Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4023)	1/9/1999 6:57:00 PM
From: Bexar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

God, your a long winded! I see you've compared ATHM to dial ups. ATHM is far superior! Not even in the same boat! It is more like being on a 802.3 LAN, always on, always there and FAST! I don't believe you will ever go long. In fact, your probably short now over the weekend. But my guess is that you are one of those who will stick around to be the devil's advocate. State your position like a man! You're short ATHM, huh?

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4023)	1/9/1999 8:04:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29970

Frank, judging by the defensive responses you are receiving to your well-thought out post, ATHM does seem to be becoming an internut. From the business summary statement carried on Yahoo: "ATHM is a provider of internet services over the cable television infrastructure and leased digital telecommunication lines to consumers and businesses. " However, this statement does a disservice to the important fact that "the Company's primary offering, the @Home service, allows residential subscribers to connect their personal computers via cable modems to a high-speed Internet backbone network developed and managed by the Company." (from their SEC filing). So ATHM is a little bit of an ISP, a little bit of an infrastructure provider/developer, and a little bit of a Portal (which they call @Media), trying to leverage its high-speed servers, routers, and growing backbone by striking relationships with as many regional cable companies as possible -- 18 so far in North Americal and Europe, according to their SEC filing. However, ATHM is not, IMO, an access company, per se. Although, this point is seldom articulated, rather it portends the abilities of all of its distribution partners which tends to obscure the distinction. I don't know how you would define an access company. But if you look at AOL, or most other ISP/Portals, they all depend on external partners, from leasing backbone bandwidth to partnering with content providers. I think all of these companies are groping to find what will evolve as the winning combination of access, content, and infrastructure for their business model. ATHM is betting heavily on its high-speed services, and has a lead at this point but the game is still in the first inning.

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4023)	1/9/1999 8:08:00 PM
From: E. Davies	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

I'm trying to understand what ATHM is too. My biggest questions are: 1) What of the physical connection belongs to ATHM and what does not.? 2) What exactly is the use of the ATHM internal network? 3) How much will ATHM succeed as a content provider? 4) How will ATHM develop past the current contract restrictions to what the internet needs to be? To detail 1) As I understand it (please correct me & add proper terminlogy) HFC (Hybrid Fiber-Coax) means that fiber is run from a central point to local neighborhood coax distribution points. The MSO's owns the wires. Who owns the electronics of the distribution points? Who owns the architecture of the local network? How much of the networking is done at that point or are these points basically "dumb"? Who owns the electronics at the fiber central point? Where does TCI stop and ATHM start? I want to know most of all because when service becomes overloaded (and it will) who is responsible for modifying the local distribution to balance/divide the local nets to increase performance? It also has a lot to do with how easy it will be for someone else (like say AOL) to jump into the same space and compete. 2) I think you implied that you think the ATHM national network isn't used for bypassing the internet backbone and it's limitations. If not that, then what is it for? Only to speed up cache fetching? Isnt that essentially the same thing? I picture exactly that ATHM will become an seperate world of broadband connected too the "slow" world when necessary to access stuff outside the ATHM domain. This will mean good business as a broadband site host provider. Do you think my picture is wrong? I'm sure 2.5Gb links is only a start, how high do you think they need go and how achievable is it? I dont have enough feel for a network to guess how many users would use one link at any one time to estimate. 3) So far it's not been clear to me to what degree ATHM intends to be more an ISP (like say Mindspring) vs. a content provider (like AOL) 4) Someday TV will come over broadband internet. Its too obvious to even doubt it. The massive infrastructure required to keep a measly few streaming media channels (TV) in the midst of hundreds of thousands going on in the net just wont be worth maintaining, if nothing else the bandwith is too valuable to waste on analog. I just don't know how we get from here to there. The cable's will guard thier crown jewels with everything they have but the transition is inevitable. They cant disallow streaming media or they will destroy the whole value of broadband and thier investment in it, yet they cant allow it either or they destroy their primary revenue source. I'm guessing that maybe broadband capable of streaming media will be a "premium service" that eventually everyone will subscribe to, just like Touch Tone Telephone is a "premium service" today. I picture also someday you will rent a "cable converter" that converts IP streaming video to old fashioned analog TV. "Cable ready" TV's will mean they are directly internet capable with built in cable modems & browsers. I WANT FEEDBACK FROM ANYONE WHO KNOWS!!! Please, thank you. Eric

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4023)	1/9/1999 8:20:00 PM
From: Climber	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Hi Frank, <<I have seen neither any mention of caching nor NAP bypassing, but both probably are included in their plans, or at least they should be.> Does this explain it? @Home System Architecture: home.com Regards, Climber

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4023)	1/9/1999 8:24:00 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

I can see your comment about ATHM becoming an island happening for short while, but majority will not stand by and be left out of the coming broadband internet. Thanks for your comments. Greg

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4023)	1/9/1999 9:05:00 PM
From: toothid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Frank: You seem to be well informed on the ISP area. Have seen you post on L-3 and other areas. I am wondering if you follow a company called RCN tecknology. RCNC. A spin off company of L-3. My question-- 2nd request-- How do you think it compares to ATHM. RCNC is active in the East coast--Boston area. High density market interest. Would be very interested to hear your thoughtsor any others on this thread. Much Obliged Doc

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4023)	1/9/1999 9:32:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

Thanks for your excellent work on the ATHM thread. I've copied your latest "little confused here" and plan to spend some time with it ... my initial sense after two readings is that I agree in your assessment of the bandwidth dynamics and perhaps do not agree with ... what? ... the implied skepticism as to ATHM's potential for a enduring gatekeeper position? I need to reread what you've said and think about it some more. The questions I have for myself are: -- Does ATHM's relationships with it's partners cut it enough slack to create an intrinsic and defensible value position for itself? -- What are possible business elements of ATHM's value going forward? ---- as ISP? ---- as broadband technology provider? ---- as portal? ---- as content provider (broadband-specific / multimedia )? -- What unique business advantages does ATHM have? ---- terms of relationships? ---- natural dynamics of relationships? ---- proprietary values? -- What are the dynamics of change for ATHM going forward? ---- hardware changes (optical, wireless, etc) ---- how do new service trends (esp. VoIP) affect relationships (esp. T)? ---- does ATHM show skills necessary to navigate chaos (as AMZN, AOL have done)? ---- can management develop and grow critical relationships? -- Specific issues ---- How will ATHM address QoS issues (the forthcoming QoS "balloon payment")? ---- Can ATHM create sticky customers? ---- What about the quality of customer service from TCI, etc? These are my initial thoughts ... I'm just starting to get familiar with ATHM's story ... and look forward to feedback! I suppose I'll look at their business model next, make my own spreadsheet which includes the larger context in which they operate, and see what numbers fall out with different assumptions. I find your comments delightful, provocative, and inspiring, Frank. Your action improves the quality of my action. This is profoundly appreciated. Thanks much!

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4023)	1/9/1999 11:49:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

The number of things ATHM is not is infinite. It is hopeless to find the thing that it is not which it thinks it is. This is not a presumptive company. They don't push vaporservice. Since it is difficult to supply the public demand for their product, they don't even push their service. SONET is only temporary. Transport protocol isn't very important when you are trying to achieve a presence, any presence. As ATHM's network develops some scale operational maturity, demand will drive them to upgrade to IP only. This isn't particularly difficult or expensive. ATT has stated they will build a firewall between VoIP and broadband. This neutralizes regulatory concerns and maintains the private system status of ATHM's delivered broadband. How much a critical need costs is not relevant. The money comes from where no one expects. There are no conflicts between ATHM and the cable partners. ATHM's success leverages whatever they do. It is good that ATHM is not an access company per se, but it is getting all the provisions in place anyway. The only other competing technology to cable is DSL and it is far more lumpy even if it is substantially built. That's highly unlikely given its higher cost and inferior quality. It's a technological dead end. Why would anyone want to preserve copper when the long haul is going to fiber? Broadband makes replacing short haul copper imperative to communications companies intending to survive at any cost. That's usually the cost of survival. A discussion about ATHM's coming Pure net isn't premature. It has already occurred. A Pure solution would strand them in a superior product. It is not they who must talk to the outside, rather embedded elements must talk to them even if they have to re-arrange their faces. Such elements must come up to the superior product or build an equivalent that inter-operates. No one believes that ATHM's network will arise instantaneously. That is neither desirable nor possible.