Also Buy.com sent me this HUGE Buy.com mousepad too. These companies are trying to buy my loyalty. I'm not complaining. :) It's crazy to think that Egghead.com, which in a sense, just started earlier this year (in terms of a full force site push) is already considered a leading e-tailer. Along with the success of 800.com which JUST started a few weeks ago. 800.com GAVE away 3 DVDs for $1 to acquire thousands of customers. I think AOL once wrote off a $250 per customer acquisition cost, so giving away 3 DVDs may be a bargain. On a side note, I think one of the slickest shopping sites on the net is NECX.com. They have low prices and a great interface. Unfortunately, it is currently private. I also love BUY.COM "below wholesale" prices. Gotta love it when a company is selling products below their cost. -Tae Kim tigerinvestor.com 'The site for aggressive investors..

To: Gary Walker who wrote (32171)	1/2/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

I'm new to the thread, I've been watching this one for a while and I finally bit the bullet and shorted at 340 last week. Here's why. (Its not just valuation.) Could Amazon go to 700 given that it is already overvalued by a factor of at least 10x? Sure. Will I be short the stock if it does? No. Thats one reason why I chose Amazon - there is little chance the thing will double in one day, so I will have a chance to cover if things are getting out of hand. But I did not short it on valuation alone, though that was the biggest factor. The timing seems exactly right for the top. 1) the book retailing business SUCKS for 11 months out of the year - after Christmas seems like the perfect time for a top 2) Manias like this tend to peak at year ends - when the holders who have been waiting a few weeks to defer their tax bill another year all sell at once 3) The almost vertical momentum has at the very least paused. If it takes off again, I would probably cover at about 450 no matter what the valuation - I'm not stupid. 4) The valuation gives me a chance of covering at 20 if things go right, i.e if the stock winds up fairly valued and I am patient enough to wait it out. BTW, I think Barnes & Noble looks like another good short right now if you don't want to do AMZN. A LOT of hedge funds are long BKS and short AMZN. When AMZN breaks down, they will do two things. Buy (i.e. cover) AMZN and sell BKS. Maybe my strategy is to short AMZN and if I get 100 points or so and BKS hasn't broken down yet, then switch to this related play with lower risk of a major whipsaw. Wish me luck JJC