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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (11707)	1/4/1999 5:07:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

I decided not to close out the Net trade, My original thought was to stop myself out if the high to low was over 1.5%. The high being 1261 puts the close out of the trade at 1240 but it dropped so sharply I decided to let it go. If the models go short tonight I'll pull the trade off. I am starting to scan for "next day" patterns after a day like this; it's early in the search and I only have it down to 27 examples at this point but most of them have wild moves. Two of them ran up a bit then sold off more than 100 Dow points, three of them backed off only a little bit then rocketed to as high as plus 189. So the early guess is to get long early and have a solid stop. I have an idea that it will whip around, driving up, then down into midday, but that's just an early hunch based on the data I'm looking at.

To: Tom Trader who wrote (11707)	1/4/1999 9:00:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

Tom There was a time in the latter 1/2 of 98 that your system caused a number of whipsaw signals. This is not specific to the S&P - for instance one time I remember it happening to the BKX in this same time frame. However, I know you concentrate here on the S&P. At least one time you were whipsawed due to money management but the trade would have worked out. During this time a number of people all over SI were whipsawed with their systems. I can't remember the time specifically, but I am sure you don't forget that one due to money management. Anyway, have you tried to isolate what the common denominator might be between now and then? Obviously, one difference is the addition of AOL (not sure of the effective date or the weight). An argument could be made that this stock would become more stable since it is added to the S&P. I argue that it will cause the index to become even more volatile and subject to an even greater whipsaw action. I wonder if the craziness of one stock - an internet stock - could effect your system going forward so that it needs an adjustment or an ancillary indicator to be used just with the S&P 500.